Bill Martin and the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day

You just knew that this season wasn't going to go out with a whimper. The year that brought us the horror of Appalachian State, the bloodbath that was Oregon and the bone-numbing soul crusher against that team from down south gave us one more punch to the gut this weekend.
The day started with ESPN reporting that Miles to Michigan was a done deal and that he was bringing Georgia Tech's fabulous defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta with him. We were sky high. This was a brand new day for Michigan, one that would bring excitement to the program, while still embracing the traditions that we all love.
Almost immediately, came rumblings that it wasn't a done deal, and that in fact Miles had been working on an extension with LSU, and that terms had been finalized. LSU posted a notice on their web site that Miles was staying. We were crushed. How could this have happened when it appeared that all parties assumed he was gone.
A hastily called press conference was called where Les refuted the rumors that he had signed anything with Michigan, but didn't categorically deny that he was interested in the Michigan job. Some life perhaps. Again spirits rose a little bit.
But after the game, he confirmed that he was indeed staying at LSU. He sounded in his post game presser like someone who had been left at the alter. He talked of how he loved Michigan but couldn't go there. The ultimate blow. We had a great coach, a top ten coach who wanted to come home in the worst way, and we let him get away.
So how did this happen? My guess (and that's all it is, and probably all it will ever be), base on various internet rumors and stories:
-Michigan and Miles had been talking for weeks (through intermediaries, of course), talking about details, but neither side committing to anything (Michigan to hiring, Miles to taking the job)
-LSU came to Miles after Michigan asked for permission to speak with Miles on Thursday or Friday, knowing that Michigan wouldn't contact him until after the game. They offered him three contract extension options, one if he agreed before the game, one if they lost, and the last if they won.
-LSU's offer was substantially higher than what Michigan had been talking about (3.5mil / year versus 2.4 mil / year). Miles tried calling Michigan to try and get confirmation that he was their guy. For whatever reason, Michigan never called him. Some suggest it was money. Some suggest that Martin wasn't completely sold on Miles. Others think it was just gross incompetence on Martin's part.
-Miles, without any word from Michigan, realized that a bird in the hand is worth more than two in bush, took the LSU offer.
-Herbstreit's leak on Saturday morning didn't really affect the outcome at all, except to bring all the backroom dealings out in the light, and perhaps expedite the process.
-In talking to Miles' agent on Sunday, after all the drama, Martin will still only commit to Miles being "among our candidates."

-The anger among Michigan fans and alumni on message boards, blogs and around the water cooler is palpable. Miles was a very popular choice up here, and the idea that we lost him because we wouldn't pay even close to the market rate, because Lloyd Carr was exerting influence, or because Martin was simply outplayed by the LSU AD is infuriating to a lot of people, including yours truly. This guy was the perfect fit for the job, a continuation of Bo's tradition, while bringing experience and success from other BCS conferences. Instead we are going to end up with some retread or inexperienced coordinator. Even people who weren't completely sold on Miles are upset because of what this weekend's events clearly showed: We aren't playing by the same set of rules as the elite programs in the country. We are holding onto this outdated paradigm about how things "should" be done, and it is not only costing us games, it just cost us our best chance to modernize the program.

Even today there were rumors that Les Miles has not signed the much publicized contract extension, and is leaving the door open for Michigan to commit to him. I'm not getting my hopes up, because I know I will just be disappointed in the end.

Maybe I should move to Australia.

