They're Gonna Wave Him In!

Some catching up on a few items:

-I was in the middle of setting up an Awards Ceremony at the Academic Games State tournament as Michigan was playing Clemson in the first round of the NCAAs. As I was unpacking trophies, setting up microphones, and moving chairs, people would shout the score to me from across the banquet hall, where they were watching it on ESPN gametracker or a shitty CBS March Madnees On-Demand video feed, while at the same time monitoring middle school students playing Presidents. When the game finally ended, my son called me with the score. Needless to say, I didn't really get much chance to break down the game, and I still haven't watched it in its entirety. But over the next few days, whenever I had a moment to think. I found myself repeating the results over and over, "We won a game in the Big Dance, we won a game in the Big Dance!" I am ecstatic with the season, and think John Beilein did a whale of a job making the tourney with two walk-ons at point, and one player over 6-8 in the rotation. He certainly deserved some Coach of the Year consideration in the Big Ten (Izzo winning that award was an absolute joke). I know that the step for a program from bad to mediocre or from mediocre to good is ten times easier than the step from good to great, or great to elite, but I have confidence that Beilein will take us there eventually. If Manny and Pedi Sims come back (cross your fingers), top 3 or 4 in the league, a single digit seed, and a sweet sixteen birth are not unreasonable expectations for next year.
-I'm not an NFL draft expert by any stretch of the imagination, and any time spent thinking about the Lions is wasted time, but it seems to me that a Jay Cutler for the Lions second first round pick (#20) is an obvious deal that would help both the Lions and Denver.
-What the heck is Kentucky thinking? You gotta give a coach at least three years, barring any wrongdoing (like the Kelvin Sampson stuff at IU). I don't know why any established coach without prior connections there would want that job knowing they've run off two pretty decent coaches in the last three years. They just moved up a few spots on my "Teams to root against" list.
-TO in Buffalo?!?! Seriously, that's a joke isn't it? That's like saying that Dennis Leary has been selected as the next Pope, or Rush Limbaugh is the new head of the ACLU. Some things just don't belong together.
-The passing of George Kell earlier this week made me feel really old (and really melancholy). Along with Bob Ufer, Ernie Harwell, and to a lesser extent Sid Abel, Kell was the voice of my sports childhood. You could hear one word from him and you knew who you were listening to. Close your eyes and listen to a few more words and you could see the upper deck in rightfield hanging over the field. You could see the flagpole in deep, deep centerfield in front of the rowdy bleacher creatures. He came from an era when announcers didn't just read the score or the pitch count, but actually painted a picture complete with all the little details that were periphery to the game. His Arkansas drawl was so unique to this area that everyone had their own imitation of it. He was a connection to the Golden Age of baseball for my generation of fans.

DeShawn Sims is quickly becoming one of my favorite Michigan Basketball players

It's not just his improved play this season that has endeared him to me, it's some of the things he's said off the court. Before the Maryland game, he told the Detroit Free Press,

"People want Michigan to succeed. As much as the nation and everybody around wants us to succeed, we have to do the job by succeeding and making it happen. I look around and see so much Michigan stuff everywhere I go. It just puts it in my heart that we have to bring the program back for the fans. We're playing for more than ourselves."

Then today after the huge win over Duke, he told the Detroit News:

"Sometimes you start to question yourself when you're not getting a lot of minutes. Coach Beilein believed in me. He's building a foundation and I'm glad I'm a part of it. He puts the c, the o, the a , the c and the h in coach. And he coaches you on an interpersonal level. It's amazing. I'm a better player than I've ever been and I know more than I've ever known."

In those quotes I hear a young man starting to grow up and starting to find his home. It reminds me a little of conversations I've had with some of the UofM students I've worked with in Academic Games. No matter where you come from, or what your major is, there is something special about being at school when the world opens up for you, and you realize that you can make a place for yourself in the world. Over the last few years, Sims has had a lot of times when he could have left Michigan, and nobody would have blamed him. Heck, it took a big leap of faith for him to even come to Michigan, when his former HS coach won't even talk to the Michigan coaching staff now.

It's clear that this team is going to be significantly better than any we've had in a long time, and has a good chance of actually going dancing. But equally important, this team is taking a look of a team that you want to root for, that you feel good about representing your school. Given the recent history of the UofM basketball, that is the perhaps the most important development.

