Who needs defense?

Lon Horwedl / annarbor.com


One of the reasons I enjoy having football season tickets is that even in the midst of disappointing seasons you get these moments and games that are pure magic. In the middle of our first rose bowl less season in four years, 1979, we got Wangler to Carter, the greatest play in the first 100 years of Michigan football. In the middle of the Year of Infinite Pain, 2005, we got Manningham's dagger in the heart of Penn State. Even the awful 3-9 2008 campaign produced a comeback for the ages against Wisconsin.
That's what saturday's game was. Put aside all the disappointment from the last three games, all the concerns about the defense, all the speculation of will he stay? or will he go? and just enjoy an entertaining game. It was interesting that we heard little if any booing during the game. Sure there were no shortage of sarcastic comments or cheers, including a hearty round of "Save your job, Save your job" during the first overtime, but there wasn't the booing or "We want Harbaugh" chants we heard at the iowa game. Maybe the first play TD strike to Roundtree placated the fans a little. Or maybe we've just moved past the anger and depression stages of grieving for our defense and moved on to acceptance. Illinois just scored on a 60 yard run. So what? We know our defense sucks, when's the offense coming back out on the field?
Long ago, when I was much younger and was particularly down that my plans in life didn't seem to be working out, a good friend told me, "If you can't figure out a plan for life, just figure out a plan for today." So we take this approach going forward - the big picture will take care of itself, we will focus on each game, trying to get as much enjoyment out of the four(!) remaining Michigan football games as we can and worry about the big picture items later.
Other thoughts:
-Any doubts the last three games might have created about this offense were emphatically erased by this game. The Illini were the #15 defense in the country and hadn't given up more than 26 points in any game this year, despite playing three top ten teams, Missouri, OSU, and MSU. We got that in a half. The hadn't given up more than 390 yards in any one game this year, we got 386 in the first half. There is no doubt that as long as Rich Rod stays here, we will have one of the best offenses in the country.
-Despite the massive numbers, I acutally thought there were signs of progress on defense. Craig Roh is much better as a Dlineman than a LB. Courtney Avery palyed well, and made a good open field tackle on a player that was very similar to the one against Iowa that he missed and allowed them to get their last field goal. Finally, I think Cam Gordon is a better fit at the Spur position than at safety because of his size.
-I loved the reverse on the kickoff but don't understand why Jeremy Gallon is allowed to continue to return kicks after he fumbles one. I also think that we should be onside kicking every once an a while. With our defense, the opposition can (and will) score from almost anywhere. Why not take a chance on getting the ball back? If they are going to bring in new defensive coaches, they should consider finding one or two who have experience coaching special teams.
-I hope Tate Forcier realizes how important a good backup QB is in this offense. At the start of the year, all the buzz was about Denard and how he was a one man offense. In this game (and to a lesser extent the Iowa game), Tate showed that this offense is lethal no matter who is pulling the trigger. If he comes back next year, we will have the best QB situation in the country.
-Nice to see Michael Shaw back at something approaching 100%. Vincent Smith ran a lot better because he didn't have to shoulder all (or most) of the load.
-The receivers had a very nice game (obviously). We don't have that one dominant reciever that we had in the past with Braylon or Manningham, but we might have as much depth there as we've had in a long long time.
-Hurry back Carl Grapentine. The substitute PA guy was awful.
-I think it's safe to cross Arizona off the list of teams that could possibly beat Oregon. They were dominated by Stanford and have to travel to Eugene in three weeks. After a game at Cal, who just won their first road game of the year at Washington State, this weekend, they get a bye, Arizona at home, and then must travel to Corvallis to play Oregon State. Interestingly enough, the Beavers have already played (and lost to) TCU and Boise State. The season ending tilt against the Nike Ducks might be the last chance those two teams have to reach the championship game.
-Another classic game in Baton Rouge. it's too bad they won't get a chance to play in the SEC championship game, because I think they might be the best team in the league.

