Bye Week This and That

In no particular order:
-Raise your hand if you wrote down Missouri, Oregon, Auburn and Michigan State at the start of the year as the last remaining unbeatens from the BCS conference. Liar.
-If there are any Rich Rod critics out there who still believe that his offense "won't work on a big stage", please note that three of those four teams run versions of his offense. That and the fact that Northwestern has run the offense successfully for ten years with less talent than just about anyone in the league. His problem ain't offense, it's everything else.
-I didn't see any of the MSU/Northwestern game, and only heard a few minutes of it on the radio as we were running errands, but it seems to me that road wins against winning conference teams where you come back from a 17-0 deficit are one of the requirements for a championship season.
-MSU can almost print their tickets for Pasadena. With Iowa's loss to Wisconsin, the spartans can afford to lose one of their remaining four games and still win the league title. Even if they lose to the Hawkeyes next week, they can still win the title if OSU beats Iowa, or if MSU, Iowa, & Wisconsin all finish with one loss. Even if you throw OSU in there and make it a four way tie, MSU still gets the Rose Bowl bid. All the Spartans have to do is beat Purdue and Minnesota at home and Penn State on the road and they get their first Rose Bowl in 23 years. It would take an epic collapse to miss out on a BCS bowl. While "epic collapse" and "Michigan State" have gone together like the Captain and Tenile for the better part of the last 40 years, that trend has reversed itself the last three years, as they have found a way to win important games down the stretch in each of Dantonio's first three years.
-Of course, if they win in Iowa City on saturday, they may miss the Rose Bowl by getting invited to the BCS championship game. They may get to play Boise State sooner than they planned.
-It seems that the best LSU QB changes from week to week, depending on who's starting, with the best player always being the guy who comes off the bench.
-What the hell has happened to Texas? I understand them having an off year (they've won ten or more since 2001, and haven't won fewer than 9 since 97), but losing to Iowa State? At home? Maybe Mack Brown has checked out, but you'd figure they have enough talent to overcome whatever is ailing them against Iowa State in Austin. They might be an underdog this week at home against Baylor. I'm pretty sure that's one of the signs of the apocalypse.
-The SEC East is starting to look like a typical year in the ACC, where all teams finish between 5-3 and 3-5 in conference. I wonder if Urban Meyer is regretting his decision to come back. Can they fire Mark Richt if he wins the SEC East at 5-3? I think Derek Dooley had more wins over SEC teams when he was at La Tech then he does at Tennessee.
-Like offense? Try watching the Cal Golden Bears. So far this year they've scored 52 against UC Davis, 52 on Colorado, given up 52 to Nevada, scored 35 on UCLA, given up 48 to USC, and just this week scored 50 on Arizona State. They're scoring 35 points per game and haven't played the two worst scoring defenses in the Pac Ten, Washington State and Oregon State. They haven't played the top two offenses, Oregon and Stanford, either.
-This weekend was about as bad as possible for us on a bye week. All five of the teams we've beaten this year were beaten this week, some in blowout fashion - IU by 30 to Illinois, Notre Dame by 18 to Navy, UConn shutout at Louisville, 26-0, BGSU losing by 24 to Kent State. Strength of schedule really doesn't matter too much to a team nowhere near the BCS, but the fact that Umass was beaten 39-13 by a 5-3 New Hampshire team really doesn't me a lot of confidence about the season going forward.

Perspective

I was set to write a post about the Purdue game, about how the decent offense, no-defense, series of near misses and what-ifs in the game were just a microcosm of the year, and of the entire RR-era, and about how more than likely it was now a matter of when (probably two years from now), not if Rich Rod leaves when we were thrown a gigantic curve ball, the type of life-altering moment that punches you in the gut, and leaves you in a heap on the floor, an emotional cripple.

Everything that was on-going, work, school, blog, sports, AG, got set aside for a week or so, and only things that dealt with the crisis were attended to. Gone was any thoughts of bubble screens, defensive play calling, or coaches buyouts. To say that things were put into perspective is both incredibly cliche and an understatement of Weisian proportions.

This is not to say that football and other sports don't matter anymore, they do. You don't spend as much money on tickets, and as much time thinking, talking, and in some cases, writing (if that's what you want to call this) about something that isn't important. But it's little I important. It's the type of thing that belongs in conversations that start, "Hey, what's up", or "How about that game last night?" Big I important is what friends, relatives, and casual acquaintances read about you in a two paragraph summary of your life in the local paper. Big I important is what people think about as they stand above you saying their goodbyes. Big I important is making sure that the people who surround you and depend on you everyday are taken care of, and making sure that they know, and hear, how you feel about them.

Little I important things are there to entertain us, and distract us from drowning in the flood of emotions that come with a Big I important moment. So that's what we are here for today. To soldier on, to endure, and to think of all the positive moments that have come before, and not just on the pain that has recently been inflicted upon us. That's true for the Big I world, where we have to go back to work, back to school, and back to as much of a regular routine as we can to try and get used to the new reality, and it's true for the little I important world, where we should remember that this is supposed to be fun, and sometimes we just have to wait out the bad stuff to get to the good moments.

So, I'll get up the Golden Rankings soon, and will have some thoughts on the impending doom this weekend at the hands of Lord Saur-, er, uh, Tressel and his minions, and will get back to doing things like getting overly upset at the inability of our freshman walk-on safeties and linebackers to cover a simple crossing route or deep post.

Pick your metaphor

Oh yeah, I suppose I should address our game this weekend.

Sigh.

It wasn't good. The offense played hot potato with the football. The special teams were sub-par. There were many poor or questionable coaching decisions. And the defense couldn't catch a cold.

