Golden Rankings, final regular season & playoff scenario

Final Regular Season Golden Rankings



Instead of our usual metrics, we offer a playoff scenario based on these rankings. Our ideal playoff is quite simple - every conference champion gets in, so long as they are ranked 50 or higher among FBS teams in our rankings. The rest of the spots are filled by at-large teams with no limits on the number of teams from one conference. First round sites are on campus, but no at-large team is allowed to host a game, thereby preserving some of the pressure of the regular season.
Our auto qualifiers this year (with ranking):
SEC-Auburn (1)
MW - TCU(2)
B12 - Oklahoma (3)
Pac 10 - Oregon (4)
WAC - There was a three-way tie for the WAC, as Hawaii, Boise and Nevada all finished with just one loss. I couldn't find any official tiebreakers, so I went with the highest rated team, Boise (5)
Big Ten - Wisconsin (12) - Interesting that OSU and MSU are both rated ahead of the Badgers
ACC - Virginia Tech (15)
CUSA - Central Florida (29)
Big East - UConn (35)
MAC - Miami, O (49)
The Sun Belt loses their bid this year as conference champ FIU was 81st.
At Large teams -
Ohio State (6)
Michigan State (7)
Missouri (8)
Arkansas (9)
Stanford (10)
LSU (11)

The matches:
#16 Miami, Oh @ #1 Auburn
#9 Ohio State @ #8 Central Florida (as a conference champ, UCF moves up to host a game)

#13 Arkansas @ #4 Oregon
#12 Stanford @ #5 Boise -- might consider flipping this game with the 6/11 matchup to avoid a possible Oregon / Stanford 2nd round game

#14 LSU @ #3 Oklahoma (whoa Nelly!)
#11 Missouri @ #6 Wisconsin (Badgers moved up to host game)

#10 Michigan State @ #7 Virginia Tech (Hokies moved up)
#15 UConn @ #2 TCU

Wouldn't this be nice!

Golden Rankings, Week 13

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Minnesota, up 23 spots with a Floyd of Rosedale win over free-fallin' Iowa
Biggest Loser (FBS): UL-Monroe, down 25 with a one point loss to rival UL-Lafayette.
Top Riser (FCS) : Western Illinois, up 19
Biggest Loser (FCS): Alabama State, down 30
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Notre Dame, Opponent average place in the rankings - 53.67
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Middle Tennessee 171.18
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Villanova 112.64
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Liberty 189.64

The Big 12 jumps ahead of the SEC in conference rankings:

Golden Rankings, Week 12

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Notre Dame and Western Michigan, both up 24 places. The Irish became bowl eligible with a win over Army. Western beat Kent State at Home
Biggest Loser (FBS): Army, down 22 with the loss to Notre Dame. Kinda unusual for the biggest winner and biggest loser to come from the same game this late in the season.
Top Riser (FCS) : Tennessee Tech, up 23
Biggest Loser (FCS): UMass, down 37
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average place in the rankings - 54.40
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Middle Tennessee 169.80
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Savannah State 113.11
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Liberty 187.14

No changes in conference rankings:

Golden Rankings, week 11

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Florida International, up 30 places with a win over Sun Belt stalwart Troy
Biggest Loser (FBS): Oregon State, down 35 after an embarassing loss at home to Washington State
Top Riser (FCS) : Texas Southern, up 35
Biggest Loser (FCS): Cal Poly, down 51
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average place in the rankings - 49.44
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Middle Tennessee 168.00
Toughest Schedule (FCS): James Madison 108.00
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Liberty 189.40

Conference rankings show the SEC jumping ahead of the Big 12 into the lead:

Golden Rankings, week 10

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Louisiville, up 40 places with a win over Syracuse (who would've though Syracuse would be anybody's "big" win?)
Biggest Loser (FBS): Colorado, down 30 (Go play intermurals, brotha!)
Top Riser (FCS) : Alabama State, up 30
Biggest Loser (FCS): Villanova, down 33 (Big East here we come!)
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average place in the rankings - 49.11
Weakest Schedule (FBS): UTEP, 155.40
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Savannah State 97.14
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Liberty 192.44