Much Better

Now that's the way games against over matched opponents are supposed to go: Offensive excellence early and often, defense getting enough stops and turnovers to keep the game out of reach, and lots of young players getting their first substantial action on both sides of the ball. In the long run this game probably means about as much as last week's game -- its a win, read more into the game at your own peril -- but it is certainly funner to discuss and to relive, so here goes:
-The media seems to be overplaying the Denard injury just a little bit. It seemed fairly clear that he was alright, based on the way he was jumping around on the sideline. I still don't get the idea that he would be any more prone to injury as a QB running the ball than a running back carrying the ball.
-Yes, patsy opponent and all, but Tate Forcier looked good. The ovation he got when he took the field was heartwarming, and his comments after the game were encouraging. I know I was ready to write him off after his comments in the immediate aftermath of the UConn win, but his subsequent walk back of those comments and behavior since then show that maybe, just maybe, he's grown up a little bit through this whole ordeal.
-Gardner also looked good, but I think if Denard were to go down for any period of time, we'd be better off with Tate at the helm, even though he doesn't bring Devin's overall athleticism. I think Tate just brings some better reads and more accuracy. Either way, we have some of the better QB backups in the country.
-I liked the new punt formation, with three returners back, Odoms, Gallon, and Dileo, to combat the rugby style roll punts from the spread formation that a lot of teams are running these days. The extra returners allowed us to return a few punts that previously had ended up bouncing 20 yards, or had turned into turnovers when Gallon tried to dive after the ball.
-Not a bad first career carry by Fitz Toussaint, huh? I'd worry more about him being caught from behind if he weren't wearing a knee brace.
-I thought the freshman Ray Vinopal showed a good nose for the ball on his late interception. Now if we could just put a few pounds on him so he doesn't cough the ball up after his interception.

Thoughts from other games:
-I wonder if Alabama's come from behind win in Arkansas was just the first of many such games for the defending champs this year. With the way their schedule is set up, with many teams getting bye weeks before they play them, they're gonna get everyone's best shot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall behind against Florida, LSU, South Carolina, or Auburn. But they just seem to have that Rasputin like quality that they're never dead even after you think you've killed them.
-What the heck has happened to Georgia? Losing to Miss. State? I don't know anything about the situation on the ground in Athens, but from the outside it doesn't look good for Mark Richt -- losing record this year, losing ground in the rivalry with Florida, a new AD, and a gaggle of legal troubles for this players. His only saving grace might be that Tennessee might be worse, and the luster is coming off Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech a little bit.
-Speaking of the Vols, you gotta feel a little for UAB, miss five field goals in regulation and lose in 2OT to Tennessee. Ouch!
-I couldn't help but think in the wake of UCLA's somewhat shocking demolition of Texas that it was the Bruin's 66-3 win in Austin that effectively ended the last Longhorn coach's tenure. I don't think Mack Brown is going anywhere anytime soon, but maybe they shouldn't invite UCLA to town anymore.
-I watched a little bit of the Temple / PSU game. It's kinda a shame that the Big East kicked Temple out, since I think that if Al Golden stays there, they will outgrow the MAC real fast. If they are seriously considering adding Villanova, they should first bring Temple back. Of course, Golden's a Penn State alum, so he might be on their short list if/when Paterno finally hangs them up / kicks the bucket (whichever comes first).
-Odd Stat of the week: Every touchdown scored in Florida's 41-14 win over Kentucky was scored by #8 -- Florida's Trey Burton (who scored six touchdowns), Jeremy Brown (INT returned for a TD), and Kentucky's Chris Matthews (Two TD receptions) all wear number 8. I wonder what the odds are on three different players with the same number all scoring in the same game, let alone scoring nine touchdowns.
-Some more Golden rankings stuff later this week -- conference rankings and a look at a new rankings feature this year, looking at average points scored and allowed vs. the opponents averages.

Back to the Future

It's been a pretty obvious parallel to draw the last couple of years - stadium under construction, team under construction. Holes in new structure, holes in depth chart. Unpoured concrete, unfinished tackles. So maybe it's fitting then that on a day when they opened the new bigger Big House, we got to see a team that may finally be beginning to resemble the finished product that Rich Rodriguez envisioned when he first arrived here almost three years ago.