Bracketology 3/2

Last Four In: 1)Mississippi; 2)Arkansas; 3)Arizona; 4)Creighton
First Four Out: 1)Houston; 2)Kansas State; 3)Oral Roberts; 4)Wright State

South Region
Little Rock
1) Memphis
16) Alabama State (SWAC) or UNC-Asheville (Big South)
8) Miami
9) Pittsburgh

Anaheim
4) Stanford
13) IUPUI
5) Drake
12) Rhode Island

Washington DC
3) Wisconsin
14) Santa Barbara (Big West)
6) BYU
11) Robert Morris

Denver
2) Texas
15) Boise State (WAC)
7) Marquette
10) Mississippi State


East Region
Raleigh
1) North Carolina
16) Morgan State (MEAC)
8) Davidson
9) Western Kentucky

Denver
4) Indiana
13) USC
5) Gonzaga
12) West Virginia

Tampa
3) Georgetown
14) Mississippi
6) South Alabama
11) Massachuttes

Birmingham
2) Vanderbilt
15) Siena (MAAC)
7) Kent State
10) Baylor


Midwest Region
Tampa
1) Tennessee
16) American (Patriot)
8) Clemson
9) Illinois State

Washington DC
4) UConn
13) Arizona
5) Michigan State
12) New Mexico

Omaha
3) Kansas
14) Belmont
6) Washington State
11) Florida

Omaha
2) Xavier
15) Maryland-Balt Cty (America East)
7) Purdue
10) Stephen F Austin


West Region
Raleigh
1) Duke
16) Portland State (Big Sky)
8) Virginia Commonwealth
9) Dayton

Little Rock
4) Louisville
13) Creighton
5) St. Mary's
12) Oklahoma

Birmingham
3) Butler
14) Arkansas
6) Notre Dame
11) Cornell

Anaheim
2) UCLA
15) Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
7) UNLV
10) Texas A&M

New rankings finally up

Finally got an updated set of rankings up.
Some thoughts and observations from the last two weeks of BBall.
-So much for the good momentum for Beilein's boys. An ugly loss at home to Big Ten bottom dweller Northwestern put the kibosh on any positive feelings that might have been generated by winning three straight and four out of five. The followup game at Penn State wasn't much better. It's hard to see if any progress has made program wise this year. I still Beilein was a better option than sticking with Tommy Turtleneck, but it may take longer than expected to turn the ship around. The jury is still out, but the early returns aren't promising.
-The Bracket buster weekend proved that this is still the MVC's world and the rest of us are just playing in it. Missouri Valley teams went an astounding 8-2 when only three other conferences were more than one game over .500 (America East 3-1, Colonial 7-5, & MAAC 6-4). Particularly noteworthy were Drake's win over Butler on the road, and Creighton's thrilling one point win at Oral Roberts
-I think the Tennessee game showed why Memphis will be the #1 or #2 seed most likely to get upset before the Sweet sixteen. They are very athletic and have relied on their superior athletes to blow away most of their opponents this year. They aren't stellar in half court offense, don't shoot free throws well at all (through games of 3/2, they are the third worst FT shooting team in the country), and if they face a team with a lot of talent early (like Florida or Oklahoma) they could go down. With the poor free throw shooting, they could also be susceptible to a disciplined, deep team that decides to put them on the line a lot.
-I would love to see a Texas / Gonzaga matchup at some point in the tourny. A Pargo / Augestin could be a classic.
-I will try and get an updated bracketology up tonight.

This and That

Sorry about the absence of bracketology this week, work and AG stuff are eating up a lot of time. I will post something after the weekend.

Ok, I know everybody loves trades, but sometimes the best trade are the ones you don't make. In the last couple of weeks, I think a couple of different western conference contenders have made trades that made them weaker in the short and long run. Phoenix traded fantasy superstar Shawn Marion to Miami for The big aristotle, Shaq. Now I realize that the Suns felt like they had to deal Marion who had been fueding with Amare Stoudamire and was making noise about bolting at the end of the year as a free agent. But Shaq? Even in his prime, Shaq wouldn't have fit the Suns run n' gun style. Now, five years past his prime, he is going to grind them to a halt and make them a team with no discernible identity come the playoffs. This is kinda like a Mike Martz offense taking the best blocking fullback in the draft. The palyer the Suns really could have used was Pau Gasol, whose trade to the Lakers seemed to be the catalyst for the Suns panic move.
-It also seems to me that Dallas gave up just a little too much to get an aging point guard, who has been good, but not great in past playoffs. They gave up their best young PG in Devin Harris, and with Desagna Diop gone, they are mighty thin up front, especially when you consider that the defending champs, San Antonio just got deeper by acquiring Kurt Thomas from Seattle.

-The M basketball team has put on a nice little run, with consecutive wins vs Penn State, @ Iowa and vs OSU. Maybe, just maybe Beilein's system is starting to sink in with his very young team. The schedule is favorable the rest of the way (@Minn, Ill, @ PSU, NW, & Purdue) and it looks like they could get some much need momentum towards recruiting season and towards next year.