Conference rankings show the Big 12 leading the way with the SEC jumping back into second:

Golden Rankings, Week 9

Golden Rankings for Week Nine

Some surprises in the rankings, with Missouri not moving much despite getting blown out, and Oregon ranked below a number of one loss teams. The explanation for the surprises lies in schedule strengh. Missouri's loss was mitigated by wins by San Diego State, Illinois, and Oklahoma, teams they built. Oregon's win over USC was only their second of a team with a winning record.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Louisiana-Monroe, up 33 places with a win over Troy
Biggest Loser (FBS): Navy, down 32
Top Riser (FCS) : Yale, up 27
Biggest Loser (FCS): Chattanooga, down 47
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average place in the rankings - 49.50
Weakest Schedule (FBS): UTEP, 161.22
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Sacramento State 100.71
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Butler 193.43

Conference rankings show the Big 12 leading the way with the Big Ten second and SEC third:

Golden Rankings, week 8

Rankings for this week:



As was to be expected, the two winners in the big showdowns last week, Auburn and Missouri find themselves at the top of the heap, followed closely by three of the other five remaining unbeaten FBS teams. Interestingly enough, Oregon, who I think most people feel is the best team in the county is a few places back, due to their weak schedule so far. They've only played one team with a winning record, Stanford. A win at 5-2 USC might help their case a little bit this week.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Clemson, up 35 places with a win over Georgia Tech
Biggest Loser (FBS): Texas, down 35 after a dismal loss to Iowa State
Top Riser (FCS) : Arkansas Pine-Bluff, up 52
Biggest Loser (FCS): Colgate, down 46
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington State, Opponent average place in the rankings - 45.25
Weakest Schedule (FBS): UTEP, 161.25
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Sacramento State 91.83
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Hampton 191.83

Conference rankings show the Big 12 leading the way with the Big Ten and SEC swapping second and third place:

Golden Rankings, week 7

More than halfway through the year, time to reveal our first full Golden rankings:



For an explanation of the ranking system, check out the original site of the rankings. Our rankings differ slightly from his, with the main difference being the inclusion of FCS teams and discounted values for wins over FCS teams based on the overall FCS vs FBS record.

Not surprisingly the top of the poll is dominated by unbeaten teams. For the first time that I can recall, four of the top five teams play each other this week as LSU visits Auburn, and Oklahoma visits Missouri.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, we've added a couple of new columns to our chart - offensive average and defensive average. This is a measurement of how teams do scoring wise in relation to the averages of the teams they are playing. So for example, our #1 team Oklahoma is scoring 13.2 points more per game that their opponents usually allow, and are allowing 8.8 points less per game than their opponents normally score.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - UAB, up 60 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): UTEP, down 46
Top Riser (FCS) : South Dakota State, up 46
Biggest Loser (FCS): Texas State, down 68
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington State, Opponent average place in the rankings - 46.71
Weakest Schedule (FBS): UTEP, 173
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Charleston Southern 88.75
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Southern 211.5

Conference rankings show the Big 12 leading the way with the Big Ten holding off the defending champ SEC:

Golden Rankings, defensive averages

We still wait on the Golden team rankings for another week, but as promised, this week will we look at the defensive team rankings. As you may recall, we modified the rankings this year to enter in both scores for each game, instead of just the margin, allowing us to calculate the average points and points allowed for each team, and to measure a team's offensive an defensive performance in each game in relation to their opponents averages. Last week we looked at the top offenses, this week we look at defenses. These are the top ten (11) teams in holding their opponents under their average points per game. Remember that these numbers are the average amount these teams' opponents are scoring under their yearly average.