The offense we saw on Saturday reminds me of the old Michigan offense. Not the traditional pro set we had under Carr and Moeller, but the "three yards and a cloud of dust" offense of the mid and late 70s. An offense where the rushing attack is so precise and potent that the passing attack doesn't need to be overly complex to be successful. It relies heavily on the athleticism and decision making of the quarterback. On Saturday, Denard Robinson ran it to near perfection. His reads in the Zone read play were good, his passing was accurate and on time, and his knack for finding the right hole and hitting it at top speed was outstanding. It will be hard to top this game against a team that some suggested might be the best in the Big East.

Even with the workman like effort by the offense, it was perhaps the defense that was the most pleasantly surprising. It is not a stretch to say the last two years have been the worst defenses in Michigan history. a simply mediocre defense this year will be a huge improvement, and might be enough by itself to secure a bowl bid. and that's what we got on Saturday, a simply mediocre defense. There were some bad angles taken by safeties and bad reads by linebackers, but there were few of the crushing missed open field tackles that led to long touchdowns last year. There were no sacks, and the defensive line didn't beat blocks one on one, but there was enough pressure on the QB from linebackers to make the UConn QB uncomfortable. Most importantly, the defense got a key turnover at the most opportune time, something they hadn't done for the last two years. Is this a championship level defense? No. is UConn an offensive powerhouse? No. But there was enough positive play to suggest that maybe, just maybe the defense will be good enough to get us to the winning season we've been waiting for.

Other thoughts:
-I was hoping we see more kids play, especially on defense. I'd like to see what Marvin Robinson can do at Jordan Kovacs SS/Bandit position. I'd like to see more of Will Campbell, and hope he gets his act together soon. I'd like to see Stephen Hopkins take a turn at RB to see if he can fill the runaway beer truck role that Owen Schmitt manned at West Virginia. I was hoping to see Drew Dileo at punt returner, especially after Jeremy Gallon dropped his first punt (HOLD ONTO THE DAMN BALL!)
-I'd like to see Tate Forcier stick around, just for emergency purposes, but after his disappearing act after the game, I won't be broken up if he transfers. The guys at MGoBlog, of course, were right on top of this story after the fact, talking to his dad. That interview sounded a lot like damage control, and given the family history of transfers not working out, I would guess his dad wants him to stick around. But it's clear that he's not happy, and it will be hard to convince a 20 year old kid who's been raised all his life to be a star quarterback that he should be content to be a backup with little chance to play meaningful snaps unless someone gets hurt.
-Outside of the kick block, special teams were pretty mediocre. Although I think the wind played a big factor, kicking will be an adventure all season.
- You could see David Brandon's influence all around the stadium on Saturday: The band was miked up and you could actually hear them; there was no piped in music, save for one snippet of Journey's "Don't Stop Believing" at a quarter break; they announced a Slippery Rock score for the first time since the early to mid 80s (a report from some younger friends was that the students were very confused by that score and the cheers that it was met with); the band's halftime show was a salute to The Blues Brothers, complete with formations that actually matched the music (a Dodge with moving wheels, a hat and sunglasses). It could have been a show from the mid 80s. Hopefully we'll see more shows like that and less salutes to opera or boy bands like we had last year. I wonder if the annual salute to the school of animal husbandry will return.
-Some extra added food options this year look really yummy. We saw one stand selling roasted corn on the cob. Will definitely have to try that out.
-Overall a pleasant day at the corner of Stadium and Main. We now have six seats together, so my son came and brought his best friend with him (see the picture at the top of the blog). They had a grand time and even paid attention to the game most of the time. I'm not sure this game changes the overall season outlook - the goal is still to get to a bowl game, anything more is gravy.

