More Adjustments and a final bracket

I increased the bonus for beating a top 50 team and the penalty for losing to a below 200 team. I also increased the road win bonus and home loss penalty. Final ranking (minus the Big Ten championship, which is still ongoing) is up. I also posted the final bracket.
Before anyone pipes up, I offer my critique of my own bracket. Remember my bracket is just a reflection of the rankings, and not an opinion of who should be in, or an attempt to recreate the process that the actual selection committee goes through.

Teams that are in my bracket, but don't belong in the Dance:
Texas A&M
Auburn
San Diego State
Creighton

Teams that are out that should be in:
Wisconsin
Boston College
Maryland
Davidson (I just want to see Curry play some more)

Teams that are ranked too high:
MSU (should be a 2)
Duke (2/3)
Gonzaga (5/6)
Utah State (8/9)
Xavier (4/5)

Teams ranked too low:
North Carolina (1)
Louisville (1)
Memphis (2/1)
Florida State (4/5)
UCLA (5/6)

Tweaking the rankings

I made some adjustments to the rankings, and consequently to the brackets:

-I increased the weight of opponents' opponents, so that each win or loss of an opponents' opponent counts for 0.4 wins, instead of 0.2. I also added a "quality win" bonus (win over team in top 50) and "bad loss" penalty (loss to team under 200). These changes had the affect of helping major conference teams and hurting teams from smaller conferences.
-I eliminated the scores of games against Division II or lower schools. For most schools this didn't make much of a difference, but it did help some schools who had played just one game against lower level teams because it helped their average. For some of the really small conferences, it hurt the teams because it lowered the overall number of wins in the conference, thereby rewarding fewer points for each win.
-Finally, I adjusted the victory and loss margin rewards/penalties so that they reflected game totals and win / loss totals more accurately. This generally widened the margin between the good and the bad teams.

-For the brackets, in conferences that had finished their champion as of Sunday night, I included them. If not, I used the highest rated team still in the tournament.

For our new readers who felt the need to offer some constructive criticism, please remember that the bracketology is not meant as a prediction of the tournament field, but rather is a projection of the field using only our ranking system, which admittedly is imperfect and is still a work in progress (as evidenced by the changes above). Clearly we don't think Utah State is worthy of such a high seed, or Niagara worthy of a bid at all. But what we are trying to do is create a mathematical model that will simulate the strength and weaknesses of all teams that we can all observe, and thereby predict future results.

Bracketology Moved

I posted the Bracketology at the top of the page. It seemed silly to keep posting the same Google doc. I will also change the layout a little to fit the page better. Latest update coming later today or tommorrow.

Bracketology 2/15

Click on the 2-15 link for the most recent Bracketology.
Some of the highlights:
-UNC's win over Duke moves them up two lines to a one seed.
-Butler's home loss to Loyola drops them two lines
-Huge game Monday night between Pitt and UConn
-St. Mary's is dropping like a stone, from a #5 seed three weeks ago to a #11 this week.
-Bracketbusters comes up this next weekend, that could shake up the field quite a bit

Bracketology 2/8

Weird goings on with the brackets as conference play in the top conferences has cost some of the bigger schools their spotm while some smaller conferences have snuck in and grabbed a few extra bids. Gone from the bracket this week are Georgetown from the Big East, Kentucky from the SEC, Miami from the ACC, and Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin from the Big Ten. Meanwhile, the Mountain West got four teams in, and the tiny MAAC conference got two, including a number six seed in Siena.

Still plenty of time for things to change. The bracket buster weekend is coming up for the mid-majors and things will continue to shake out in the power conferences.

Bracketology 1/25

Offered without comment:

Bracketology Jan 18

I struggled a little bit with the best way to present this, and decided that Google Docs allowed me to fit the most information into a post, even though it doesn't look nearly as pretty as some other, more time-consuming options. Note that each week has their own sheet. Last Four In, First Four Out, and Number of Teams per conference are included in the doc for this week, just scroll down. So here it is:

Bracketology 2009

A new year, brings new bracket projection based on our Roundball Rankings.
As usual:
-Teams were placed based on the snaking method, with the top 2 in the same region as the lowest #1 seed, the highest #3 with the lowest #2, and so on.
-Teams were moved within their bands to avoid interconference matchups before the elite eight
-Teams with the conferences listed are autobid teams
-Regional sites were awarded based on the location of the top seed.
-Brackets are based on rankings as of Sunday Night, 1/4

Last Four In:
Creighton
Siena
LSU
Evansville

First Four Out:
Iowa
Purdue
Miami
Rhode Island

Bids by Conference:
Big East 8
ACC 7
Big Ten 6
Big Twelve 5
Pac Ten 5
SEC 4
MVC 3
A10 2
MAAC 2
Mountain West 2

Bracketology 3/2

Last Four In: 1)Mississippi; 2)Arkansas; 3)Arizona; 4)Creighton
First Four Out: 1)Houston; 2)Kansas State; 3)Oral Roberts; 4)Wright State

