Some Thanksgiving Thoughts

I don't have much to say about the Wisconsin game last week that I didn't already say about the Iowa game or the MSU game. It was the same damn game. Offense makes key mistakes early and doesn't get started until its too late. No defense whatsoever, with Wisconsin basically naming its score without really using half of its offense. Special teams were awful (although I was glad to see we finally started attempting some onside kicks, we should do that after every TD against OSU), there were questionable coaching decisions (why is Gallon still returning kicks?), and once again we looked like we don't belong on the same field as an upper echelon Big Ten team. I don't see how this gets better anytime soon.
-Despite the clusterfuck that was the field arrangement at Wrigley Field (make it, take it? Did the dlineman have to count to five apple?) I liked the game. The crowd was into the game and close to the action, being close to an EL station really seeemed to help the atmosphere. I hope they figure out the field configuration and make it an annual event.
-Terell Pryor might be the most talented player in the conferense, but he is probably one of the dumbest. His comments about Herbstriet being "a fake buckeye" on tweeter might be as stupid as his "everybody murders" quote from earlier this year. No one has done as much to promote the OSU program in the last ten years as Herbstreit, all the while maintaining his "impartiality". I'm guessing that Pryor will be about as successful in the NFL as another former buckeye star, Maurice Clarett.
-I'm not exactly a Nebraska fan, but I thought they got pretty screwed at Texas A&M on saturday. 17-3 penalty margin? Five personal fouls including a pretty weak roughing the passer call that kept alive A&M's winning drive? Right.
-Another year, another Virginia Tech appearance in the ACC championship game. Is there another team that has dominated their league so thoroughly and so quietlythe last five plus years?
-I know it's "just Fresno", but I found Boise's 51-0 win on Friday impressive. Fresno had been averaging almost 35 points a game (they scored 38 at Ole Miss) and Boise completely shut them down. I'm still hoping for Auburn and Oregon losses to give us a Boise / TCU national championship game.
-OSU President Gordon Gee's comments about Boise and TCU were sickening. Gee has proven in the past that he's not exactly a football expert. In 1992 he called a 13-13 tie between OSU and Michigan "the greatest victory in OSU history". While at Vanderbilt, he eliminated the athletic department and combined it with the department of student affairs. So why is this confirmed football neophyte speaking out about the worthiness of Boise and TCU's schedule? He's trying to protect his school's assets. He, like all the presidents of the power conferences, realizes that he needs to do whatever he can to protect the status quo and the economic inequity in the sport. Why are BCS conference presidents so opposed to a playoff that many say would bring in more money than the BCS? Because that money would spread out among all 11 conferences, and the power conferences would lose their huge monied advantages.
-Bowl eligibility watch: 35 bowl games, 70 teams needed to fill slots. 65 teams currently have six or more wins. 12 other teams are 5-6 or 5-5. 4 teams are 4-6 with two games remaining.

Stop me if you've heard this one before

Michigan comes out fired up, makes a defensive stop or two and takes the lead. Opponent comes right back down the field and scores and then continues to score throughout the second and third quarter. Michigan scores in the fourth quarter, but its too little to late. Michigan offense gains lots of yards, but is undone by turnovers. Michigan defense looks good in spots, but fails to make the stop at the key moments. Yes, this game looked a lot like the MSU game, and further reinforces what we have thought for several weeks now -- this team is not quite ready for prime time. The defense is still far too weak to be counted on to stop any team that is trying to score. Poor positioning, poor tackling, or just poor recognition - they simply don't have enough talent to be successful. The offense has also shown its youth in the last two weeks with costly turnovers, ridiculous penalties and an inability to make clutch plays. And special teams (other than punting) is still a weight on the offense.
Still, there were some positives:
-Tate's play (other than the two interceptions) was encouraging, and opens up the possibility of bringing him in future games as a change of pace when Denard is struggling.
-Kenny Demens looked better than horrible in place of Obi Ezeh. Hopefully his play against Iowa effectively ended Ezeh's playing time for the year.
-522 yards is a lot of yards to gain on a top ten defense. It does lend some credence that if (and that's a big if) turnovers can be cut down, this offense can duplicate some of their early season domination.
-The defensive and offensive lines played decently considering that David Molk and Mike Martin missed most of the game.
-The receivers looked good, especially in the fourth quarter. I think it's clear that most of them react better to Tate as a passer than Denard.
-Zoltan, Jr!
-Crowd was really into the game, especially during the mini-comeback in the fourth quarter. After the game, Iowa players reported troubles hearing audibles.

