Who needs defense?

Lon Horwedl / annarbor.com


One of the reasons I enjoy having football season tickets is that even in the midst of disappointing seasons you get these moments and games that are pure magic. In the middle of our first rose bowl less season in four years, 1979, we got Wangler to Carter, the greatest play in the first 100 years of Michigan football. In the middle of the Year of Infinite Pain, 2005, we got Manningham's dagger in the heart of Penn State. Even the awful 3-9 2008 campaign produced a comeback for the ages against Wisconsin.
That's what saturday's game was. Put aside all the disappointment from the last three games, all the concerns about the defense, all the speculation of will he stay? or will he go? and just enjoy an entertaining game. It was interesting that we heard little if any booing during the game. Sure there were no shortage of sarcastic comments or cheers, including a hearty round of "Save your job, Save your job" during the first overtime, but there wasn't the booing or "We want Harbaugh" chants we heard at the iowa game. Maybe the first play TD strike to Roundtree placated the fans a little. Or maybe we've just moved past the anger and depression stages of grieving for our defense and moved on to acceptance. Illinois just scored on a 60 yard run. So what? We know our defense sucks, when's the offense coming back out on the field?
Long ago, when I was much younger and was particularly down that my plans in life didn't seem to be working out, a good friend told me, "If you can't figure out a plan for life, just figure out a plan for today." So we take this approach going forward - the big picture will take care of itself, we will focus on each game, trying to get as much enjoyment out of the four(!) remaining Michigan football games as we can and worry about the big picture items later.
Other thoughts:
-Any doubts the last three games might have created about this offense were emphatically erased by this game. The Illini were the #15 defense in the country and hadn't given up more than 26 points in any game this year, despite playing three top ten teams, Missouri, OSU, and MSU. We got that in a half. The hadn't given up more than 390 yards in any one game this year, we got 386 in the first half. There is no doubt that as long as Rich Rod stays here, we will have one of the best offenses in the country.
-Despite the massive numbers, I acutally thought there were signs of progress on defense. Craig Roh is much better as a Dlineman than a LB. Courtney Avery palyed well, and made a good open field tackle on a player that was very similar to the one against Iowa that he missed and allowed them to get their last field goal. Finally, I think Cam Gordon is a better fit at the Spur position than at safety because of his size.
-I loved the reverse on the kickoff but don't understand why Jeremy Gallon is allowed to continue to return kicks after he fumbles one. I also think that we should be onside kicking every once an a while. With our defense, the opposition can (and will) score from almost anywhere. Why not take a chance on getting the ball back? If they are going to bring in new defensive coaches, they should consider finding one or two who have experience coaching special teams.
-I hope Tate Forcier realizes how important a good backup QB is in this offense. At the start of the year, all the buzz was about Denard and how he was a one man offense. In this game (and to a lesser extent the Iowa game), Tate showed that this offense is lethal no matter who is pulling the trigger. If he comes back next year, we will have the best QB situation in the country.
-Nice to see Michael Shaw back at something approaching 100%. Vincent Smith ran a lot better because he didn't have to shoulder all (or most) of the load.
-The receivers had a very nice game (obviously). We don't have that one dominant reciever that we had in the past with Braylon or Manningham, but we might have as much depth there as we've had in a long long time.
-Hurry back Carl Grapentine. The substitute PA guy was awful.
-I think it's safe to cross Arizona off the list of teams that could possibly beat Oregon. They were dominated by Stanford and have to travel to Eugene in three weeks. After a game at Cal, who just won their first road game of the year at Washington State, this weekend, they get a bye, Arizona at home, and then must travel to Corvallis to play Oregon State. Interestingly enough, the Beavers have already played (and lost to) TCU and Boise State. The season ending tilt against the Nike Ducks might be the last chance those two teams have to reach the championship game.
-Another classic game in Baton Rouge. it's too bad they won't get a chance to play in the SEC championship game, because I think they might be the best team in the league.

Defense?!? We don't need no stinkin' defense!

I was lucky on Saturday in that I didn't watch most of our game in Bloomington live. Due to my son's soccer game starting at 3:45, I got a few updates during the first half, saw a little bit of the start of the second half at home, and then watched the final drive at a Pizza Hut surrounded by a bunch of hungry eight year-olds. Of course I recorded the game and was able to watch it later on in the evening. I could fast forward through much of the game when we were on defense. The funny thing is that it took me longer to fast forward through the Hoosiers 98 offensive plays than it did to watch Michigan's offensive plays twice.