1)James Madison -- 18.6 -- the slayer of Virginia Tech has only allowed 39 points in four games to teams that are scoring 28 points per game. Granted Liberty and Morehead State are not powerhouse, but this is still impressive, especially considering the Hokies scored 30 on Boise State and 41 on NC State.
t2)Illinois -- 17.4 -- This is what happens when you hold one of the top scoring offenses in the county (OSU) 20 points under their season average.
t2)Arizona -- 17.4 -- This average seems a little more sustainable than the top two. Of course, they still have to play Oregon and Stanford.
4)Miami -- 15.7 -- held Pitt 24 points under their season average
5)Alabama -- 14.9 -- Four out of five opponents held ten points or more below their season average.
6)Penn State -- 14.8 -- This may be a function of the Penn State offense lulling the other team to sleep
7)Navy -- 13.7 -- Helped by a relatively weak schedule.
8)Florida -- 13.1 -- Only Alabama scored more than 17 on them
9)Oregon -- 12.7 -- God help the rest of the country if they keep this stat up, as we all know they will score.
t10)Stanford -- 12.4 -- How good is the Oregon offense? They scored 52 against Stanford and their season average went down.
t10)LSU -- 12.4 -- Even Les Miles can't mismange this defense.

Golden Rankings, Conference Standings

Still to early to debut the Golden Rankings for this season, but just like Golden did, we reveal the conference standings:

Yikes, how bad has it gotten for the Big East? They are just a hair ahead of the Ivy league and are behind the Colonial. Maybe Villanova will want to stay in the better league.

Also wanted to present something new for the rankings this year. This year instead of just entering the margin of victory for each game, I'm entering each team's score. This allows me to keep track of team's average points scored and allowed per game, and also allows me to track how teams do against their opponents averages. This is a somewhat useful metric, as it allows you to take strength of the opposition teams. If two teams are both averaging 30 points per game, but one is doing it against teams that only give up 20 per game, and the other is doing it against teams that give up 35 per game, the first team would appear to be the better offensive team. So here are the top ten offenses in the country, as measured by the amount of points per game they score over what their opponents give up on average:

1) Ohio State 19.9
2) Oklahoma State 19.3
3) Stanford 18.3
4) Oregon 18.3
t5) TCU 17.8
t5) Houston 17.8
7) Nevada 15.8
8) Texas A&M 15.5
t9) Stephen F Austin 15.1
t9) Appalachian State 15.1

Of course, it's still early in the season, but its interesting to see to FCS teams on this list, especially one that's played an FBS team (SFA lost to Texas A&M 48-7 in the opener). Also interesting to note that several of these teams square off this week (OK State vs A&M tonight, Stanford vs the Ducks Saturday night).

Next week we'll look at some defensive numbers.

Golden Program Rankings

It's too early in the season for the regular Golden rankings to really mean anything, but since everyone has played at least one game, we thought we would display something new: out version of program rankings using the Golden system. The concept is rather simple, this years points are added to 75% of last year's points, 50% of the points from two years ago, and 25% of the points from three years ago, and then divided by the total number of games played over the course of the four years. The idea is that this formula accounts for the full range of playing time for most every player currently on a college football roster, with proportionally more weight given to the most recent data.

No suprises near the top with 08 champion Florida and defending champ Alabama at 1 and 3, sandwiched around Texas who has 5 losses over the last four years. What might be surprising is that the Big Ten is the first league with three teams to show up, with OSU, PSU and Iowa all in the top 14, and the Mountain West is the second with TCU, Utah, and BYU in the top 17.

For conference rankings, no surprise that the SEC is up top with only one of their twelve teams, Vandy, with a negative per game average over four years. The Big East is solidly in second, helped by good bowl records in several of those years.

Golden Rankings, final regular season

Instead of our usual categories to go with the final regular season Golden Rankings, we offer up our 16 team playoff based on the rankings. The playoff includes champions from all 11 FBS conferences along with five at large teams, and is played on campus for the first three rounds. Only One change had to be made to avoid rematches, with #14 CMU switched with #13 West Virginia to avoid a WVU-Cinncy rematch.