-I'm glad to see that the UofM AD has finally decided to honor Jalen Rose for the work he's done with his foundation. It's not quite a jersey retirement ceremony, but it's time we realize that the sins of Mr. Webber shouldn't be visited on all of the Fab Five. Those guys represent an important time in the history of Michigan basketball, and they should be recognized for their contributions to the program. If it were up to me, I would raise a banner that just said "Fab Five" on it. Invite Rose, Howard, King and Jackson back, and tell Webber he can come back when he makes a public apology. Enough time has past, we don't have to be embarassed about their success anymore.

-For any sane Penn State fan, the idea that Joe Paterno has out lasted Fidel Castro has to be soul crushing.

-Interesting stat: Road conference record the last three years:
Michigan 6-17
Michigan State 5-17
Hmmmm. For an "elite" team, MSU sure does lose a lot of games.

-The NBA all-star game just doesn't do it for me. I've heard pundits compare it to the Super Bowl in terms of events surrounding the game. I never even realize what weekend it is until I check my fantasy team the friday night before the game and see that no one has played. Even the slam-dunk contest seems kinda boring after a while.

-Speaking of over-hyped events, I was surprised to find out recently that this year was the 50th running of the Daytona 500. I would have sworn it was older than that. I know that NASCAR has seen a big surge in popularity the last decade or two, but it was around prior the WWII, wasn't it? Maybe if NASCAR is only a little more than a generation or two old, there is still time for it to die down, fade back into obscurity and quite taking valuable time on Sportscenter away from real sports, like hockey.

-I wanted to highlight a great piece of writing by SMQ about the relationship between the Big Ten and the SEC. I don't know how terribly accurate it is, but anyone who can include a bob dylan lyric in a college football post deserves props.

-It amazes me how stupid big time athletes are at times, and how much their ego gets in their way when they are not on the playing field. Roger Clemens will probably be on the outside looking in to Cooperstown, instead of being a first ballot Hall of Famer, because he isn't willing to admit that he used enhancements at a time when many other players (maybe even most) were using them and baseball did nothing to officially discourage them. It's real simple. Americans will forgive almost anything if you tell them the truth. Pete Rose would be in the Hall of Fame now if he had told the truth 20 years ago. Same is likely true for Mark Mcgwire. American history in the 20th century is littered with public figures who have sinned but survived because they confessed their transgressions. If Clemens releases a simple statement when the Mitchell report came out (I did it, I was wrong, I'm sorry I let the fans down), this would be a non-story right now, instead of a televised congressional hearing. The more Clemens denies the story, the more he twists the knife in his own back.

Bracketology 2/11/08

Last Four In: 1)Mississippi State; 2)NC State; 3)Miami; 4)Ohio State
First Four Out: 1)USC; 2)Illinois State; 3)West Virginia; 4)Oklahoma

South Region
Little Rock
1) Memphis
16) Alabama State (SWAC) or Lafayette (Patriot)
8) UNLV
9) Arizona

Denver
4) Indiana
13) Miami
5) Texas
12) Syracuse

Washington DC
3) Xavier
14) Santa Barbara (Big West)
6) Arkansas
11) Wright State

Anaheim
2) Georgetown
15) Cornell (Ivy)
7) South Alabama
10) Virginia Commonwealth

East Region
Raleigh
1) Duke
16) Portland State(Big Sky)
8) Florida
9) Houston

Anaheim
4) St. Mary's
13) Ohio State
5) Notre Dame
12) Stephen F. Austin

Tampa
3) Michigan State
14) Siena (MAAC)
6) Texas A&M
11) Marquette

Anaheim
2) UCLA
15) UNC-Ashville (Big South)
7) Missippi
10) Kent State

Midwest Region
Raleigh
1) North Carolina
16) Hampton (MEAC)
8) Pitt
9) Baylor

Denver
4) Stanford
13) Davison
5) Wisconsin
12) UMass

Birmingham
3) Vanderbilt
14) Utah State (WAC)
6) Dayton
11) Oral Roberts

Omaha
2) Drake
15) Robert Morris (Northeast)
7) Kansas State
10) Clemson

West Region
Tampa
1) Tennessee
16) Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
8) BYU
9) Purdue

Washington DC
4) UConn
13) NC State
5) Washington State
12)Creighton

Little Rock
3) Butler
14) Mississippi State
6) Rhode Island
11) Western Kentucky

Omaha
2) Kansas
15) Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
7) Gonzaga
10) Louisville

2/4 Bracketology

The first week in February brings some jumps up (Uconn) and Down (Ole Miss) in our weekly bracketology, with more big changes to come, given this week's schedule. As I write this, the top dogs in the WCC, Gonzaga and St. Mary's are in overtime. The top two teams in the Missouri Valley, Drake and Illinois State meet in Normal, Illinois on Tuesday. UCLA visits suddenly struggling Washington State on Thursday, Florida and Tennessee battle on Tuesday, and of course, Duke and Carolina renew their classic rivalry.
Last Four In: 1)Miami; 2)Umass; 3)West Virginia; 4)George Mason
First Four Out: 1)St. Joseph's; 2)USC; 3)Wright State; 4)Illinois State

South Region
Little Rock
1) Memphis
16) Alabama State (SWAC) or Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
8) South Alabama
9) Clemson

Anaheim
4) St. Mary's
13) George Mason
5) Texas
12) Seton Hall

Tampa
3) Michigan State
14) Boise State (WAC)
6) UNLV
11) Virginia Commonwealth

Anaheim
2) UCLA
15) Cornell (Ivy)
7) Florida
10) Pitt

East Region
Raleigh
1)North Carolina
16)Lafayette (Patriot)
8) Arizona
9) Baylor

Denver
4) Xavier
13) Stephen F Austin (Southland)
5) Indiana
12) West Virginia

Birmingham
3) Vanderbilt
14) UNC-Ashville (Big South)
6) Gonzaga
11) Purdue

Omaha
2) Drake
15) Robert Morris (Northeast)
7) Marquette
10) Houston

Midwest Region
Raleigh
1) Duke
16) Hampton (MEAC)
8) Arkansas
9) Oklahoma

Washington DC
4) Rhode Island
13) Oral Roberts (Summit)
5) Washington State
12) Syracuse

Little Rock
3) Butler
14) Rider (MAC)
6) Mississippi
11) Akron

Birmingham
2) Georgetown
15) Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
7) Texas A&M
10) Ohio STate

West Region
Tampa
1) Tennessee
16) Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
8) Kansas State
9) BYU

Denver
4) Stanford
13) Davidson (Southern)
5) UConn
12)UMass

Washington DC
3) Wisconsin
14) Santa Barbara (Big West)
6) Dayton
11) Miami, Fla

Omaha
2) Kansas
15) Maryland - Baltimore Cty (America East)
7) Notre Dame
10) Kent State

Bracketology?

Ok, ok, new BB rankings are up, but I decided to add something to it. Long before "bracketology" was a part of our cultural lexicon, I used to gather with my boys around this time of year, and try and put together our version of the NCAA tournament. We used to love doing it so much, that we would expand the tournament and include all Division I teams in a giant, 5-week extravaganza. Of course after we made the bracket, we had to fill it out. So, I decided to present a prospective NCAA field, based on the Golden Rankings. Some of the seedings are a little out there (Drake as a 2 seed?), but rather than make subjective adjustments, I decided to let the rankings stand on their own. I'll leave the filling out to the rest of you.
Some guidelines:
-31 automatic qualifiers, 34 at-large teams
-Teams are seeded in a "snake-like" manner, whereby the lowest one seed gets the highest two seed, and the lowest two seed gets the highest three seed, etc.
-Teams were moved up or down the snake to avoid inter-conference match-ups as much as possible. Non-conference rematches (such as Georgetown-Memphis) were not avoided.
-For the one bid conferences, I took the team with the highest current ranking
-South Region plays the West, East plays the Midwest in the Final Four
-Last Four In: Illinois State, Cleveland State, UConn, UMass
-First Four Out: Purdue, Duquesne, Syracuse, Creighton

South Region
Little Rock
1) Memphis
16) Alabama State (SWAC) or Md-Baltimore Cty (America East)
8) Kansas State
9) Ohio State

Birmingham
4) Wisconsin
13) UConn
5) Mississippi
12) Illinois State

Birmingham
3) Washington State
14) Wagner (Northeast)
6) South Alabama
11) Mississippi State

Washington DC (I'm not sure if the Hoyas will be allowed to play here, so it might have to be switched)
2) Georgetown
15) UNC-Ashville (Big South)
7) UNLV
10) USC

East Region
Raleigh
1)North Carolina
16)Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
8) Pittsburgh
9) Arkansas

Denver
4) Texas
13) Northridge (Big West)
5) Florida
12) Seton Hall

Anaheim
3) UCLA
14) Davidson (Southern)
6) Dayton
11) Houston

Omaha
2) Drake
15) Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
7) Gonzaga
10) Texas A&M

Midwest Region
Omaha
1)Kansas
16)Cornell (Ivy)
8)Miami
9)Virginia Commonwealth

Little Rock
4) Vanderbilt
13) Sam Houston State (Southland)
5) Xavier
12) Cleveland State

Anaheim
3) St. Mary's
14) Boise State (WAC)
6) Arizona
11) West Virginia

Tampa
2) Michigan State
15) Lafayette (Patriot)
7) Oklahoma
10) Clemson

West Region
Raleigh
1) Duke
16) Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
8) Kent State
9) Marquette

Denver
4) Indiana
13) Oral Roberts (Summit)
5) Stanford
12)UMass

Washington DC
3)Butler
14) Marist (MAAC)
6) Rhode Island
11) BYU

Tampa
2) Tennessee
15) Hampton (MEAC)
7) Baylor
10) Notre Dame

Golden Rankings: FCS, or not FCS?

Basketball Rankings have moved to the sidebar---->

As you may recall, we started the football season by explaining that we were going to prepare a slightly different version of Golden's rankings, one that included FCS (or I-AA) teams in it. Now that the season has finished, I thought it might be a good time to take a look at both rankings and see if the differences between the two rankings can give us any insight as to how to proceed next year. Golden's final rankings are here, mine are here.

How much did the two rankings actually differ?
When you take a look at my ranking of the I-A (sorry, FBS) teams relative to each other, you find that although most teams have moved slightly one way or the other, there are few teams that have moved significantly. Of the 120 FBS teams, only eight differed between the two ranking sets more than 10 spots, and one of those, Western Kentucky, was different by 46 spots because it played a schedule of half FBS teams, and half FCS teams. If there was one common thread among those that differed the most, it was teams that beat top level FCS teams and didn't get credit for beating 8 or 9 win teams. Ironically, the FBS participant in the most infamous FCS/FBS game this year, Michigan, finished in the exact same position in each system.

Was there a difference in how the two ranking sets did in predicting the outcome of the bowl games?
At the heart of it, a power ranking system like these two is really designed to help predict future outcomes. So which system was better? Mine, but not by much. Golden's system went 16-16, mine went 18-14, with one match-up, West Virginia/Oklahoma, a virtual dead heat before the game. We differed on four games: The aforementioned Fiesta bowl, the Motor City Purdue/CMU clash, the Insight Bowl's Indiana/Oklahoma State game, and the USC/Illinois Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl went to Golden, the rest to me.

So what does this all mean? Is it worth the time and effort to include FCS teams in the rankings?
I would say yes, but I do feel that the system needs to be refined to count wins over FCS teams less than wins over FBS teams (say 0.75 wins) and losses to FCS teams extra. Exactly what that percentage is, we will examine in our next post. In the meantime, I await Golden's thoughts.

College Hoops Rankings

Golden College Basketball rankings for 1/14/08



Top Gainer: Delaware - With four wins over 8, 8, 9 and 11 win teams, two of them on the road.
Biggest Loser: IPFW, with two bad losses to South Dakota State and previously winless Ball State
Big Upsets: Charlotte's ten point win at Clemson. This is actually a familiar pattern for the Tigers. Last year they were the last team to lose a game, starting out 17-0, before losing to highly ranked Maryland and North Carolina teams and then tanking the rest of the way, going 4-10 down the stretch.
-Northern Colorado, who lost to a bad Idaho State team a week earlier, winning at 13-3 San Diego State.
Bad box scores, take one: George Washington beats St. Louis 49-20. St. Louis only scored 7 points in the first half, and shot 7-48 in the game.
Bad box scores, take two: Not to be outdone, MSU and Iowa produced one of the ugliest games in recent Big Ten history (and that's saying a lot). The two teams combined to go 27-92 from the field, 17-33 from the free throw line and had 26 turnovers. Iowa was slightly less ugly, 43-36.
Biggest Home Court Advantage: From a numerical perspective, no one can beat little Presbyterian College, who is 0-20 away from home, and 2-0 at home. Check out their story here.
And then there were three: Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State all lost their first games of the year, leaving North Carolina, Kansas, and Memphis as the only teams without a blemish. The Wazzou loss at UCLA was understandable, and the Cougars will still compete for the Pac Ten title. Mississippi and Vanderbilt were probably over achieving a little, and might come back to earth when they reach the heart of the SEC schedule. Kansas and UNC, while among the best teams in the country, are not going to go undefeated through their respective conferences. Memphis, on the other hand, just might. They are so far ahead of the rest of the Conference USA, it will be an upset if anyone stays within 10.

Conference Rankings:
UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, & Stanford lead the Pac Ten to the top.

Roundball Rankings

With the CFB season winding down, and before we get really wrapped up in recruiting, this seems like a good time to debut the Golden Basketball rankings for the season.

The Golden BB rankings are similar to the football rankings in that teams get credit for each win, loses points for each loss, gets points for each win a defeated opponent and each opponent's opponent wins, and loses points for each loss of a team that beat them, and each opponents' opponents' losses. There are also bonuses for excessive victory margin and penalties for large defeats. One big difference between the football rankings and the basketball rankings is how road and home wins and loses are treated. The football rankings gives 1 point for each loss, penalizes 1 point for each loss, and awards road win bonuses and has home loss penalties. The basketball rankings mirrors what the NCAA's RPI rankings do an award 1.4 points for each road win, and 0.6 points for each home win. The loss penalties are reversed, 1.4 of home, 0.6 for road. Neutral site games are one point each way. I have tried to list all games not played at one of the two teams main home court as neutral site games. This includes some games at one-sided neutral site games, like a Kansas game in KC, or an MSU game in Detroit.

Team Rankings as of 12/31 are listed below:



Conference Rankings:

Breaking Down the Brackets

June 19, 2008 Note: This is a post that originally appeared on Golden's Football Rankings and is reproduced here for posterity.

By now most of you have seen the brackets and have probably turned in a few entries in the office pool. For those of you who haven’t, I offer a few alternatives to the traditional bracket style pool:

Points by Seeds
Each player selects eight teams. You get points when one of your teams wins, based on their seed. One x seed in the first round, Two x seed in the second round, Four x seed in the third round, etc. The key is to pick the right upsets, the teams that are under seeded. Anyone who picked George Mason in this setup last year was golden.

Random Draw
This one is popular in our office when it comes down to the sweet sixteen. Eight players all put in ten dollars and draw two teams out of a hat. The one who gets the winning team wins the pot. Pure gambling. No skill, no analysis required, just simple, plain, dumb luck.

Last Man Standing
A little bit of a twist on the popular NFL game. Each participant has to pick one team to win each round. The trick is, they have to pick an upset (by the seeds) each time. If they pick correctly, they go on to the next round. No limitations on picking the same team twice, as teams rarely upset more than two teams in the tournament. This one takes a large number of participants, as its really easy for a lot of people to miss on their picks at the same time.

Fantasy Draft
For hoops junkies only. Requires 8, 16 or 32 players. Depending on the number of entries, each participant is put into a match for the first two rounds against another participant. Everyone “drafts” four players from the NCAA teams. The winner after the first round of games is the one whose players have the most points. After the first round they advance to another match. At the sweet sixteen, the remaining players re-draft. Can be really fun, but really time-consuming.


Snubs
Based on the Golden basketball rankings, the most deserving teams left out of the dance were Air Force (ranked #35), Syracuse (38), Drexel (40), Akron (41), Clemson (43) and Missouri State (45). The teams that took their places included: Purdue (51), Georgia Tech (52), Arkansas (53), Vanderbilt (56), Texas Tech (64), and Stanford (74). Despite the rankings, the most glaring omission in my mind was Drexel, who had as many road wins as Big Ten teams #3-#8.

Under seeded teams
Teams that appeared to be seeded too low in comparison to their rankings in the Golden poll – Virginia Commonwealth (11 seed, ranked 16), Davidson (13 seed, 21), Arizona (8 seed, 18), Nevada (7 seed, 15), Kentucky (8 seed, 17).
Conversely, teams that appear to be over seeded: Virginia Tech (5 seed, 46), Texas (4 seed, 28), Virginia (4 seed, 36), and USC ( 5 seed, 39).

Final Four Candidates:
Midwest: Florida, Oregon (The Badgers only if Brian Butch gets healthy)
West: UCLA, Kansas, Virginia Tech, SIU, Gonzaga (their history as a double digit seed is impressive)
South: Ohio State, Texas A&M (don’t know what to make of Memphis, wish they’d joined the Big East instead of Cinncy)
East: UNC, Marquette, Texas, G’town, Wash St (easily the toughest region)

My picks right now(ask me again before Thursday, its bound to change): Florida, UCLA, Texas A&M, G’Town.

March Madness Primer

June 19, 2008 Note: This is a post that originally appeared on Golden's Football Rankings and is reproduced here for posterity.

With the tournament season upon us, time to look at some of the more interesting teams:

Team most likely to repeat as conference champs: Memphis, Conference USA
The Tigers have not only won all of their conference games, only one team, Southern Miss has come within 10 points of them. To make matters worse for the rest of the league, the tournament will be held in Memphis.

Team least likely to repeat as conference champs: Iona, MAAC
Last year the Gaels went 23-8, won the conference title and lost to eventual final four team LSU in the Big Dance. This year they won their first game of the year in February and ended up 2-27. They play Rider in the first round of the tournament on Friday.

Traditional powers who won’t be dancing this year: Uconn, Illinois (?), Syracuse (?)
This list was a lot longer a few weeks ago. Teams like Michigan State and Maryland have played themselves off the bubble. After last year, can we put George Mason on this list?

Team that will surprise average fan with their seed: Southern Illinois
There are three types of fans who participate in your average office bracket pool: The basketball junkie, who can break down every team’s chances; the casual fan, who knows that Duke, Kansas, UCLA are usually pretty good, and knows which school are “major” schools, and which are mid-major, but not much more; and the guesser, who might as well draw names out of a hat. The Salukis will surprise that casual fan with their high (maybe a “2” or “3”) seed.

Best tournament to watch (BCS conference): Big East
The Big Ten resembles a hockey game with their tough defensive style. The Pac 10 gets up and down the court quickly, and the ACC represents the bluebloods of the sport. But for pure entertainment value, its hard to beat the Big East’s (Madison Square)Garden Party.