The most interesting thing about the game, was that I think both coaching staffs came into the game thinking they couldn't stop the other team on offense. Indiana decided that they were going to be aggressive on defense, hoping to get some big negative plays and or turnovers. They slanted their d-line a lot, had their linebackers key on Denard, and occasionally bringing a safety up to the line. That resulted in a lot of single coverage on wide receivers, and no deep run support, which led to a lot of long plays on Michigan's part. The Michigan coaches, on the other hand, decided to play soft coverage (for the most part), hoping that by forcing the Hoosiers to dink and dunk their way down the field, they would eventually make a mistake. For the most part, Indiana did not make mistakes and held the ball for an impossibly long time. In the end, neither defense did anything to suggest that they will be anything other than putrid this year.

In that sense, I think this game probably reinforced most people's ideas of what Michigan's team will be this year. Those that were convinced that this year is just like last year will point to the 500 yards passing allowed against a traditional doormat of the league and proclaim that the tougher teams in the league will run up the score. Those that see this as a new year point to a second straight road win and the continual video-game like stats of Denard Robinson as proof that even when our defense is the dregs, we can still outscore anyone. I think that both viewpoints are valid. This is probably the worst defense in the big ten, and despite its youth, I'm not sure it will make any quantum leaps this year. At the same time there's a real chance that this is the best offense in the league. Everyone talks about Denard's obvious abilities, but the offensive line is monster, the TEs are good blockers, and the receiving corps might be the best in the league, both in receiving and in blocking. What this all means is that we are likely to see more shootout, last team with the ball wins type games.

Other random thoughts:
-One thing that will help our defense is the inherent conservatism in a lot of coaches in the league--Tressel, Ferentz, Paterno, and to a lesser extent Lt. Dan and the Madison Meathead are all "run or die trying" coaches. Our run defense is not stellar by any stretch of the imagination, but our pass defense is so porus that any time spent trying to establish the run is a wasted opportunity to beat our corners deep, or catch one of our linebackers trying to cover a TE. One or two wasted opportunities might be all our offense needs to win a game.
-I don't think the all-out blitzing, throw the kitchen sink at them approach will work with this defense, but I would like to see us disguise our coverages or vary things up a little bit. Playing 20 yards off the receivers every play seems like its asking to get picked apart. Throw in an occasional four man line, or a safety blitz. I noticed they played Mike Martin at DE a little against Indiana. Maybe moving him around some more, or bringing in other big bodies (Patterson, Will Campbell) on run downs will help against the caveman offenses.
-Having Brandon Herron back this week will help the pass rush, because it will allow us to move Craig Roh to his more natural position, DE on passing downs. It will also be good to get Carvin Johnson back, because I think he may be a little more physical than Thomas Gordon, although Gordan hasn't played that badly
- I don't know why LSU fans are complaining about Les Miles. They all want to go back to the days when they had a handsome, well dressed coach who always seemed to be in full control. But who's to say that if they got rid of Miles they wouldn't end up with another coach like the guy who came before the guy they're all pinning for. Maybe the norm for LSU coaches is not Nick Saban, but rather Gerry Dinardo. At least Les keeps the games interesting, and his press conferences are certainly more entertaining that anything Dinardo does on the Big Ten network.
-Lane Kiffin is an idiot. Up two with Washington driving, already in FG range with two minutes left, he decides not to use any of his three timeouts to give his offense time to respond, instead choosing to use two of them to ice the Washington kicker Eric Folk (who beat SC last year with a late FG) before his 32 yard attempt. Rats are gonna start jumping off that ship soon, if they haven't already.
-Gambler's Lament-Another exhibit why gambling on college sports is bad for your health was the Northwestern/Minnesota game. In our weekly College Pick'em pool (no money, just bragging rights), I had the Wildcats -5.5 @ Minnesota. Late in the game, with Minnesota leading 28-20, i flipped over to another game, figuring I was gonna lose this one. I flipped back a few minutes later to find that not only had Northwestern scored a TD, they'd missed the two point conversion, gotten the ball back and kicked a field goal. Now they were leading 29-28 and Minnesota had the ball with under a minute left. This game was toast for me, NU wasn't going to cover. But with just over 30 seconds left, with no timeouts left, Minnesota's QB threw it right to a Northwestern LB in the flat who broke into the clear and headed toward a pick six. Just about the time I jumped out of my seat, excited that I might actually get this pick right, the Wildcat linebacker realized where he was, realized that they didn't need to score and slide to the ground at about the 30. Good thing I didn't have any money on the game, or I might have been really pissed.
-More Golden rankings stuff later this week, and maybe if I find the time a post about the upcoming game with little brother.