#16 Troy (Sun Belt) at #1 Alabama (SEC)
#9 Ohio State (Big Ten) at #8 Oregon (Pac 10)

#13 Central Michigan (MAC) at #4 Cincinnati (Big East)
#12 Penn State (At-Large) at #5 Florida (At-Large)

#14 West Virginia (At-Large) at #3 TCU (Mountain West)
#11 Virginia Tech (At-Large) at #6 Boise State (WAC)

#15 East Carolina (CUSA) at #2 Texas (Big 12)
#10 Georgia Tech (ACC) at #7 Iowa (At-Large)

Golden Rankings, Week 13

As predicted, TCU falls from the top spot with the Big Three all playing tougher opponents. Texas is momentarily #1, but will probably end up at #2 behind the Bama/UF winner assuming they beat Nebraska. If they don't, it will be interesting to see which of the other three unbeaten teams jumps up to #2.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Hawaii, up 25 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Duke, down 20
Top Riser (FCS) : Texas Southern, up 16
Biggest Loser (FCS): McNeese State, down 18
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Florida State, Opponent average - 58.83
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Army, 145.45
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Towson, 105.18
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Old Dominion 208.33

Conference rankings are posted below.

Golden Rankings, Week 12

Florida and Alabama's wins over poor FCS teams knock them down and allow TCU to momentarily move into the top spot over Texas, which beat a struggling Kansas team. Elsewhere in the top ten, Iowa stayed just ahead of Ohio State, despite the Buckeye's win two weeks ago. I guess a win at Michigan isn't that big a deal these days. Sigh. Pittsburgh also stayed just ahead of Penn State pending the Backyard Brawl and the defacto Big East championship game in two weeks. I'd love to see a Penn State / Pitt bowl game somehow, just to stick it to Joe Pa.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Ohio, up 21 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Georgia & Notre Dame, down 20
Top Riser (FCS) : Alcorn State, up 23
Biggest Loser (FCS): Holy Cross, down 41
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 54.10
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Northern Illinois, 145.45
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Towson, 106.27
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Old Dominion 209.22

Conference rankings are posted below. SEC maintains it's lead over the Big East, but UConn's win over Notre Dame and Florida and Alabama's games with weak FCS teams shrink the margin a little.

Golden Rankings, week 11

Florida's win over 6-5 South Carolina and TCU's win over 8-2 Utah are enough to move both of them past last week's #1, Alabama. TCU's stay at the top is probably short lived, as they close the season with winless New Mexico and 5-5 Wyoming. Even two wins won't keep them ahead of the two SEC teams who close with FSU and Auburn respectively, Texas who gets a championship game, or Cinncy, who gets 9-1 Pittsburgh in three weeks.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Florida Atlantic, up 27 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Kansas State, down 21
Top Riser (FCS) : Hampton, up 26
Biggest Loser (FCS): Florida A&M, down 42
-Interestingly enough, these two played each other last week, with Hampton upseting A&M by 25 points.
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 47.90
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Northern Illinois, 152.40
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Northeastern, 97.90
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Old Dominion 205.25

Conference rankings are posted below. Not much changes, with the SEC leading the pack, the big East right behind, and the Big Ten and ACC fighting for third.

Golden Rankings, Week 9

Iowa holds onto it's top spot, Texas moves up to number three. Pretty stable among the top 20 teams. Some pretty good matchups coming the next couple of weeks. LSU visits Alabama, OSU visits Penn State and hosts Iowa. TCU hosts Utah in two weeks.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Tennessee, up 35 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Michigan, down 36 (sigh)
Top Riser (FCS) : Illinois State, up 32
Biggest Loser (FCS): Delaware, down 52
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 38.63
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Ohio, 151.00
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Northeastern, 81.75
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Dayton, 218.57

Conference rankings are posted below. The SEC jumps back in front, Big Ten moves ahead of the Pac Ten into third:

Golden Rankings, Week 8

My apologies that the rankings didn't get posted last week. This week's rankings are far more interesting anyway.




