Deepinthahearta...

So, for the first time in like two decades, I won't be able to watch or record the Michigan game today (thanks Comcast!), so I decided it was the perfect opportunity to get out and see some other teams in action. I made my way down to my brother's abode in Austin, TX, and the two of us, along with my dad, secured some tickets to the Texas / Kansas State tilt this afternoon.

I have not watched much of either Texas or Kansas State this year, so I don't quite know what to expect. Texas will probably have the talent edge at most positions, but I do know that Texas fans have been somewhat dissatisfied with their performance so far this year. Heck they almost lost to Arkansas State. For more info and analysis on this game, I refer you to one of the best Texas blogs on the planet, Burnt Orange Nation. I will try and take good notes today, and will do my best to compare and contrast the Austin game day experience with the Ann Arbor one.

Not much to say about our game today. We should be able to run at will against the Mildcats, and given how the season started, I doubt we take them for granted. Still, this is the first road game (although, there is often as many Michigan fans as Northwestern fans in Evanston), it is a spread offense, and the possibility exists that it is closer than it really should be. My guess, something like 35-14, with us putting it away early in the second half. Chad Henne starts, plays two series and then gives way to the young, tall Texan, Ryan Mallet.

After watching South Florida's historic win last night, I don't know if I should be happy, worried, or disinterested. On one hand, it always nice to see a home underdog win. The crowd was excited, the team was enthused, and the whole scene was electric, much like the Rutgers / L'ville game last year. On the other hand, South Florida is only an 11 year old program. That's right, the players have little brothers and sisters who are older than this program. There is some sense that it big time success shouldn't come so quickly, or so easy for them. Sunday Morning Quarterback had an excellent article on this from the perspective of a Southern Miss fan. Southern Miss, the model mid-major program. 13 straight winning seasons, the occasional upset over an SEC team, probably the premiere program in the CUSA. Now they have to watch this upstart surge towards the brink of BCS bowl? Then again, maybe I shouldn't worry about this game at all. After all, the Bulls did beat West Virginia last year, and they still have to travel too Rutgers and play Cinncy and L'ville (who has to find a defense eventually, right?!?) at home. They could easily end up the same 8-4, whatever.com bowl team they were last year.

The big game in the Big Ten this week is MSU / Wisconsin. State has started out the season 4-0, as they've a number of times in the last few years. But each time they've done that, they've lost a tough game (to ND last year, at OSU a few years back) and have just collapsed. Given that, it's not surprising that most Spartan fans are still in wait and see mode with this season and with their new coach. If they beat Wisconsin, look out. They will jump into the big ten title conversation, and Coach Dantonio will be hailed as the second coming of Duffy Daugherty. Of course, even if they do win today, there is at least a 30-40% chance they lose at home to Northwestern next week.

Nine in a row?

Some pre-game thoughts:

-There is no doubt that Penn State will be the toughest defense we have seen all year. CB Justin King and LB Dan Conner are All-Big Ten, maybe even All-American type defenders. LBs Sean Lee and SS Anthony Anthony Scirrotto are not far behind. The DL, although young, features a number of highly recruited players.
-Given this, you would think we would do something to vary up our offensive game plan. But of course, this is not our SOP in the Carr era. We will come up with some small variations off of our standard zone left, a different pulling guard, an addition receiver in motion, etc.
-With a freshman QB (likely) and all-everything Mike Hart, Penn State will put 8 guys in the box and will blitz like crazy in obvious passing situations.
-Accordingly, we should sprinkle in a fair amount of play action to keep the defense honest. We should also put Mallet in the shotgun on passing downs (stop me if you've heard this one). Will we? Probably not as much as most fans would like us to.
-Luckily, Penn State's offense does not appear to be half as explosive as Oregon's. QB Anthony Morelli has shown a tendency to fold under pressure, and their running game has been less than spectacular. Combine that with a coaching staff that matches ours for stubborn play calling, and this could be a very low scoring affair.
-The one thing Penn State does have on offense is a good set of receivers. Expect a lot of quick outs, slants, and other things that will try and exploit out LBs and DBs horrible tackling skills.
-I would be happy with 20-25 pass attempts for 150 yards for Mallet. Combined with a 30 carry, 150+ yard day for Hart, and we probably win.

Thoughts on other games:
-MSU/ND: This game is all gravy for Michigan fans. Of course we have talked all week about watching the ND hand wringing. A loss here, especially if they don't score an offensive TD, will only intensify that. An MSU loss will bring up bad memories of past meltdowns for the Spartans. My guess is that the Irish come out fired up, score a TD or two, maybe lead at half, but fizzle out in the second half to lose 24-14 or so.
-SEC Upstart weekend - Crossover weekend in the SEC with four east teams traveling west. In three of the four games an upstart (South Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky) seeks to prove that their early season success is no fluke. The Wildcat / Razorback game should be a wild offensive shootout, the Cock / Tiger a defensive bar brawl, and the Tide / Bulldog game somewhere in between. Luckily all three games are at different times.
-Wisconsin / Iowa: This is the prime time game on ABC? I'm guessing the ABC execs wish Michigan would breakdown and allow a night game at Michigan Stadium. So would I.
-Purdue / Minnesota: Back in 1993, the Gophers hit a field goal with 18 seconds left to beat Purdue 59-56. Two Purdue defensive coaches resigned the next day. While I wouldn't expect a game quite as close, I could easily see Purdue being somewhere north of 500-600 yards of total offense against a Gopher team that couldn't stop Bowling Green, Miami, or Florida Atlantic.

What we hope to see at saturday's Pillow fight

Some things we'd like to see:

-More play action from the M offense, and not just with the waggle. Given the way ND has struggled against the run, I would guess we will see a lot of 8 man fronts. Some play action to the Carson Butler or quick outs to Arrington or Manningham will help loosen that defense and will give Hart more room to run.

-No Greg Mathews. Mathews' kick of an Oregon player was inexcusable. He should be suspended for at least one game.

-Backup RBs who can hold on to the ball. Hart can't run the ball on every play. It would be nice to have someone else who can run with some authority.

-A focused Mario. No breaking off routes, no giving up on balls, and hold onto things that hit your hands.

-Mallet in the shotgun in obvious passing downs. He spent his entire HS career in the shotgun, he's comfortable with it, and it will give him more time to wait for those crossing routes to develop.

-No FB shuffle. Whenever we put the FB in motion, we always run that way, it's a dead giveaway. Of course you always go against that and run a play the opposite way. Maybe you could run the shuffle one way, fake the pitch to Hart going that way and give to the FB on a little counter going back the other way.

-Better tackling! - A good portion of our defensive woes will be alleviated if the first five people to reach a ball carrier didn't bounce off him like flies off a Sherman tank.

-Marques Slocum, Brandon Graham, and Jonas Mouton. These three guys who all figured to be starting or primary backups prior to the season will give the DL and LBs much needed depth. Brandon Graham is a true sophomore who might be the best DE on the team. If he plays, it will allow Shawn Crable to return to his more natural OLB position. Slocum, who waited two years to qualify for Michigan and then got suspended right before the first game after an MIP, will spell Terrance Taylor and Will Johnson at DT if he plays. Mouton is a redshirt freshman LB who might get some of Chris Graham's minutes.

-Some (at least thinly) disguised coverages. If we are going to run zone, make sure WR is covered so the zone isn't so obvious pre-snap. Rotate safeties at the last minute. Bring a corner blitz every now and then. In general don't let the emu get comfortable.

More of this:

And less of this: