Bye Week This and That

In no particular order:
-Raise your hand if you wrote down Missouri, Oregon, Auburn and Michigan State at the start of the year as the last remaining unbeatens from the BCS conference. Liar.
-If there are any Rich Rod critics out there who still believe that his offense "won't work on a big stage", please note that three of those four teams run versions of his offense. That and the fact that Northwestern has run the offense successfully for ten years with less talent than just about anyone in the league. His problem ain't offense, it's everything else.
-I didn't see any of the MSU/Northwestern game, and only heard a few minutes of it on the radio as we were running errands, but it seems to me that road wins against winning conference teams where you come back from a 17-0 deficit are one of the requirements for a championship season.
-MSU can almost print their tickets for Pasadena. With Iowa's loss to Wisconsin, the spartans can afford to lose one of their remaining four games and still win the league title. Even if they lose to the Hawkeyes next week, they can still win the title if OSU beats Iowa, or if MSU, Iowa, & Wisconsin all finish with one loss. Even if you throw OSU in there and make it a four way tie, MSU still gets the Rose Bowl bid. All the Spartans have to do is beat Purdue and Minnesota at home and Penn State on the road and they get their first Rose Bowl in 23 years. It would take an epic collapse to miss out on a BCS bowl. While "epic collapse" and "Michigan State" have gone together like the Captain and Tenile for the better part of the last 40 years, that trend has reversed itself the last three years, as they have found a way to win important games down the stretch in each of Dantonio's first three years.
-Of course, if they win in Iowa City on saturday, they may miss the Rose Bowl by getting invited to the BCS championship game. They may get to play Boise State sooner than they planned.
-It seems that the best LSU QB changes from week to week, depending on who's starting, with the best player always being the guy who comes off the bench.
-What the hell has happened to Texas? I understand them having an off year (they've won ten or more since 2001, and haven't won fewer than 9 since 97), but losing to Iowa State? At home? Maybe Mack Brown has checked out, but you'd figure they have enough talent to overcome whatever is ailing them against Iowa State in Austin. They might be an underdog this week at home against Baylor. I'm pretty sure that's one of the signs of the apocalypse.
-The SEC East is starting to look like a typical year in the ACC, where all teams finish between 5-3 and 3-5 in conference. I wonder if Urban Meyer is regretting his decision to come back. Can they fire Mark Richt if he wins the SEC East at 5-3? I think Derek Dooley had more wins over SEC teams when he was at La Tech then he does at Tennessee.
-Like offense? Try watching the Cal Golden Bears. So far this year they've scored 52 against UC Davis, 52 on Colorado, given up 52 to Nevada, scored 35 on UCLA, given up 48 to USC, and just this week scored 50 on Arizona State. They're scoring 35 points per game and haven't played the two worst scoring defenses in the Pac Ten, Washington State and Oregon State. They haven't played the top two offenses, Oregon and Stanford, either.
-This weekend was about as bad as possible for us on a bye week. All five of the teams we've beaten this year were beaten this week, some in blowout fashion - IU by 30 to Illinois, Notre Dame by 18 to Navy, UConn shutout at Louisville, 26-0, BGSU losing by 24 to Kent State. Strength of schedule really doesn't matter too much to a team nowhere near the BCS, but the fact that Umass was beaten 39-13 by a 5-3 New Hampshire team really doesn't me a lot of confidence about the season going forward.