Much Better

Now that's the way games against over matched opponents are supposed to go: Offensive excellence early and often, defense getting enough stops and turnovers to keep the game out of reach, and lots of young players getting their first substantial action on both sides of the ball. In the long run this game probably means about as much as last week's game -- its a win, read more into the game at your own peril -- but it is certainly funner to discuss and to relive, so here goes:
-The media seems to be overplaying the Denard injury just a little bit. It seemed fairly clear that he was alright, based on the way he was jumping around on the sideline. I still don't get the idea that he would be any more prone to injury as a QB running the ball than a running back carrying the ball.
-Yes, patsy opponent and all, but Tate Forcier looked good. The ovation he got when he took the field was heartwarming, and his comments after the game were encouraging. I know I was ready to write him off after his comments in the immediate aftermath of the UConn win, but his subsequent walk back of those comments and behavior since then show that maybe, just maybe, he's grown up a little bit through this whole ordeal.
-Gardner also looked good, but I think if Denard were to go down for any period of time, we'd be better off with Tate at the helm, even though he doesn't bring Devin's overall athleticism. I think Tate just brings some better reads and more accuracy. Either way, we have some of the better QB backups in the country.
-I liked the new punt formation, with three returners back, Odoms, Gallon, and Dileo, to combat the rugby style roll punts from the spread formation that a lot of teams are running these days. The extra returners allowed us to return a few punts that previously had ended up bouncing 20 yards, or had turned into turnovers when Gallon tried to dive after the ball.
-Not a bad first career carry by Fitz Toussaint, huh? I'd worry more about him being caught from behind if he weren't wearing a knee brace.
-I thought the freshman Ray Vinopal showed a good nose for the ball on his late interception. Now if we could just put a few pounds on him so he doesn't cough the ball up after his interception.

Thoughts from other games:
-I wonder if Alabama's come from behind win in Arkansas was just the first of many such games for the defending champs this year. With the way their schedule is set up, with many teams getting bye weeks before they play them, they're gonna get everyone's best shot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall behind against Florida, LSU, South Carolina, or Auburn. But they just seem to have that Rasputin like quality that they're never dead even after you think you've killed them.
-What the heck has happened to Georgia? Losing to Miss. State? I don't know anything about the situation on the ground in Athens, but from the outside it doesn't look good for Mark Richt -- losing record this year, losing ground in the rivalry with Florida, a new AD, and a gaggle of legal troubles for this players. His only saving grace might be that Tennessee might be worse, and the luster is coming off Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech a little bit.
-Speaking of the Vols, you gotta feel a little for UAB, miss five field goals in regulation and lose in 2OT to Tennessee. Ouch!
-I couldn't help but think in the wake of UCLA's somewhat shocking demolition of Texas that it was the Bruin's 66-3 win in Austin that effectively ended the last Longhorn coach's tenure. I don't think Mack Brown is going anywhere anytime soon, but maybe they shouldn't invite UCLA to town anymore.
-I watched a little bit of the Temple / PSU game. It's kinda a shame that the Big East kicked Temple out, since I think that if Al Golden stays there, they will outgrow the MAC real fast. If they are seriously considering adding Villanova, they should first bring Temple back. Of course, Golden's a Penn State alum, so he might be on their short list if/when Paterno finally hangs them up / kicks the bucket (whichever comes first).
-Odd Stat of the week: Every touchdown scored in Florida's 41-14 win over Kentucky was scored by #8 -- Florida's Trey Burton (who scored six touchdowns), Jeremy Brown (INT returned for a TD), and Kentucky's Chris Matthews (Two TD receptions) all wear number 8. I wonder what the odds are on three different players with the same number all scoring in the same game, let alone scoring nine touchdowns.
-Some more Golden rankings stuff later this week -- conference rankings and a look at a new rankings feature this year, looking at average points scored and allowed vs. the opponents averages.

Warp speed ahead!