The Return of Mr. Manningham

Two TDs and 8 catches for a buck forty-seven. There was one of his patented double-move, fly routes, some quick outs, a couple of crossing routes, and a few grabs in traffic. The one week suspension and the tongue lashing he publicly received from his QB certainly lit a fire under his behind. Combined with 10 grabs from Adrian Arrington, a good performance from Chad Henne (21-28, 265, 2 TDS), and some halfway decent play calling, we finally saw the type of offense that everyone expected before the season started. If they can keep this up, we could be tough to stop the rest of the way. Of course, by "they" I really mean Mike Debord and Lloyd Carr. Apart from a serious injury to one of the major players, play calling is the one thing that could really hamper this offense. Mix up the first down pass and run plays, throw in some play-action, and don't tip off the plays by doing things like only bringing in freshman receivers for running plays, or shuffling the FB to the direction of the run before the snap.
-I doubt that Hart's injury will keep him out of the game next week. If he can walk, he'll be out there. Actually if he is hurt, it might come down to who wins the argument between him and the coaches. If they win, he sits, if he wins, he plays. A couple of times against Penn State, the coaches brought him out to rest him, and he ran back out on the field, telling his backup to go sit back down.
-As expected, the defense looked very solid against Purdue's non-running spread. Purdue's offense may have been state of the art when Tiller first arrived in '97, but it has become very passe'. Without a running QB, it is really quite one dimensional. Without the threat of the run, our DL just pinned their ears back and let loose on Curtis Painter. The Purdue receivers obliged with their usual plethora of dropped balls. I'm not sure that this performance means anything for this week's game at Illinois. The Illini run exactly the kind of run-first spread option that has given us trouble.
-Speaking of the Illini, so much for the Rose Bowl express. Hopefully, we will take a look at the Iowa film and copy some of the stuff they did.
-I wasn't watching the LSU/Kentucky game very intently, but it seemed to me like LSU had a lot of penalties called on them at very inopportune times. Did the Wildcats get a little home cookin'?
-To everyone jumping on the Buckeye bandwagon, keep this in mind: everyone of their remaining opponents, MSU, @ PSU, Ill, Wisc, @ Michigan, is better than each of the teams they have played so far, with the possible exception of the Spartans and Washington. They probably deserve to be #1 right now, although South Florida has a good argument, but I don't think they will go through the season unscathed.
-Not a good weekend for future Michigan coaches: Les Miles finally misses on a fourth down and short when it counts; Jeff Tedford forgets to tell his freshman QB to not get tackled in-bounds; Greg Schiano struggles early with Syracuse before pulling it out; and Brian Kelly loses his undefeated season to an unranked opponent.
-The weirdness of this season has been hammered home over and over by the worldwide leader, but it's worth mentioning again that midway through October, the following teams control their own destiny to get to the BCS: Boston College, South Carolina, Kansas, Arizona State, and Connecticut. Somewhere in the upper floors of the Fox Sports headquarters there is an executive banging his head into the wall with every crazy upset.
-Golden ranking are done, I will post later tonight or tomorrow.

There's at least one every year

That saturday where all hell breaks loose, and a bunch of ranked teams get beat.

West Virginia turns the ball over a gazillion times and loses to suddenly relevant South Florida. Auburn stuns Florida in a great game in the Swamp. Colorado comes from 17 down to beat the Sooners at the gun. Rutgers is beat at home by Maryland. USC almost loses to Washington. Cal wins at Oregon on a fumble at the goal line. Clemson pulls one of their annual "what the #$%# was that!?!?" Illinois proves that either they are for real, or Penn State really sucks. Wisconsin beats MSU in a shootout. (Ok I couldn't find any good game shots on You Tube. Memo to self - I need to make it to Madison for a game one of these days) And of course Texas craps the bed against K-State. Oh yea, Michigan wins a closer than it should have been game at Northwestern.

Some thoughts:
-Ron Prince might just earn a spot on my wish list for our next football coach. I was very impressed with his offense and his special teams against a Texas team that probably has more talent at just about every position.
-I was able to get a copy of the Michigan game at Ten Yard Torrents It was not as ugly as I was expecting based on comments I've seen on message boards. The offense was somewhat conservative, but not in the same way it was against PSU and ND. There was a lot of "long hand-offs" and quick outs to the receivers. I'd still like to see them use the middle of the field more (a slant or a dig route would be nice), and there was no play action, but I know better than to get my hopes up. The defense was disappointing in the first half (can anybody tackle?) but they seem to wear Northwestern down in the end. I think the defense can be very good when they get the opposing offense into obvious passing downs. All the more reason to open up the offense early to try and build a big lead.
-I'm sure I'll live to regret saying this, but I think Cal might be a better team right now than USC. It might just be a case of Cal being focused and USC going through the motions. Tedford is still at the top of my list.
-What the heck is going on with Iowa? Seven straight conference losses?!? Kirk Ferentz might become the first coach in college football history to take a team from 1-10 to a BCS bowl and than back to 1-10 in a span of less than ten years.