Stop me if you've heard this one before

Michigan comes out fired up, makes a defensive stop or two and takes the lead. Opponent comes right back down the field and scores and then continues to score throughout the second and third quarter. Michigan scores in the fourth quarter, but its too little to late. Michigan offense gains lots of yards, but is undone by turnovers. Michigan defense looks good in spots, but fails to make the stop at the key moments. Yes, this game looked a lot like the MSU game, and further reinforces what we have thought for several weeks now -- this team is not quite ready for prime time. The defense is still far too weak to be counted on to stop any team that is trying to score. Poor positioning, poor tackling, or just poor recognition - they simply don't have enough talent to be successful. The offense has also shown its youth in the last two weeks with costly turnovers, ridiculous penalties and an inability to make clutch plays. And special teams (other than punting) is still a weight on the offense.
Still, there were some positives:
-Tate's play (other than the two interceptions) was encouraging, and opens up the possibility of bringing him in future games as a change of pace when Denard is struggling.
-Kenny Demens looked better than horrible in place of Obi Ezeh. Hopefully his play against Iowa effectively ended Ezeh's playing time for the year.
-522 yards is a lot of yards to gain on a top ten defense. It does lend some credence that if (and that's a big if) turnovers can be cut down, this offense can duplicate some of their early season domination.
-The defensive and offensive lines played decently considering that David Molk and Mike Martin missed most of the game.
-The receivers looked good, especially in the fourth quarter. I think it's clear that most of them react better to Tate as a passer than Denard.
-Zoltan, Jr!
-Crowd was really into the game, especially during the mini-comeback in the fourth quarter. After the game, Iowa players reported troubles hearing audibles.

Of course, watching them shoot themselves in the foot for the second straight week has led to a lot of grumbling about Rich Rod and a lot of discussion about his future here. Towards the end of the game, there were chants of "We want Harbaugh" audible in the sections near us. Personally, I'm not ready to kick him to the curb just yet. There are still five games to be played, and there have been enough positive signs to suggest that a winning conference record is not far fetched. Unlikely, maybe, but not impossible. So I will reserve final judgement for at least two more weeks.

Thoughts on other games:
-The Wisconsin / OSU game was surprising so much because the Badgers, but rather for the way they won - by imposing their will on the Buckeyes and ramming the ball down their throat. I'm not surprised that the OSU offense stalled because they've looked rather pedestrian at times this year, but I didn't think Wisconsin would score over 30, when they only scored 20 against Arizona State at home.
-OSU's loss really helps MSU. If Iowa loses to Wisconsin this week, MSU has a one game margin over everyone in the conference, and can almost afford a lose in their toughest game left, in Iowa City. Of course, MSU has yet to play outside of the State of Michigan, and I wouldn't be surprised if Northwestern gives them a scare. Still, they are looking good for a New Year's day bowl, at least, if not a BCS bowl.
-I think we are heading for a TCU-Boise national championship game. The SEC undefeateds both have to play Alabama and each other. Oregon still has tough games with USC, Washington, Arizona and Oregon State. Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State all play each other, along with games against Nebraska and Texas. Finally, MSU still has to go to Iowa City. If Boise and TCU run the table, they will each be 37-1 in the last three years. Meanwhile, some other BCS bowl will feature a game that will be hyped as the "real" national championship game (Alabama/OSU in the Sugar, perhaps).

Additional thoughts on last weekend

In no particular order:

-I think we've seen the last of Carson Butler as a starter. I'm guessing he didn't play in the game due to discipline reasons arising from his getting tossed out of the game in South Bend. Kevin Koger's emergence towards the end of the game might be just what Rich Rod needs to bench Butler for good.
-Mike Martin is going to be a beast. I've always liked to watch the D-line with by binoculars during the game, and he was just destroying double teams of a fairly good oline.
-Finally saw a crossing route from Odoms in this game. I would like to see more of this. I think it backs the linebackers out a little bit and makes the bubble screen and the zone read that much more effective.
-Bielema must really be kicking himself for not playing Travis Beckum the entire game. Despite his gaffe on the 2-pt conversion (he was the one who lined up wrong causing the illegal man down field penalty), he brings a dimension to this offense that was sorely missing. I'm guessing if he plays, they score more than 19 points in the first half.
-I know a loss like this is tough to take, but I don't think it really changes the season outlook for the Badgers. I still think the make the Rose Bowl if they run the table, there is no way Michigan escapes without a couple of losses. I don't think they had a reasonable shot at a national title, even if they were undefeated. This loss only means something if they can't rebound from it this week.
-This is getting to be pattern for USC: Finish with the top recruiting class in the nation, with twice as many 5-star players as the next team. Have more players drafted into the NFL than anybody else. Start the year ranked number one, or very close to it. Win a couple early non-conference games in impressive fashion. Become the unanimous number one team. Lose to a shitty Pac 10 team that has no business coming within four touchdowns of you. Win out, and watch some SEC team beat OSU in the championship game, when everyone in the country knows you are the best team in the country. Finish the year by beating an over matched Big Ten team in the Rose Bowl. Have all the pundits proclaim you as the team to beat for the next year. Rinse, rather, repeat.
-I never really thought Nick Saban was a good as everyone made him out to be. His teams at MSU were only slightly over .500 before his last year, his five year record there was only a couple games better than the first five years of his predecessor. I think he got somewhat lucky at LSU in that he got to play a national championship game against the #3 team, instead of the #1 USC. He was awful with the Dolphins. I always thought he was a good coach, but not the walk on water type he was portrayed as. I must admit, I am impressed with what is doing at Alabama this year. We'll see if they can keep it up, but if they do win the SEC west, I take back the negative things I've said about him in the past, except the part about him being the Larry Brown of college football.
-I'm not buying this Penn State Spread HD thing. Wait until they play a defense with a pulse.
-I hope that the BYU/Utah, BYU/TCU, and Utah/TCU all get the national TV audiences they deserve.

Holy F@#$in' Sh#$!

As I walked my son to the gate at the north end of the stadium at halftime, I found myself wondering just how bad this season was going to get. Could they keep the bowl streak alive? Could they even get to four wins? As bad as the first half had been, nothing was guaranteed. I felt going into the season that this was going to be our toughest game outside of Columbus, and after seeing us get pushed around a little by a pretty ordinary Notre Dame rushing attack, I was intellectually prepared for this to be a loss. But emotionally, I wasn't ready for what I witnessed in the first half against the Badgers. 21 yards total yards. Negative passing yards. 3 dozen turnovers. No blocking from the Oline, bad throws by the quarterback. This was a nightmare. And what's worse, unlike the twin disasters that opened last year, there was no promise that it was going to get better.

So when my six year old son asked to go home with about a minute left in the half, I agreed to call his mom to come pick him up. I wanted to tell him to tough it out, that you never leave a game early. But he's still a new football fan, and I didn't want to sour him on the experience. When we met my wife at the gate amongst a rush of fans looking to head back to the tailgate, my wife asked me if I was going to stay. I'd like to say I chose to stay because I thought they had a snowball's chance in South Bend of making the game interesting. I'd like to say I stayed out of some sort of "never give up, never surrender" attitude. But the truth was, I simply didn't have anything better to do. I was resigned to our fate, and felt if I was going to be depressed about it, I'd rather do it with my dad, my friend, and 100 thousand other suffering fans.

When they got their first first down in the third quarter we joined the entire stadium in a sarcastic Bronx cheer. We decided to keep score ourselves, giving Michigan three points for every first down, to see if they could catch up to Wisconsin that way. About halfway through the third, I realized that the nation's longest scoring streak (October 1984 at Iowa was the last time we were shut out) was in jeopardy. When we scored the first TD, I was just happy they were fighting a little bit, maybe finding something that might help them next week. When Brandon Minor scampered in from 40 yards out on a great call from RR and Calvin McGee, I turned to my friend and commented, "Wouldn't it be ironic if that tackle of the Wisconsin defender at the three as time expired in the first half ended up being the difference in the game?" I think we all figured that Wisconsin would move the ball down the field, chew up some clock, maybe kick a FG and that would be that. We were just happy that they had fought back.

When John Thompson intercepted the tipped pass on the very next play and followed a herd of defensive lineman into the end zone, I kept shouting at the top of my lungs, "Holy F'in Sh#$, Holy F'in Sh@#!!" We had no business even being in this game, let alone leading it halfway through the fourth quarter. The Badger fans near us were absolutely stunned. I thought about taunting some of them, but I didn't have the heart, and I knew the game wasn't over. When Steven Threet pulled off that beautiful fake and 70 yard run, I kept shouting it again, and could hear echoes of the ghost of Bob Ufer, "He faked the ball to Minor, and the whole Wisconsin defense and yours truly went with Minor, and Threet tucked the ball and went down that sideline like a penguin with a hot herring in his cummerbund." When McGuffie punched it in a few plays later, the nightmare had become the unlikeliest of dreams.