OSU thoughts and season wrap-up

It could have been a lot worse. The defense played hard, and Tressel's conservatism played right into Michigan's hands, so despite a gaggle of turnovers, the final score looked somewhat respectable.
-There's no doubt that Tressel is a great coach, especially when it comes to defense and special teams. But much like Lloyd Carr, he couldn't game plan his way out of a paper bag. Our defense has glaring weaknesses at LB and at safety and every non-MAC team has taken advantage of them until OSU. But instead of spreading us out, running zone read plays and short out passes and play action passes, i.e. things that would have forced our LBs and DBs to make decisions and plays in space, Sweatervest decided to run primarily out of an I formation, straight up blocking, that allowed our D-line to get penetration. Now perhaps Tressel saw no reason to do anything on offense since he knew his defense would probably out score us, but I think that if you constantly ask your offense to do the bare minimum, when you really need them to do something, they won't produce. It's what has happened to them against USC and SEC team recently, and it might happen in the Rose Bowl if they have to try and outscore Oregon.
-Pryor is a great athlete, but he has horrible QB mechanics. He's their version of Denard Robinson, but bigger and probably faster. Tressel should look to hire an NFL QB coach to try and develop his pocket passing.
-As much as the Forcier interceptions killed us, I don't think we should try and shut him down next year. His strength is his ability to pull something out of his ass when he's scrambling, I don't want him to lose that.
-There were as many OSU fans at the game as I've ever seen. That's to be expected with the season we've had. With the proliferation of ticket websites, making it easier to sell or buy tickets to any game, I would expect similar situations in the future if we don't turn it around.
-Of all the seniors who played their last game on Saturday, perhaps the thing I'll miss the most is the press box. The next time we see Michigan on TV, it will be at a different camera angle.

-Despite the disappointing end to the season, I think it's pretty clear the Rich Rod isn't going to be fired anytime soon. Anyone who suggest otherwise is either an idiot or in sports talk radio (or more likely, both). We gave Tommy Amaker six years, there's no way, considering his considerable buyout that we fire Rich Rod anytime before the end of the 2011 season.
-Whether he should be fired or not is a different question. I don't think he should be, but I understand the point of those who suggest he should be. I think two years is not enough time to give a coach, and I think there are still considerable holes in the roster that would not be helped by a coaching change. But I also think that given the way the first two years have gone, it's not terribly likely that Rich Rod will last much beyond 2011. There aren't many cases in recent history of a coach doing as poorly in his first two years as Rich Rod has done and winning big in his third or fourth year.
-Although I think Rich Rod should stay, I wouldn't mind if our LB coach Jay Hobson were to leave. He was responsible of inside LBs and both of our veterans in those positions, Ezeh and Mouton seemed to have regressed this year.

Missed Opportunities

I must admit that when it happened, I was livid. How could you not put the golden child, Tate Forcier, back in the game? After all, hadn't he already led three fourth quarter drives to win or tie games this year? We only had 1:40 on the clock, no timeouts, and we had to go about 60 yards to get into reasonable field goal range. Surely this was the perfect setup for more heroics.
But no, Denard Robinson came back out on the field. Maybe Tate was injured, we had seen him shaking his hand like he had hit it on something earlier in the quarter. But we saw him start to run on the field, as if to say, "I'm ready to go" only to be told to sit down by Rich Rod. This was clearly a decision by Rich Rod to go with Robinson.

After the game, I stewed for a while, thinking about the missed opportunity to steal a game on the road against a top ten team when you commit five turnovers. As disappointed as I was that the game slipped away, I began to mellow a bit, thinking about how good the team had played in certain segments, and realizing that we were a nine point dog in this game and nearly won it.

As I poked around on various message boards, and saw discussions of the game, and of Rich Rod's decision to bench Forcier, I came across a comparison that seem particularly apt to me.
Late in the Big Ten basketball season, with the Michigan hoops fighting for their first NCAA bid in ten years, Michigan was playing on the road against a poor Iowa team. With tough games still to play against Purdue and Minnesota, most people felt this was a must win for our tournament chances. After blowing a large lead late, John Beilein benched his best player, Manny Harris for the overtime period, and we ended up loosing. At the time, many people were upset that the loss had cost us our chance at an NCAA bid. But Manny came out fired up a few days later and we beat Purdue, and then beat Minnesota, and he was the best player on the court in our big dance win against Clemson. In the end, Beilein's decision to bench Manny against Iowa probably cost us that game, but might have been the move that saved our season. We can only hope that Rich Rod's bizarre decision to bench Forcier will have the same consequences.

Bullets:
-Big picture, I'm very pleased with where we are. A year after finishing 3-9 (and being somewhat lucky to get one of those wins), we are 4-2 with two narrow losses, and most of our remaining tough games at home. 8-4 is a real possibility now, and that would be a huge one year improvement
-Boy did our line play look great. I think we beat Iowa on both sides of the ball, and they were supposed to have the best D-line in the league outside of Columbus.
-I love seeing Brandon Minor run downhill. We really need to get him more carries against the big boys. I would love to see him repeat the success he had in the first half against PSU last year against the Knitknees this year.
-I was very impressed with Denard Robinson in the next to the last drive. Everyone in the stadium knew he was going to run the ball, and they still couldn't stop him. I wish he had come in the game earlier. I hope he gets significant snaps in the scrimmage against Delaware State.
-Jordan Kovacs has turned into a serviceable safety. Now if we could only bring Mike Williams along, we might be ok (meaning average) in the secondary.
-Woolfolk also look good. I would guess he's our starting CB the rest of the year, regardless of what happens with Cissoko's suspension.
-Other than Zoltan, our special teams were quite poor. Why can't we find a decent punt returner. Isn't that something that slot ninjas are supposed to be good at?
-If I were the Illinois AD, I'd start raising money for Ron Zook's buyout and would get Brian Kelly on speed dial. The Illini look like they've quit on Zook.
-The Big Ten looks like OSU's to lose. Iowa is good, but not good enough to win in Columbus. While the Buckeyes might trip up once, I don't see them losing twice, and no one else in the league is good enough to run the table. I would put Iowa, PSU, and Wisconsin in the group behind OSU, with Michigan, MSU, and maybe Minnesota a step lower than them.
-Has anybody else in the country played as many exciting games as Washington? (Perhaps us)
-The post game interview with Bobby Bowden was painful to watch. They asked him what went wrong with the game, why they lost, and he couldn't offer much more than cliches. It's pretty clear that he doesn't have the slightest clue what's going on out there. I don't envy the FSU fans or decision makers. It's pretty hard to deal with the fact that the person that basically created your program is now like an anchor around its ankle.

Lose Yourself

There are points during the long off-season where you find yourself daydreaming about the upcoming season, and how great it could be. There are times during the two week prelude to the season when you hear message board reports about how some young phenom is tearing it up in practice and is poised for a breakout year. But you stop yourself from daydreaming too much because you don't want to get your expectations too high. And you remind yourself that those reports have often been wrong in the past.

So when Tate Forcier missed a wide open Kevin Koger streaking down the western sideline on third down with just over 3 minutes to go I saw the young quarterback bend down with his hands on his helmet and thought, if only briefly, that they gave it a good go, and perhaps two wins in the first two games was too much to expect after the trainwreck that was last season. I half expected my friend of 20 years who sits next to me at games to remark, "Well, at least they'll probably be 3-1 when the head to East Lansing"

But thanks to some curious playcalling from Jabba the Weis, the great improvisational skills of our young quarterback, and some nifty receiving from our senior possession receiver and a career backup, what had been a good game turned into an all-time classic. In the process, the afternoon exceeded anything I had dared to imagine back when all anyone wanted to talk about was the arrest of an ex-quarterback or the number of practice hours the team spent in a week. As I rewatch the game (in HD, no less), the painful memories of last year are already starting to fade. If we have too many more of games like today or last week, I think I'll forget about last year altogether.

When the season started, I think most people had Michigan pegged between 5-7 and 7-5. I think those predictions might need to be revised. With the two toughest teams remaining on the schedule (OSU and PSU) coming into AA, and road trips to MSU, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin not looking as tough as they did at the start of the season, an 8 or 9 win season doesn't look out of the question, and there is a chance, a small chance, that this season could really be a special one.