Les Miles and more defense

As our dear friend Golden mentioned a few days ago, and as I have mentioned here before, I don't think that Les Miles to Michigan is the slam dunk everyone seems to think it is. Internet rumors are shaky at best, but often times if you see similar type things being hinted at in different places, there is some measure (albeit a small one at times) of truth that can be taken from them(i.e. the old smoke fire thing). The stories being hinted at concerning LSU current football coach revolve around personal and professional transgressions when he was on the staff here at Michigan. Whether the stories are true or not isn't as important as the impression that there are some people at the University who might not want to bring him back. His two biggest selling points as a potential UofM coach are his habit of hiring good assistants and his familiarity with the school. If there are people who don't want him here, that cancels out one of his two assets.

Miles has to be careful here that he doesn't get Glen Masoned. When the OSU job was open before Tressel was hired, Mason made no secret about his desire to return to his alma mater to coach. When the job went to Tressel, Mason lost a lot of credibility at Minnesota. You can bet right now that Saban, Meyer, and other coaches are contacting every one of the LSU's recruits and telling them Miles is as good as gone.

The bottom line, I think, is that the start of the season has given the AD, Bill Martin (who wasn't here when Miles was here) more freedom to hire whomever he feels is the best candidate, regardless of their connections to the university. I don't think Miles will be that candidate unless they miss on some other choices.

How soon till Hockey season starts?

Well, it's official, the App game was no fluke, and the Schembechler era is over.

Just about anything that could go wrong, went wrong. The offense moved the ball but couldn't put any points on the board (four red zone trip in the first four possessions resulted in one TD). The defense got beat every possible way. The tackling was horrible. The D line got no pass rush. The linebackers were constantly out of position. The defensive backs got torched repeatedly. Oregon scored 39, and probably left 20 points on the field. Michigan's three stars on offense, Mike Hart, Jake Long and Chad Henne all were injured. Henne didn't play the entire second half, left the locker room on crutches, and is doubtful for next week's game against the Fighting Leprechauns. His replacement, super freshman Ryan Mallet had his moments, but also looked very much like a freshman at other points.

So the high hopes of the season are gone, and a reassessment of priorities for the team and the coaching staff is in order:
-Priority number one is getting six wins and keeping the nation's longest bowl streak intact, even if it's a trip to the Insight or Motor City bowl. Where those wins are going to come from is any body's guess. If yesterday is any indication, a Ryan Mallet led offense will be extremely limited, especially if the opponent can limit the effectiveness of the running game. The defense is not likely to be good enough to win games on its own, even though there aren't any spread teams left on the schedule as dangerous as Oregon.
-Priority number two is a win this saturday. The last thing you want to do is be the one that gets Notre Dame healthy. Much has been said about the historically bad levels of these two teams. It is the ultimate pillow fight, the offense that couldn't move across the street, against a matador defense that would do any Spaniard proud. But no matter who the coach is next year, they will have to recruit against the little tuna, and a win in this game will help keep his bluster to a minimum. In a sense this might be priority number one, because I don't see how they will get to a bowl if they don't beat the Irish.
-Priority number three is a win up at East Lansing. While they might be able to get to six wins without a win there, a win by the State will be marketed by the Sparties as proof that the balance of power is switching in the state
-Priority number four is a win over Ohio State. Normally this would be the top priority, but as it seems highly unlikely, and Tressel's record against Carr will be irrelevant with a new coach coming in, I put it down the list. If a bowl game is secure by this point, this game will be all about sending Carr out on a high note, and helping the heal the psyche of the fan base. If I'm Carr, I'm thinking of announcing my retirement the Monday before the game, and turning all the negative energy that's pointed my way right now into positive, gratitude type vibe. If they get to six wins, and Carr announces before that game, he will get a huge standing ovation before the game. For as much as he is being reviled right now, there is still a lot of love for one the classiest coaches in the land, who has represented the school and the team with the greatest honor in the last dozen years.