Of course, watching them shoot themselves in the foot for the second straight week has led to a lot of grumbling about Rich Rod and a lot of discussion about his future here. Towards the end of the game, there were chants of "We want Harbaugh" audible in the sections near us. Personally, I'm not ready to kick him to the curb just yet. There are still five games to be played, and there have been enough positive signs to suggest that a winning conference record is not far fetched. Unlikely, maybe, but not impossible. So I will reserve final judgement for at least two more weeks.

Thoughts on other games:
-The Wisconsin / OSU game was surprising so much because the Badgers, but rather for the way they won - by imposing their will on the Buckeyes and ramming the ball down their throat. I'm not surprised that the OSU offense stalled because they've looked rather pedestrian at times this year, but I didn't think Wisconsin would score over 30, when they only scored 20 against Arizona State at home.
-OSU's loss really helps MSU. If Iowa loses to Wisconsin this week, MSU has a one game margin over everyone in the conference, and can almost afford a lose in their toughest game left, in Iowa City. Of course, MSU has yet to play outside of the State of Michigan, and I wouldn't be surprised if Northwestern gives them a scare. Still, they are looking good for a New Year's day bowl, at least, if not a BCS bowl.
-I think we are heading for a TCU-Boise national championship game. The SEC undefeateds both have to play Alabama and each other. Oregon still has tough games with USC, Washington, Arizona and Oregon State. Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State all play each other, along with games against Nebraska and Texas. Finally, MSU still has to go to Iowa City. If Boise and TCU run the table, they will each be 37-1 in the last three years. Meanwhile, some other BCS bowl will feature a game that will be hyped as the "real" national championship game (Alabama/OSU in the Sugar, perhaps).

Warp speed ahead!

Photo - Michigan Daily

As I watched the end of the Boise State - Virginia Tech game on Labor Day night it occurred to me that the difference between the two minute offenses of Boise State and Virginia Tech embodies the struggles that many long-time Michigan fans are having in accepting the new Michigan offense. For the longest time, we had prototypical pro-style quarterbacks who like Boise's Kellen Moore could surgically take apart any defense with his passing even when everyone knew they had to pass. Now with a system that emphasizes a quarterback's running skills and athleticism more than his passing skills, I think many Michigan fans fear that we will be unable to run an effective two minute offense, just as Virginia Tech's Tyrod Taylor was unable to do at the end of the Labor Day game.

Among the multitude of amazing things Denard Robinson did on Saturday perhaps the most significant thing was to show those Michigan fans still uncomfortable with the new offense that just because he is not 6-4 with feet of clay doesn't mean he can't deliver in crunch time when everyone knows he needs to pass the ball. With the game on the line and 75 yards away from pay dirt, he went 5-6 for 55 yards and added 17 yards rushing with a fourth and one conversion and a touchdown rushing. Any doubting that he can be a complete quarterback is either not paying attention or is looking for reasons to complain.

The offense still has things to work on: the running backs have not been productive, the down field passing is inconsistent, and the propensity for bad penalties is gonna cost them at some point. Although last year taught us not to get to far ahead of ourselves, I think it is safe to say that baring some key injuries, this offense will be fairly productive.

The Defense? We won. Can't say too much more than that. They did appear to limit the ND rushing attack a little bit, but didn't get much pressure on the ND QBs and had some significant lapses in coverage. Cam Gordon took a couple of bad angles that led to two long ND touchdowns. Missed tackles were numerous, and the two inside LBs are about 50/50 to make the right read. We don't really know how good the ND offense is, but it's probably safe to say that the defense still has a long way to go to get to adequate. We won't discuss the special teams.

So big picture, where are we? One game closer to the seven wins we need to go bowling. I'd like to say this is better than a 7-5 team, but after last year, we know things can go south really quickly when the team has serious depth issues. Looking at the schedule, based on games played so far, there appears to be four teams that we would seem to be better than: UMass, Purdue, Bowling Green, & Illinois, five teams we don't have enough evidence to judge yet based on over matched opponents: Iowa, MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin, & Penn State (a loss @ Alabama doesn't prove anything major), and one team, Ohio State that appears clearly better than us. If I had to guess now, based on last year, Iowa and Wisconsin will join OSU in that last group, and Indiana will join the first group.