The big news in the top of the poll was TCU jumping up to #3 with their win over BYU and Iowa increasing their lead over Florida with their last minute win over MSU. While TCU is likely to settle behind Alabama and Texas if those two team keep winning, Iowa has a puncher's chance to retain their top spot with a game in Columbus coming up, and all of their non-conference victims continuing to win. Also noteworthy that the most impressive win of the season by any of the top ten teams, according to our rankings, is not Iowa, or Florida, or Alabama, but Boise State with their season opening win over Oregon. A win by Oregon over USC next week might be just enough to keep Boise in the conversation for a BCS bowl. Now on to some stats:

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Texas A&M, up 47 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): North Carolina and Ohio, down 46
Top Riser (FCS) : Arkansas- Pine Bluff, up 36
Biggest Loser (FCS): Morgan State, down 53
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 37.13
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Ohio, 148.88
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Northeastern, 88.00
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Dayton, 227.67

Conference rankings are posted below for the first time in a few weeks. Suprisingly, the SEC is not in first:

Golden Rankings, Week 6

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Louisville, up 51 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Indiana, down 45
Top Riser (FCS) : UC Davis, up 47
Biggest Loser (FCS): Eastern Kentucky, down 75
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 30.83
Weakest Schedule (FBS): South Florida, 167.20
Toughest Schedule (FCS): UC Davis, 73.75
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Dayton, 223.75

The rankings are starting to look a lot like the published polls, with Florida and Virginia Tech moving up this week after big wins over highly ranked opponents. Behind them, Cinncy, TCU and Boise maintain their steady climb up the rankings.
Still holding on in the top 20 are two Colonial teams, New Hampshire and Richmond, who unfortunately don't play each other this year in the regular season. Guess we'll just have to hope they meet in the playoffs. (Playoffs?!? Don't talk to me about playoffs)

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Michigan State, up 72 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Arizona State and Hawaii, down 50
Top Riser (FCS) : Cal Poly, up 60
Biggest Loser (FCS): Citadel, down 77
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 25.00
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Tulsa, 166.60
Toughest Schedule (FCS): UC Davis, 62.67
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Campbell, 217.00

Golden Rankings, week 4

End of September, every team has played at least two games, time for The debut of my version of the Golden Rankings for 2009. Explanation of ranking system is here. Discussion of some differences between my version and Golden's are explained here. My tweaks for this season are discussed here.
Team rankings first::



Top Riser from the end of last year (FBS) - Michigan, up 145 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Rice, down 204
Top Riser (FCS) : Cornell, up 178
Biggest Loser (FCS): Bethune Cookman, down 150
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Virginia, Opponent average - 30.33
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Texas A&M, 181.33
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Dartmouth, 32.00
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Campbell, 242.00

Conference Rankings:

Usual disclaimers about rankings getting more and more relevant as the season goes along, and being nothing more than an interesting thing to read at this stage of the season apply, but I think there are a few interesting things here:
-The defending FCS champ, Richmond makes one of the highest debuts we've ever had for an FCS team that had played more than two games. Now they will drop as the season goes along because FCS wins will be worth less, but the Colonial has two wins over the ACC and four undefeated teams. If the spiders make another run deep into the playoffs, they have a shot to finish top 20.
-The more things change, the more they stay the same for the ACC and Big East - one team each in the top 20, as many as Conference USA, the Mountain West, and one less than the Colonial. Meanwhile, the SEC has four, and the Big 12 and Big Ten have three each. It looks like we could have another Cinncy / Va Tech snoozer on New Year's Day.
-FCS teams are doing better against their FBS brethren than last year, with five wins out of 72 games. Last year they went 2-94.