The Badger offense finally awoke, helped by their all everything TE Travis Beckum, who hadn't played all game, and pulled off two stellar drives with a number of plays where we seemed to be just a step late for the game sealing interception. Only when that onside kick went out of bounds, did we exhale and exult. We had stolen a game, plain and simple.

I think this was Rich Rod's Virginia game. In his first career game, Lloyd Carr's team came back from 17 points down to beat a good Virginia team 18-17. Like this game, it was a game the other team dominated all game, but just didn't cash in their opportunities when they had them. That win was Carr's signature win for most of his first season, until they upset Ohio State, and it showed everyone that Michigan football was going to be just fine under Carr. This game is a signature win for Rich Rod, at least for right now. There will be more ups and downs in this season, but this win was reassurance for all of us who were worrying as we walked around the stadium at halftime that Michigan football will survive. That resiliency that we loved so much under Coach Carr hasn't gone away. There will be new heroes, new thrills, and many triumphs to come.

The light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train

We skip ahead in our pre-season thoughts to the tough three game stretch that ends Michigan's regular season: @ MSU, @ Wisconsin, & Ohowihateohio State in A Squared.

Other people have captured the essence of Spartan Football better than I could ever hope to, so I won't say a whole lot about our little green neighbors to the north.

I think that the potential exists for this to be a bad season for MSU, even by their relaxed standards. The talent that John L left behind doesn't really mesh well with Mark Dantonio's no-nonsense style. They are very thin on the defensive line and at linebacker. They have an offensive line that will have to learn a new style of blocking. Their defensive backfield last year made the Maginot Line look impenetrable. Their schedule, while not impossibly hard, does include trips to ND, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue and visits from Michigan, Pitt and Penn State.

I'm not sold on Dantonio. It seems like the best quality that each new Spartan coach has is that he's not like the last one. So while John L was crazy and always entertaining, Dantonio makes Al Gore look animated. John L was an offensive minded coach, Dantonio is defensive minded. John L's teams were among the nation's leaders in penalties, Dantonio's teams are disciplined. John L ran a creative, maybe even innovative offense. Dantonio will run a vanilla package.
So will Dantanio be successful? If successful means getting to a bowl game every other year or so, maybe. Tom Izzo successful? Given the last 40+ years of Spartan football, I wouldn't bet on it.

So now, On (to) Wisconsion. This game worries me more than any other this year, mostly because is on the road, and because it is likely to be a night game with 80,000 rowdy (and well hydrated) Badger fans making it difficult on the vaunted Michigan offense. While the Badger offense is pretty plain, it does return 9 starters, including four of five Olineman and freshman all-american PJ Hill. Meanwhile, the Badger defense will be among the best in the country. Jack Iwannkillareceiver is one of the best CBs in the conference, if not the country. The front 7, which returns almost entirely intact, allowed just over 100 yards per game rushing last year.

The schedule is not as cupcake laden as last year, but it is eminently manageable. One tough game in September, Iowa at home. One tough game in October, at Penn State and the two top games back to back in November, @ OSU and at home against Michigan. On paper, this looks like it could be a good year for Bucky.

That being said, I can't get away from the feeling that this Badger team will lose a number of games they aren't supposed to, and will fail to live up to their lofty ranking. I think that in college football, there is a regression to the historical norm for most teams in a given year. That is to say, that if a team outperforms their historical norm in one year, the chances are they will come back down the next year, barring the emergence of some new dramatic force that will upgrade their program. Now, Brett Bielema might be one of those rare coaches that can elevate a program from good to very good, or very good to elite, but if I would have to guess I would say that he is an average to above average coach who had a lot of things break his way last year.
If I had to guess, I would say 10-2 or 9-3 with a win over either OSU pr Michigan (but not both) and another trip to Florida for New Year's Day.

OSU preview coming up later on Friday.