Some other thoughts:
-I'm sure you'll hear from negative nancies in the media and opposing fans how Denard won't survive the season carrying the ball 30 times a game and Michigan's offense will suffer if he goes down. While there is some truth in that, it's no more true for us than it is for any other team. Where would OSU be if Pryor went down? How's Florida doing so far without Tebow? Is a QB that carries the ball more likely to get injured than a RB who carries that much? I think that part of the negative reaction towards the amount of carries Denard gets has to do with that uncomfortableness with the offense we discussed above.
-I'm sure he got approval of the team doctors, but I wonder if Brian Kelly's decision to put Dayne Crist back in the game was a sound one. Crist's vision problems would seem to suggest a potentially serious concussion or head injury that would keep him out of the whole game. I'd hate to think that the decision to put him in was motivated by the horrible play of his backups, and you just hope that there are no lingering issues for Crist.
-Didn't see much of any of the other big ten games to draw many conclusions, other than the large white stripe on the MSU helmets looked bad and I wished we played Minnesota this year. What the heck Gophers? At least when we lost to an FCS team, we lost to the three time defending champs, not a .500 team that's only been playing Division one for four years.
-Bad day for the MAC. They went 2-5 in non conference play with two losses to FCS teams (Akron to Gardner Webb, Ball State to Liberty). The conference should really consider an en masse move to FCS.
-Almost equally bad day for the ACC, with losses to an FCS team (see below), a poor Kansas team, and big losses in marquee games by Miami and Florida State. They look to be a one bid league in terms of the BCS, yet again.
-USC looked fairly average. Pac Ten will be decided Oct 2 when Stanford visits Oregon. The amount of empty seats in Neyland Stadium midway through the fourth quarter was quite impressive.
-Biggest loser this week? Probably Boise State, whose "big" win over Virginia Tech became virtually worthless when the Hokies fell to FCS "power" James Madison. I can see another 12-0 season ending in a random BCS bowl game (but not "the" game) against TCU.
-The news on Friday that FCS power Villanova has been asked to join the Big East in football confirms what many have said for years -- the Big East doesn't deserve a BCS bid. Villanova currently plays in a 12,000 seat stadium, probably draws less per game than two other Philly area teams (Penn and Temple), and probably falls about ten spots down in the sports consciousness of the typical Philly fan. I know that UConn made a similar jump a decade ago, but they weren't really competing with anything else other than Husky basketball.
-On a final note, one of the all time greatest Wolverines, Ron Kramer, passed away on Saturday. I'd like to think he spent the afternoon watching the game with Bo, Yost, & Bob Ufer. Godspeed, # 87.

Depth Charges

More than anything else, games like yesterday's game against Eastern are about depth - developing depth by giving backups and second and third stringers a chance to play, and using depth to avoid the inevitable letdown that comes when you play a team you're expected to beat handily.

It's clear that we have developed the depth we need to be a championship team in some areas, but are still sorely lacking in others. We have as much talent at the offensive skill positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) as anyone in the league. The depth certainly helped yesterday. Tate Forcier had his worst game of the year. He missed a number of passes. Not Threet or Sheridan missed, but turn a 20 yard gain into a 5 yard gain type misses. A number of times he passed up a sure couple of yards trying to make a big play. It seemed pretty clear that he had read some of his press clippings this week and wanted to show that he was the newest superstar. As a result, our passing game was not nearly as efficient yesterday as it was the previous two weeks. In it's place was a devastating rushing attack. From the first snap, it was clear that Carlos Brown was going to have a great game. Eastern had no answer for his speed. Michael Shaw looked almost as good.

On the other hand, it's equally clear that we are nowhere near a championship level defense, and we are amazing thin there. With the Big Ten suspending Jonas Mouton just a day before the game, we were left starting a walk-on, Kevin Leach at linebacker. What's worse, he appeared to be the better of our two inside linebackers. Obi Ezah just seems lost out there at times -- tentative, slow, and consistently out of position. EMU basically had success with two plays, a sort of counter that sucked the linebackers into the line, before the RB bounced the play around the end, and a play action waggled that got the linebacker open crossing in front of the moving QB. Both plays really took advantage of the decision making of our linebackers. Given that poor play, I was disappointed to not see more of the backups once we got up big late in the second half. If backups like Kenny Demens, Brandon Smith, and JB Fitzgerald can't get playing time against Eastern, the chance of them helping later in the year is slim to none.