Meanwhile, the task at hand for Bill Martin and the AD's office is as follows:
-Say nothing about Coach Carr that is not positive until he makes his retirement announcement. Something similar to the quote you made about you and Amaker being joined at the hip.
-Prepare your list of candidates. I would suggest starting with Tedford, Rodriguez, Schiano and Ferentz. Each candidate should have head coaching experience at the BCS level, should be a good Xs and Os guy, and should understand that their job is as much media relations as it is football coach.
-Quietly send out feelers to each person on your list to see if they might be interested. Make sure that none of these feelers can be discovered. It is better to not contact someone than it is to risk them being put in the awkward positions of having to deny their interest, or you being put in a position where it looks like you are pushing Carr out the door.
-Once Carr announces, near or at the end of the season, begin your negotiations in earnest. Ideally you should be down to two or three candidates within a week after he announces. Remember that any coach who is going to play games in the media about the position is probably not worth hiring.
-Set a goal of announcing your new coach by the time the national championship game is over. This gives the new coach time to shore up the recruiting class.

If Carr handles the team with class and the team rededicates itself to improvement, I think they can get to six wins. If Martin handles the football search like he did the basketball search, we'll be in good shape.
But of course, what do I know, I thought they'd beat Appalachian State

What stage are you in?

It's not quite what Elisabeth Kubler-Ross had in mind, but i've gone through
Denial(at the game - "this can't be happening"), Depression (the next day or two), Bargaining ("Maybe if we run the table, this will all be washed away") and am currently working on Anger (thanks to MGoBlog's UFR) I'll get to Acceptance sometime later, hopefully after a win or two.

Some other observations that got missed in the fallout from the "Upset of the Century"
-I would love to see the LSU/Va Tech game in person this week. Defense, defense, defense, with a modicum of special teams thrown in. After watching most of the LSU game, I'm not convinced that Matt Flynn will be able to handle the pressure of the Hokie pass rush. He looked like he got rattled against Mississippi State. Of course, with their defense, he won't need to do much to win. First team to ten wins.
-If Michigan had done what they were supposed to have done, I would have really enjoyed all the press jumping all over Weis E. Coyote, super offensive genius. He played all these games with his QB selection all summer, making a story where there really was none, and then they come out and look absolutely putrid (122 yards total offense in 63 plays). Defense wasn't much better. It will be interesting to see what contortions ND fans go through to blame this season on Ty Willingham.
-The worst performance by a top ten team this week? It might have been Texas, who had to hold on for dear life against another ASU, Arkansas State, who is projected to finished in the middle of the Sun Belt. Especially troubling is the paltry 117 yards rushing against a team that was 77th in the nation against the run. With a TCU team coming up this week that is 4-0 in their last four against Big 12 teams, they could be in trouble.
-I loved the tribute USC gave to their former kicker (HT: Various AOL Fanhouse bloggers). I think it shows why Pete Carroll is the best coach in the game today. He's like that younger teacher at your high school who had a good sense of humor, was friendly, and knew just enough popular culture to relate to kids. It's no wonder that all the top HS kids want to play for him.
-I know it's not wise to question the guys in Vegas too much, but there are a few lines this week I don't get. A couple of games we've already talked about as being tight games, UT-TCU and VaTech-LSU. Is Oklahoma really 11 points better than Miami? And the Michigan-Oregon line just seems off. The Ducks are getting 8? Can Michigan really score enough to win by 8 or more?