Bullet Points:
-Tate Forcier is one of the three best QBs in the Big Ten, and might even be better. We haven't had a QB that could just make shit up like that since Jim Harbaugh. We've had big strong guys who could throw it thru a brick wall, but no one that you would want to see outside of the pocket.
-Hello Daryl Stonum. He had kinda a tough year last year, getting into some trouble off the field, and not showing much on the field. There were reports in camp that he was dropping a lot of balls. With top wideout Junior Hemingway out this week, we really needed Stonum to step up, and boy did he ever. His kickoff return was a thing of beauty, and he did a great job running his routes, even when he didn't get the ball. I look forward to seeing him grow this year.
-Brandon Minor is clearly our #1 tailback. His bruising style is a perfect counterpart to the quickness of our other skill positions.
-This team still has a lot of holes in it. Obviously we need more depth in the defensive secondary, we played a 5-10, 190 pound walkon redshirt freshman at safety for most of the second half. We need some size in the DL and LB, we got pushed around a little up front. Our offensive line still has improving to do. But you can really begin to see how this team is going to look when it is ready to compete with the best teams in the conference and the country. The gap between us and the 2 teams at the top of the conference doesn't look as big as it did 2 weeks ago.
- The piped in music is growing on me. I thought it was much more effectively used this week. The White Strips tune is great for sporting events (as any good European soccer fan already knows), and I like the Eminem tune as well. I like the fact that there are local connections with both artists. Besides, with the new acoustics, we can't hear the band at all anyway, so they might as well play something.
-The Notre Dame team is improved from last year. They have a lot of offensive fire power, and they do a fairly good job of using it. Their defense needs a lot of work, but I don't know if there are a lot of teams on their schedule, outside of USC, that can slow them down or take advantage of their defense.
-Michael Floyd is the best receiver we'll play all year. I hope his family starts looking for an agent, so he can get ready for the NFL draft in the spring.
-Jimmy Clausen has a big arm, but no poise. Four different times in the game he called timeout in the middle of a quarter, for no reason other than he didn't like what the defense looked like. I don't think he could improvise if his life depended on it.
-Still I can't help but think that there is a limit on how successful they can be with Mr. Schematic Advantage there. He's a great recruiter, but he couldn't teach his way out of a paper bag, and there are stories after stories of him pissing off former players with his arrogance and rudeness. He can't afford to lose too many more games this year.
-In other games, I think Jim Tressel is wasting Terrell Pryor's considerable talents by trying to make him a pro style QB. Put him in our system, or Florida's, or Texas', or anyplace where they'd let him use his speed and his running ability on a more regular basis, and people would be calling him the new Tebow. USC was ripe for the picking Saturday evening, and OSU let them off the hook because they couldn't take advantage of a young, albeit very talented, USC defense in a hostile environment. They were just too conservative on offense until it was too late.
-As I was watching that game, I couldn't help thinking as I saw them in a Two TE, one receiver set, "Why don't they spread them out, so that they can get more running lanes" Rich Rod's offense has gotten to me.
-After all the crap we heard over the summer in the local media about how MSU had passed Michigan and was taking over the state in recruiting, I couldn't help but feel a little schadenfreude in the Spartans' loss to Central Michigan. Mark Dantonio has taken every opportunity to take cheap shots at us in the media the last two years, so I didn't feel too much sympathy for him as I saw him in a post game interview looking like someone had just run over his dog. Although I think he is better than John L Smith, his record is now only three games better than Smith at the same point in his tenure, and State has four very losable games coming up, @ ND, @ Wisc, Michigan, and @ Illinois. Things could get real ugly in a hurry for Lt. Dan.

Blog: Reactivate

With the Big Ten Media Days starting this afternoon, it's time to awake the blog from its off-season hibernation and start to gear up for the impending football season. In the next few days / weeks leading up to the season, we have a while you were away post summarizing off-season doings, some discussion of adjustments I'm going to make to my version of the Golden rankings, overview-type previews of assorted teams on Michigan's schedule, along with some general thoughts about the outlook for different BCS conferences, some random musings on future schedules, and perhaps another installment of The List.

For now, a hype video made from our spring game, which made the rounds at some point this summer and features the new hope for the offense, 18-year old Tate Forcier. (HT: The Wolverine Blog)