South Region
Little Rock
1) Memphis
16) Alabama State (SWAC) or UNC-Asheville (Big South)
8) Miami
9) Pittsburgh

Anaheim
4) Stanford
13) IUPUI
5) Drake
12) Rhode Island

Washington DC
3) Wisconsin
14) Santa Barbara (Big West)
6) BYU
11) Robert Morris

Denver
2) Texas
15) Boise State (WAC)
7) Marquette
10) Mississippi State


East Region
Raleigh
1) North Carolina
16) Morgan State (MEAC)
8) Davidson
9) Western Kentucky

Denver
4) Indiana
13) USC
5) Gonzaga
12) West Virginia

Tampa
3) Georgetown
14) Mississippi
6) South Alabama
11) Massachuttes

Birmingham
2) Vanderbilt
15) Siena (MAAC)
7) Kent State
10) Baylor


Midwest Region
Tampa
1) Tennessee
16) American (Patriot)
8) Clemson
9) Illinois State

Washington DC
4) UConn
13) Arizona
5) Michigan State
12) New Mexico

Omaha
3) Kansas
14) Belmont
6) Washington State
11) Florida

Omaha
2) Xavier
15) Maryland-Balt Cty (America East)
7) Purdue
10) Stephen F Austin


West Region
Raleigh
1) Duke
16) Portland State (Big Sky)
8) Virginia Commonwealth
9) Dayton

Little Rock
4) Louisville
13) Creighton
5) St. Mary's
12) Oklahoma

Birmingham
3) Butler
14) Arkansas
6) Notre Dame
11) Cornell

Anaheim
2) UCLA
15) Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
7) UNLV
10) Texas A&M

Bracketology 2/11/08

Last Four In: 1)Mississippi State; 2)NC State; 3)Miami; 4)Ohio State
First Four Out: 1)USC; 2)Illinois State; 3)West Virginia; 4)Oklahoma

South Region
Little Rock
1) Memphis
16) Alabama State (SWAC) or Lafayette (Patriot)
8) UNLV
9) Arizona

Denver
4) Indiana
13) Miami
5) Texas
12) Syracuse

Washington DC
3) Xavier
14) Santa Barbara (Big West)
6) Arkansas
11) Wright State

Anaheim
2) Georgetown
15) Cornell (Ivy)
7) South Alabama
10) Virginia Commonwealth

East Region
Raleigh
1) Duke
16) Portland State(Big Sky)
8) Florida
9) Houston

Anaheim
4) St. Mary's
13) Ohio State
5) Notre Dame
12) Stephen F. Austin

Tampa
3) Michigan State
14) Siena (MAAC)
6) Texas A&M
11) Marquette

Anaheim
2) UCLA
15) UNC-Ashville (Big South)
7) Missippi
10) Kent State

Midwest Region
Raleigh
1) North Carolina
16) Hampton (MEAC)
8) Pitt
9) Baylor

Denver
4) Stanford
13) Davison
5) Wisconsin
12) UMass

Birmingham
3) Vanderbilt
14) Utah State (WAC)
6) Dayton
11) Oral Roberts

Omaha
2) Drake
15) Robert Morris (Northeast)
7) Kansas State
10) Clemson

West Region
Tampa
1) Tennessee
16) Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
8) BYU
9) Purdue

Washington DC
4) UConn
13) NC State
5) Washington State
12)Creighton

Little Rock
3) Butler
14) Mississippi State
6) Rhode Island
11) Western Kentucky

Omaha
2) Kansas
15) Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
7) Gonzaga
10) Louisville

2/4 Bracketology

The first week in February brings some jumps up (Uconn) and Down (Ole Miss) in our weekly bracketology, with more big changes to come, given this week's schedule. As I write this, the top dogs in the WCC, Gonzaga and St. Mary's are in overtime. The top two teams in the Missouri Valley, Drake and Illinois State meet in Normal, Illinois on Tuesday. UCLA visits suddenly struggling Washington State on Thursday, Florida and Tennessee battle on Tuesday, and of course, Duke and Carolina renew their classic rivalry.
Last Four In: 1)Miami; 2)Umass; 3)West Virginia; 4)George Mason
First Four Out: 1)St. Joseph's; 2)USC; 3)Wright State; 4)Illinois State

South Region
Little Rock
1) Memphis
16) Alabama State (SWAC) or Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
8) South Alabama
9) Clemson

Anaheim
4) St. Mary's
13) George Mason
5) Texas
12) Seton Hall

Tampa
3) Michigan State
14) Boise State (WAC)
6) UNLV
11) Virginia Commonwealth

Anaheim
2) UCLA
15) Cornell (Ivy)
7) Florida
10) Pitt

East Region
Raleigh
1)North Carolina
16)Lafayette (Patriot)
8) Arizona
9) Baylor

Denver
4) Xavier
13) Stephen F Austin (Southland)
5) Indiana
12) West Virginia

Birmingham
3) Vanderbilt
14) UNC-Ashville (Big South)
6) Gonzaga
11) Purdue

Omaha
2) Drake
15) Robert Morris (Northeast)
7) Marquette
10) Houston

Midwest Region
Raleigh
1) Duke
16) Hampton (MEAC)
8) Arkansas
9) Oklahoma

Washington DC
4) Rhode Island
13) Oral Roberts (Summit)
5) Washington State
12) Syracuse