Photo - Michigan Daily

As I watched the end of the Boise State - Virginia Tech game on Labor Day night it occurred to me that the difference between the two minute offenses of Boise State and Virginia Tech embodies the struggles that many long-time Michigan fans are having in accepting the new Michigan offense. For the longest time, we had prototypical pro-style quarterbacks who like Boise's Kellen Moore could surgically take apart any defense with his passing even when everyone knew they had to pass. Now with a system that emphasizes a quarterback's running skills and athleticism more than his passing skills, I think many Michigan fans fear that we will be unable to run an effective two minute offense, just as Virginia Tech's Tyrod Taylor was unable to do at the end of the Labor Day game.

Among the multitude of amazing things Denard Robinson did on Saturday perhaps the most significant thing was to show those Michigan fans still uncomfortable with the new offense that just because he is not 6-4 with feet of clay doesn't mean he can't deliver in crunch time when everyone knows he needs to pass the ball. With the game on the line and 75 yards away from pay dirt, he went 5-6 for 55 yards and added 17 yards rushing with a fourth and one conversion and a touchdown rushing. Any doubting that he can be a complete quarterback is either not paying attention or is looking for reasons to complain.

The offense still has things to work on: the running backs have not been productive, the down field passing is inconsistent, and the propensity for bad penalties is gonna cost them at some point. Although last year taught us not to get to far ahead of ourselves, I think it is safe to say that baring some key injuries, this offense will be fairly productive.

The Defense? We won. Can't say too much more than that. They did appear to limit the ND rushing attack a little bit, but didn't get much pressure on the ND QBs and had some significant lapses in coverage. Cam Gordon took a couple of bad angles that led to two long ND touchdowns. Missed tackles were numerous, and the two inside LBs are about 50/50 to make the right read. We don't really know how good the ND offense is, but it's probably safe to say that the defense still has a long way to go to get to adequate. We won't discuss the special teams.

So big picture, where are we? One game closer to the seven wins we need to go bowling. I'd like to say this is better than a 7-5 team, but after last year, we know things can go south really quickly when the team has serious depth issues. Looking at the schedule, based on games played so far, there appears to be four teams that we would seem to be better than: UMass, Purdue, Bowling Green, & Illinois, five teams we don't have enough evidence to judge yet based on over matched opponents: Iowa, MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin, & Penn State (a loss @ Alabama doesn't prove anything major), and one team, Ohio State that appears clearly better than us. If I had to guess now, based on last year, Iowa and Wisconsin will join OSU in that last group, and Indiana will join the first group.

Some other thoughts:
-I'm sure you'll hear from negative nancies in the media and opposing fans how Denard won't survive the season carrying the ball 30 times a game and Michigan's offense will suffer if he goes down. While there is some truth in that, it's no more true for us than it is for any other team. Where would OSU be if Pryor went down? How's Florida doing so far without Tebow? Is a QB that carries the ball more likely to get injured than a RB who carries that much? I think that part of the negative reaction towards the amount of carries Denard gets has to do with that uncomfortableness with the offense we discussed above.
-I'm sure he got approval of the team doctors, but I wonder if Brian Kelly's decision to put Dayne Crist back in the game was a sound one. Crist's vision problems would seem to suggest a potentially serious concussion or head injury that would keep him out of the whole game. I'd hate to think that the decision to put him in was motivated by the horrible play of his backups, and you just hope that there are no lingering issues for Crist.
-Didn't see much of any of the other big ten games to draw many conclusions, other than the large white stripe on the MSU helmets looked bad and I wished we played Minnesota this year. What the heck Gophers? At least when we lost to an FCS team, we lost to the three time defending champs, not a .500 team that's only been playing Division one for four years.
-Bad day for the MAC. They went 2-5 in non conference play with two losses to FCS teams (Akron to Gardner Webb, Ball State to Liberty). The conference should really consider an en masse move to FCS.
-Almost equally bad day for the ACC, with losses to an FCS team (see below), a poor Kansas team, and big losses in marquee games by Miami and Florida State. They look to be a one bid league in terms of the BCS, yet again.
-USC looked fairly average. Pac Ten will be decided Oct 2 when Stanford visits Oregon. The amount of empty seats in Neyland Stadium midway through the fourth quarter was quite impressive.
-Biggest loser this week? Probably Boise State, whose "big" win over Virginia Tech became virtually worthless when the Hokies fell to FCS "power" James Madison. I can see another 12-0 season ending in a random BCS bowl game (but not "the" game) against TCU.
-The news on Friday that FCS power Villanova has been asked to join the Big East in football confirms what many have said for years -- the Big East doesn't deserve a BCS bid. Villanova currently plays in a 12,000 seat stadium, probably draws less per game than two other Philly area teams (Penn and Temple), and probably falls about ten spots down in the sports consciousness of the typical Philly fan. I know that UConn made a similar jump a decade ago, but they weren't really competing with anything else other than Husky basketball.
-On a final note, one of the all time greatest Wolverines, Ron Kramer, passed away on Saturday. I'd like to think he spent the afternoon watching the game with Bo, Yost, & Bob Ufer. Godspeed, # 87.