Bullets:
-Eastern may have provided the game plan to beat us this year -- run, run, run, play action to the TE. Keep our D on the field.
-Denard clearly has a long way to go at QB. He made a couple of bad reads that led to our two turnovers. But he has good arm, decent mechanics, and of course could turn off the light and be in bed before it gets dark. The bar is not very high for his passing competency. He only needs to be adequate at passing to make him a quarterback capable of moving the ball against good defenses.
-I was hoping to see more of the OL backups - Omaneh, Barnum, Khoury, Mealer.
-I hope Andy Schmitt is ok. He's a good QB, and Eastern really has no chance of having any sort of season without him. I was watching him with the binoculars when he went down, it looked bad. He planted and his knee buckled.
-There were a couple of spreads this week that looked like fool's gold. Unfortunately this fool only recognized one of the three before the games were played. What's the old saying, "It's not the Xs and Os, it's the Jimmies and the Joes." In college football, most times, talent wins. That's why OSU wins 10 or 11 games every year with the world's dullest offense. There were three games where the talent gap between the two teams seemed to be at odds with the spread:
1) BYU was favored by a touchdown over Florida State. While everyone focused on BYU's win over Oklahoma and how they executed, the truth is, even as much as the 'Noles have slipped in recent years, they still have a lot more talent than BYU
2) Oklahoma was only favored over Tulsa by 18. Everyone wondered if OU could recover from the loss of Sam Bradford. But remember that a program as good as OU always has talent waiting in the wings. Given a couple of weeks, It should have been obvious that Landry Jones (the backup QB) would be just fine.
3) Florida was favored by 30 over Tennessee. With all the hype about Kiffin's comments and conjecture about how much Florida would run up the score, we lost sight of the fact that Tennessee's problem in recent years hasn't been their defense, and that they still have a fair amount of talent, with a very good defensive coordinator, Monte Kiffin.
-Watching the Texas - Tex Tech game, it appeared to me that the new enclosed end of the stadium, which was only partially completed when we went there, makes a big difference in the noise level of the stadium. Perhaps I should attend another game there.
-I think that the end might be near for the USC "dynasty" They really looked quite mediocre against the Huskies and I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to Cal, UCLA, or even, gasp, Notre Dame. I think Carroll should really think about opening up the offense a little, there appears to be little imagination in what they do.
-Is it just me, or did it seem like Tennessee wasn't really trying to win the game against Florida, so much as just keep the score down.
-I didn't really see much of the MSU/ND game, but it looked very similar to our game against ND a week earlier, except that the absence of Michael Floyd hurt the Irish in the stretch run. I was kinda surprised how much the announcers were commenting on every penalty the Irish got. I think that they've bought into what Weis was trying to convey last week - they only lost to us because of the officials.
-The Arkansas / Georgia game was absolutely bonkers. Ryan Mallet is going to make opposing defensive coaches in the SEC sweat for three years. Of course the Razorbacks don't have enough other talent to win a title, but their games will be fun to watch.
-Ditto for the Fresno / Boise game on Friday night. Boise may have a great rushing attack and some good skill players, but they will get carved up when they play a BCS conference team on New Year's if they don't improve their rush defense. A lot. And why did Fresno keep kicking the ball deep, after giving up two kickoff returns for TDs (one that counted) and two other 60 plus yard returns? Pat Hill is vastly overrated as a coach. Did you realized that he has never won a conference title?

Opening Night thoughts

-The Boise State / Oregon games was kinda disappointing last night, I was hoping for some offensive fireworks, and Oregon did their best impression of Michigan's 2008 offense. Its just one game, but Chip Kelly looked kinda lost out there. It doesn't help that Mike Belloti was running around after the game telling reporters the coaching adjustments that needed to be made. And of course, the despicable display by Oregon's starting RB after the game can only serve to create some pressure on Kelly.
-There is a great old quote about former president Warren Harding by senator William McAdoo;

His speeches leave the impression of an army of pompous phrases moving over the landscape in search of an idea. Sometimes these meandering words would actually capture a straggling thought and bear it triumphantly a prisoner in their midst until it died of servitude and overwork.

that I am reminded of whenever I watch a game with Bob Davie announcing. Most of it is mindless drivel, but every once in a while he actually stumbles upon a decent point. Last night he made in relation to the question of could Boise compete in the BCS conferences. He pointed to the fact that even a slightly above average BCS team like Oregon has had three times as many NFL draft picks as Boise. Simply put, they don't have enough talent to make it through an entire season in a BCS conference unscathed.
-That being said, if they go undefeated they should get some consideration for the national championship game if there aren't other undefeated teams. The way college football crowns its champion right now rewards the team with the best record, as opposed to the team that is the best.
-I watched a little bit of the Indiana / Eastern Kentucky snoozer. The new addition to the IU stadium look good. Empty, but good. I question the need for an addition to a stadium that never sells out. Do 30,000 empty seats really look more impressive than 20,000 empty seats?
As for the game, Indiana looked pretty bad. I wonder if they would ever consider scrapping the football program, so they could just concentrate on basketball.