Little Rock
3) Butler
14) Rider (MAC)
6) Mississippi
11) Akron

Birmingham
2) Georgetown
15) Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
7) Texas A&M
10) Ohio STate

West Region
Tampa
1) Tennessee
16) Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
8) Kansas State
9) BYU

Denver
4) Stanford
13) Davidson (Southern)
5) UConn
12)UMass

Washington DC
3) Wisconsin
14) Santa Barbara (Big West)
6) Dayton
11) Miami, Fla

Omaha
2) Kansas
15) Maryland - Baltimore Cty (America East)
7) Notre Dame
10) Kent State

December Madness?

June 19, 2008 Note: This is a post that originally appeared on Golden's Football Rankings and is reproduced here for posterity.

So someone mentioned recently that with 32 bowl games, we have exactly 64 teams playing in the postseason. To complete the thought, I put together the 64 teams into a March madness style bracket, using the BCS rankings for the first 42 teams, and the Golden Rankings for the last 22. First two rounds are on campus. Midwest plays West, East plays Southeast. The bracket is listed below.

Midwest
1) Ohio State
16) Alabama

8) Houston
9) Arizona State

4) Rutgers
13) West Michigan

5) Tennessee
12) Texas Tech

3) Auburn
14) Oklahoma State

6) Boston College
11) Rice

2) Boise State
15) Minnesota

7) UCLA
10) Missouri


West
1) LSU
16) Miami

8) Oregon
9) Central Michigan

4) West Virginia
13) Kansas St

5) BYU
12) Nevada

3) Arkansas
14) San Jose St

6) Texas A&M
11) S. Miss

2) USC
15) Iowa

7) Ga Tech
10) S. Florida


Southeast
1) Florida
16) New Mexico

8) Hawaii
9) Navy

4) Virginia Tech
13) Purdue

5) California
12) Ohio

3) Notre Dame
14) Utah

6) Nebraska
11) Tulsa

2) Wisconsin
15) MTSU

7) TCU
10) Maryland


East
1) Michigan
16) Troy

8) Georgia
9) Clemson

4) Wake Forest
13) E Carolina

5) Texas
12) Cinncy

3) Oklahoma
14) Florida State

6) Oregon State
11) Kentucky

2) Louisville
15) No Illinois

7) Penn State
10) S Carolina

Lots of interesting match-ups, but the first round games that pop out at me are the Alabama at OSU game and the LSU/Miami rematch of the Peach Bowl. Of course something like this is entirely unrealistic, but who would’ve imagined 30 years ago that there would be 32 bowl games.

-I went to the Motor City Bowl last night. Not a bad game, not a bad venue, and overall a feel good night for the CMU Chips. As a fan of one of the big time programs, you never really realize how much wins in even a so-called lesser bowl mean to a fan base. There were a lot of CMU fans there calling this one of the biggest wins in the program’s history. What we forget when we complain about the glut of bowls is that these games give hope to the “other” I-A programs that have little to no chance of playing on the big stage of the BCS.

-The Motor City Bowl chose Middle Tennessee State instead of a major conference teams because it had no choice. A new NCAA rule this year stated that a 6-6 team could only qualify for a bowl if it was filling one of it’s conference’s bowl slots, or if all of the 7-5 or 8-4 teams are taken. That’s why 7-5 MTSU and NIU went to bowls while 6-6 Kansas, Arizona, Washington State and Pittsburgh stayed home. Personally, I think it is a great rule that will help level the playing field, if only a little bit.

-The talk of a “Plus One” playoff is encouraging, if only because it is an improvement on the current system. The system does have it flaws, and wouldn’t resolve all problems, but it would be a playoff and could lead to an enlarged tournament. The thing to remember is that a four, or even an eight-team tournament is not likely. Right now, there are 10 BCS bowl spots that pay 10-17 million each, eight of which go to the power conferences. Any playoff system that is enacted would have to either take place after the BCS bowls, or would have to guarantee at least 10 big payouts. Additionally, any system that does not reserve at least one spot for non-power conference teams could face a legal challenge, or political pressure. That means the only two possibilities that would be likely to get support from the power conference presidents would be a “plus one” or a twelve team tournament. Since a 12-team tournament seems like an unlikely first step, I would guess we will see more support for a post bowl game playoff after this BCS contract runs out.

-Did anybody tell the Oregon Ducks that their uniforms were, are and continue to be god-awful? I mean seriously, somebody has to tell them. We can’t let them go on embarrassing themselves like that.