Back to the Future

It's been a pretty obvious parallel to draw the last couple of years - stadium under construction, team under construction. Holes in new structure, holes in depth chart. Unpoured concrete, unfinished tackles. So maybe it's fitting then that on a day when they opened the new bigger Big House, we got to see a team that may finally be beginning to resemble the finished product that Rich Rodriguez envisioned when he first arrived here almost three years ago.

The offense we saw on Saturday reminds me of the old Michigan offense. Not the traditional pro set we had under Carr and Moeller, but the "three yards and a cloud of dust" offense of the mid and late 70s. An offense where the rushing attack is so precise and potent that the passing attack doesn't need to be overly complex to be successful. It relies heavily on the athleticism and decision making of the quarterback. On Saturday, Denard Robinson ran it to near perfection. His reads in the Zone read play were good, his passing was accurate and on time, and his knack for finding the right hole and hitting it at top speed was outstanding. It will be hard to top this game against a team that some suggested might be the best in the Big East.

Even with the workman like effort by the offense, it was perhaps the defense that was the most pleasantly surprising. It is not a stretch to say the last two years have been the worst defenses in Michigan history. a simply mediocre defense this year will be a huge improvement, and might be enough by itself to secure a bowl bid. and that's what we got on Saturday, a simply mediocre defense. There were some bad angles taken by safeties and bad reads by linebackers, but there were few of the crushing missed open field tackles that led to long touchdowns last year. There were no sacks, and the defensive line didn't beat blocks one on one, but there was enough pressure on the QB from linebackers to make the UConn QB uncomfortable. Most importantly, the defense got a key turnover at the most opportune time, something they hadn't done for the last two years. Is this a championship level defense? No. is UConn an offensive powerhouse? No. But there was enough positive play to suggest that maybe, just maybe the defense will be good enough to get us to the winning season we've been waiting for.

Other thoughts:
-I was hoping we see more kids play, especially on defense. I'd like to see what Marvin Robinson can do at Jordan Kovacs SS/Bandit position. I'd like to see more of Will Campbell, and hope he gets his act together soon. I'd like to see Stephen Hopkins take a turn at RB to see if he can fill the runaway beer truck role that Owen Schmitt manned at West Virginia. I was hoping to see Drew Dileo at punt returner, especially after Jeremy Gallon dropped his first punt (HOLD ONTO THE DAMN BALL!)
-I'd like to see Tate Forcier stick around, just for emergency purposes, but after his disappearing act after the game, I won't be broken up if he transfers. The guys at MGoBlog, of course, were right on top of this story after the fact, talking to his dad. That interview sounded a lot like damage control, and given the family history of transfers not working out, I would guess his dad wants him to stick around. But it's clear that he's not happy, and it will be hard to convince a 20 year old kid who's been raised all his life to be a star quarterback that he should be content to be a backup with little chance to play meaningful snaps unless someone gets hurt.
-Outside of the kick block, special teams were pretty mediocre. Although I think the wind played a big factor, kicking will be an adventure all season.
- You could see David Brandon's influence all around the stadium on Saturday: The band was miked up and you could actually hear them; there was no piped in music, save for one snippet of Journey's "Don't Stop Believing" at a quarter break; they announced a Slippery Rock score for the first time since the early to mid 80s (a report from some younger friends was that the students were very confused by that score and the cheers that it was met with); the band's halftime show was a salute to The Blues Brothers, complete with formations that actually matched the music (a Dodge with moving wheels, a hat and sunglasses). It could have been a show from the mid 80s. Hopefully we'll see more shows like that and less salutes to opera or boy bands like we had last year. I wonder if the annual salute to the school of animal husbandry will return.
-Some extra added food options this year look really yummy. We saw one stand selling roasted corn on the cob. Will definitely have to try that out.
-Overall a pleasant day at the corner of Stadium and Main. We now have six seats together, so my son came and brought his best friend with him (see the picture at the top of the blog). They had a grand time and even paid attention to the game most of the time. I'm not sure this game changes the overall season outlook - the goal is still to get to a bowl game, anything more is gravy.