Best tournament to watch (Mid Major): Colonial
Four teams have over 20 wins (Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, Drexel, Hofstra) and all have decent tournament resumes, but are all far from a sure thing. If all four make the semi-finals, it could produce three great games.

Teams to root for if you are bubble team in a major conference:
These are the small conference teams that might be strong enough to make the tournament without winning their tournament.
Memphis, CUSA
Winthrop, Big South
Southern Illinois or Missouri State or Creighton, Missouri Valley
Butler, Horizon
Davison or Appalachian State, Southern

Final Four: Just some wild guesses
UCLA, Florida, Virginia Tech, and Texas


-I don’t know which was worse, Bruce Pearl in full orange body paint, or Pat Summitt in a cheerleader outfit. Let’s just be thankful that Phil Fulmer didn’t participate in this love-in.

Comissioners, recruiting, and busted brackets

June 19, 2008 Note: This is a post that originally appeared on Golden's Football Rankings and is reproduced here for posterity.

One of the more interesting developments in college basketball in the last couple of years is the emergence of ESPN’s Bracket Buster Day. Basically, ESPN has convinced about half of the Division One teams in the country not to schedule any games on one day. ESPN then arranges match-ups for all of those teams, where each team plays someone from another conference that they normally wouldn’t play. It’s great for college basketball fans, especially those who follow the mid-major conferences. It is, however, a royal pain in the you know what for someone trying to maintain a basketball ranking database ;-)
Bracket Buster was last Saturday. The real winners from a conference standpoint were the Horizon and WAC, who both went 7-2. On the other end of the scale, the Ohio Valley went 2-9. The most impressive victory went to Southern Illinois, which scored its first victory on the road against a ranked team since 1976, when it won by 4 at Butler. Also scoring a big win was Winthrop, which won at Missouri State.

Golden’s comment about the disappointing class from Ohio State illustrates one of the problems with the recruiting rankings. All of the different recruiting rankings base their overall scores on the number of recruits a school signs. In terms of average # of stars per recruit, OSU had a top five class. But because they signed half as many as some of the SEC schools, they appeared to have a “mediocre” class.
This brings up another interesting point. SEC schools traditionally “over sign” players. That is they sign more players than they have scholarships for, assuming that some will fall by the wayside. An interesting examination of this is found here.

This is of course is what Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney was responding to in his quite surprising broadside of the SEC. While I agree with much of what Delaney was saying, I’m not sure that it’s really an argument that a league commissioner should be making. Yes the SEC schools do operate a little differently when it comes to marginalizing players who don’t make the cut and cutting academic corners for their “student”-athletes (see Auburn independent study programs), but it’s not like the Big Ten is squeaky-clean. One look at the typical Ohio State linebacker’s class load will confirm that. The argument Delaney is making falls into an old regional stereotype of southerners as dimwitted that dates back almost 200 years. It’s no truer than the old yarn about southern teams being “faster” and northern teams being more “powerful.” Leave that argument to the fans on the message boards and in the bars. Stick to making sure the Big Ten network finds its way onto every local cable station, and find a way to make a playoff work in college football.

Sound and Fury

June 19, 2008 Note: This is a post that originally appeared on Golden's Football Rankings and is reproduced here for posterity.

Just a few random ramblings on this MLK day…

I have been a college football fan for the better part of three decades. I consider myself to be reasonably observant, and am a decent writer. But I find myself humbled when I compare what I write for this site with what is written by those who blog about college football on a regular basis. I urge all college football fans to check out the College Football Blogger Awards. The people who write for these sites continually produce material that is insightful, educational, inspiring, and hilarious. Do your self a favor and spend an hour or so checking out the sites linked above.

I found the article about Jim Delaney quite enlightening. There is not doubt that any plan for a potential playoff will have to go thru him, and indirectly thru the Big Ten Presidents. I think the same could be said of SEC Commissioner, Mike Slive. I think the only reason he doesn’t cut as imposing a figure as Delaney is that he is newer on the job. Clearly Roy Kraemer was the same type of power broker. Those two men hold the key to the BCS, and any future playoff plans. If you convince the 23 presidents in those two conferences, the other conferences will fall in line. The most interesting point made in that article was made by Delaney himself. As long as the bowls keep doing well financially, there will be no extended playoff. If the bowls keep making money for the major schools, what incentive do they have to eliminate them? If you really want a playoff, stop watching and going to bowl games.

I think the NBA age limit has had a positive impact on college basketball this year. There are a number of outstanding college freshmen, like Greg Oden of Ohio State and Kevin Durant of Texas that have really made this season quite interesting.

The Big Ten really only has three sure-fire tournament teams: Wisconsin, which is a Final Four type team (Is this the year Bo Ryan gets over the postseason hurdle), Ohio State, which will be better at the end of the year than they are now, and Indiana. Beyond that there are a number of teams with serious question marks: Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State. Minnesota, Penn State and Northwestern will not be making any post season tournaments. If I had to say right now, I would guess that Tom Izzo will find a way to get the Spartans in. The other four will probably be NIT bound.