-One final thing, since everyone is talking about the next Michigan coach, I'll throw in my 2 cents. My top candidates at this point:
1) Jeff Tedford - good Xs and Os guy, some pro experience, head coaching experience in a BCS conference, Cal is a very similar school to Michigan. He's been frustrated with Cal's inability to get a stadium expansion done, Michigan's recent announced plans might be a draw.
2) Rich Rodiguez - Very innovative, the fact he listened to Bama last year shows he's available for the right price
3) Kirk Ferentz - Very good at teaching the fundamentals. Knows the UofM president, Mary Sue Coleman due to her time at Iowa, and has (or had) a daughter at UofM. Would he be willing to move in conference?
4) Greg Schiano - Great recruiter, good pedigree

I don't think that Les Miles will ever be offered the job. He desperately wants the job, anyone who pays attention to LSU football can tell you that. But there have long been rumors about character issues (he's referred to as "Loose Morals" by Michigan insiders), and I don't think that Bill Martin would take a chance with that. Especially since he's not really known as a great strategist, and his buyout at LSU (reportedly $2.1 million if he leaves to go to Michigan) might be cost prohibitive.

Coaching possibilites

June 19, 2008 Note: This is a post that originally appeared on Golden's Football Rankings and is reproduced here for posterity.

Since we have previously called for Tommy Amaker’s dismissal in this space, it is time to discuss some possibilities to replace him.

There are a number of things that might make a college basketball coaching position desirable: money, facilities, tradition, potential for growth in a program, and proximity to talent. The Michigan job is probably fairly mediocre in the first three categories, but scores high marks in the last two categories.

The first list is of big names that probably would not come to Michigan, but will get mentioned often by fans on message boards, kinda the way John Gruden’s name comes up whenever a major college football program has an opening.
(In no particular order)
1)Billy Gillespie, Texas A&M – He has done wonders resurrecting a moribund program in a major conference. But A&M has a lot of resources, and has demonstrated in the past they are willing to break the bank for a coach.

2)Seth Greenberg, Virginia Tech – The Hokies were supposed to flounder at the bottom of the ACC when they joined the league. But he’s got them tied for the league lead

3)Jaime Dixon, Pitt – His fire and intensity would be a welcome change to Amaker’s stoic demeanor. As a Howland disciple, he can certainly get the most out of his players.

4)Randy Wright, Villanova – Daper, young, media savvy, everything you’d want to help grow a program.

5)Tom Crean, Marquette – A good X and O guy, he is a former MSU assistant who has been rumored as the heir apparent to Izzo when he retires. But his wife is Jim Harbaugh’s sister, and she grew up in Ann Arbor, so he could possibly consider a position here. Hiring him would infuriate the Spartan coaching staff and fan base and would ignite that rivalry

6)John Beilein, West Virginia – He’s a little older, but has a very established track record of making players and teams better. After losing most of his team from last year, the Mountaineers were picked for the bottom of the Big East this year. He has them flirting with the Top 25, and they just beat #1 UCLA.


The second list is some of the more attainable names, coaches at smaller schools who would consider Michigan a good step up in prestige.
(In no particular order)
1)Mark Turgeon, Wichita State – A Kansas native, he has guided the Shockers to four straight post season bids

2)Travis Ford, Umass – The former Kentucky guard has Umass on the verge of their second straight 20-win season after taking Eastern Kentucky to the Big Dance.

3)John Pelphrey, South Alabama -- Another former Wildcat who has won 20 or more games two years in a row at a place that does not have a great basketball tradition. Both Ford and Pelphrey might be waiting for Tubby Smith to leave UK.

4)Chris Lowery, Southern Illinois – 49-14 in his third year with the Salukis with two conference championships, with another one on the way. He is an SIU alum, so he might want to stay there. He was an assistant with Bruce Webber at Illinois before he took the job at SIU.

5)Tony Bennett, Washington State – In his first year at one the hardest places to recruit in the country, Dick Bennett’s kid has the Cougars 21-4 and on their way to the school’s first NCAA bid in 13 years.

6)Reggie Theus, New Mexico State – The former NBA player has the Aggies playing way above their heads. He is a UNLVslum, so he might hold out for that job.

7)Jeff Bzdelik, Air Force – The former coach of the Denver Nuggets has the falcons at the top of the Mountain West