Interesting that Illinois has a football coach who can recruit, but not coach, and a basketball coach who can coach, but not recruit.

I’ve been toying with the idea of changing the rankings a little bit to better reflect the way the NCAA does their RPI rankings. The NCAA counts each home win as 0.6 points, and each road win as 1.4 points. A home loss is a negative 1.4 points; a road loss is a negative 0.6 points. Our system counts all wins and losses as one and negative one points respectively, but awards road win and home loss bonuses based on the strength or weakness of the opponent. I think I will try to duplicate the database with the NCAA’s version of home vs. road games and see if it makes any difference in the final rankings. I will post the year-end version of the modified rankings.

Rankings and other geeky stuff

June 19, 2008 Note: This is a post that originally appeared on Golden's Football Rankings and is reporduced here for posterity.

As some of you may know, I have adapted a version of the Golden rankings for college basketball. I have also maintained my own database of the Golden college football rankings, with a slight modification in the guidelines. Instead of not counting the wins over I-AA teams, I count them, but do not record any bonus points for opponent’s wins, opponent’s opponents’ wins, margin of victory or road wins. I do penalize teams for losses to I-AA teams by counting them as losses to 10 loss teams with 40 opponents’ opponents’ losses. The rationale is that the average I-AA team would finish at or near the bottom of most I-A conferences. Teams should get some credit for winning those games, but not much.
So my rankings have been slightly different than the ones published on the website most of the year. For the most part, the difference in the rankings has been one of degrees, with little variation in the order of teams. So I found it interesting when the “official” Golden rankings ended up with Florida as the #1 team, followed by Ohio State and Michigan. My version of the rankings, which gave teams points for beating I-AA teams had Florida #3, behind OSU and Michigan. Why would Florida have less points in relation to the other two, in my system, where they got points for their win over Western Carolina, and all of the SEC wins of over I-AA teams? I went back and double checked all my entries to make sure I hadn’t entered anything wrong for the three teams.
As I did this, it occurred to me that the difference came in the fact that the poll is based on the average points per game, not total points. Florida was ranked lower in my version of the rankings because their Western Carolina win was their lowest point total of the season, outside of the Auburn loss. Put it another way, the reason Florida’s schedule appears more difficult in the Golden rankings is that their weakest opponent is dropped from that calculation. If you removed Michigan’s win over Ball State, or Ohio State’s win over Illinois, their average points per game would shoot up past Florida’s. It’s the same reason Auburn was atop the 2004 Golden rankings, their win over I-AA Citadel was not factored in. Essentially the Golden rankings as they are configured now unfairly reward the high level teams that play I-AA opponents by not counting those weak teams in their schedule strength.

-Speaking of basketball rankings, doing the rankings for the first time, I have been struck at how the Missouri Valley Conference has jumped up the conference rankings. They’ve done it by creating strength throughout the entire conference. The league is 62-18 out of conference, all teams are over .500 and they have wins over Big Ten, Big Twelve, Big East, SEC, and ACC teams. They’ve also beaten other strong mid-majors, like Butler, who won the preseason NIT, and last year’s Cinderella, George Mason. If they keep this up, they might bring home another four bids to the big conference.

-I was happy to see Greg Schiano and Rich Rodriguez turn down big money to stay in the Big East. There are some things more important than money (although both will be rewarded handsomely for staying). Soul and heart, and being a part of a tradition. Rodriguez is an alum and is setting himself to be a big part in the history of Mountaineer football. Schiano could be the lynchpin of a new history in Rutgers. That’s not to say that Alabama and Miami don’t have a history and tradition of their own. It’s just that those two coaches are not a part of those histories in the same way they are in the current locations.
-Alabama, in particular, has really lost the soul and heart of a once great program. By firing Mike Shula, and alum who came in under challenging circumstances, the Tide has become the same sort of mercenary program that swiped their last good coach, Dennis Francione. Now that they have left at the alter by many of the big names out there, they are hoping they can get lucky, ala Ohio State in 2001, and hire a little known coach who can recapture the essence of Bear Bryant’s program.
-Tom O’Brien’s move didn’t make any sense to me. Boston College to NC State? Not only an inter conference move, and inter division move. He has really established a strong program at BC, one that looked like they could be a serious player in the ACC for some time. Was the money in Raleigh that much better?
-The hot rumor around these parts is former UofM quarterback, Jim Harbaugh to Central Michigan to replace the departed Brian Kelly. Harbaugh spent the last year at non-scholarship, I-AA San Diego and led them to an 11-1 record. A lot of people around here would love to see him back in Ann Arbor, where he grew up.