After each of our previous losses this season, I've tried to look at the big picture. Although we still have a chance to make a bowl game and show improvement this season, the overall numbers are not good, and it does seem like they will improve anytime soon. O fer October in two years. 3-10 in Big Ten play. Out gained by every BCS opponent this year.

So where do we go from here? This loss has definitely brought out the pitchforks in some places and there are plenty of people who want to jettison Rich Rod now. But if you listen to comments made by school president Mary Sue Coleman, that's not going to happen this or next year. He's here through 2011, unless he chooses to leave, which is also unlikely given that he'd owe us a big buyout if he quit.

Personally, I'm glad the people in power have some patience. As frustrating as the last two years have been, firing RR now would put the program back and would potentially extend our walk in the wilderness. While I still support the coach, I have a hard time arguing now with those who say he's a bad fit here or will never be successful here.

Other thoughts:
-It's amazing to watch all the SEC slappies in the media get all over Iowa for trailing Indiana after three quarters, or for getting some questionable calls in the game. Didn't Alabama need a last second blocked field goal to beat a mediocre Tennessee team (hello, we lost at home to UCLA), and didn't Florida get some referee gifts to beat Arkansas? Now, I'm not saying that Iowa should be ranked ahead of those teams, it's just that the vitriol pointing there way seems out of place.
-Wow, Oregon. Chip Kelly's gonna get some coach of the year consideration, which is amazing since after week one, it looked like he was in over his head. Now that's what the spread option offense is supposed to look like.
-MSU's loss at Minnesota was almost as bad as Michigan's at Illinois. Ok, maybe not that bad, but it still puts them in a bad position. They now need to beat either Penn State at home or Purdue on the road to go bowling (assuming they beat WMU). I don't understand why Keith Nichol is still getting any playing time. I also don't see how you give up 42 points to a team that has 17 penalties for over 150 yards. Dantonio's lucky that Michigan has been so bad the last two years. Otherwise the main local story this year would be about the "Same Old Spartans".
-The Pizza Pizza bowl must be licking their chops. With both Michigan and MSU looking like they won't get above six wins, if they make it that far, there's a non-zero chance that they could get one of the two local teams. With CMU still in the running for the MAC title, they have a good chance to sell out Ford Field. Anyone interested in watching CMU carve up Michigan's secondary? How about MSU-CMU II?

Two Thoughts

Went through my head as I walked away from Michigan Stadium frozen to the core after the game this afternoon:
-Thank god this season is over, and I don't have to sit through another debacle at the corner of Stadium and Main. I shared this opinion with those walking around me, and got several amens



"Some things in life are bad,
They can really make you mad,
Other things just make you swear and curse,
When you're chewing life's gristle,
Don't grumble,
Give a whistle
And this'll help things turn out for the best.
And...

Always look on the bright side of life.
[whistle]
Always look on the light side of life.
[whistle]

If life seems jolly rotten,
There's something you've forgotten,
And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing.
When you're feeling in the dumps,
Don't be silly chumps.
Just purse your lips and whistle.
That's the thing.
And...

Always look on the bright side of life.
[whistle]
Always look on the right side of life,
[whistle]
For life is quite absurd
And death's the final word.
You must always face the curtain with a bow.
Forget about your sin.
Give the audience a grin.
Enjoy it.
It's your last chance, anyhow.
So,...

Always look on the bright side of death,
[whistle]
Just before you draw your terminal breath.
[whistle]

Life's a piece of shit,
When you look at it.
Life's a laugh and death's a joke it's true.
You'll see it's all a show.
Keep 'em laughing as you go.
Just remember that the last laugh is on you.
And...

Always look on the bright side of life.
Always look on the right side of life.
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]"

A fitting epithet for the season if there ever was one.

Walk in the Wilderness

Ok, I'll go out on a little limb here. I'm beginning to think we made the wrong choice for head coach. Or at the very least, he made some bad choices for his assistants. Rich Rod is looking like a man who is in over his head. I think he may eventually turn it around. By 2010, we will probably be back where we were under Lloyd Carr, a consistent top 10-15 team that wins 8-10 games every year. But I don't think that Rich Rod will ever get us to the elite, Texas, USC, Florida, or gulp, OSU level.

While I agree that players have to make plays, coaches can only do so much, yada yada yada, I think that when a team doesn't improve as the season goes along, that is directly attributable to coaching, and more specifically, the teaching. There is no doubt that this is the worst Michigan team I have ever seen, and it is on it's way to being the worst in the 129 years of Michigan football, in just about every measurable way. They are on pace for the fewest points scored since 1984. They have already given up more points than all but one Lloyd Carr team did in an entire season. Gary Moeller's 1994 team, which was reviled as the worst Michigan defense in the Schembechler era gave up only 12 points more in 12 games than this team has in 9 games. They allowed a Purdue team that had scored less than 10 in three of their four Big Ten games 48 points. They allowed an MSU team that was held to 25 yards rushing by Wisconsin to gain over 500 yards. They are last in the Big Ten in Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense, Total Defense, Total Offense, Pass Offense, Pass Defense, and Turnover Margin.

I have heard all the explanations for the bad season (I have even espoused a few of them myself). But as the embarrassing losses pile up, those begin to sound more and more like rationalizations. Yes, they lost of lot of talent from last year. That might explain a 4-5 record and an erratic offense, but it doesn't explain 2-7 against a fairly weak schedule and a defense that can't tackle, and doesn't understand the most basic principles of the game, especially when you consider that they returned 9 starters from defense. What is it that makes the defense so much worse than last year?
Yes they were converting to a new system on both sides of the ball. But so was Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech, and he's 7-2. So was John L. Smith in his first year at State, and they went 8-4. We all expected some growing pains. But this year goes beyond that.
I know his first team at WVU was 3-8, and they went to 9-4 the next year. But the program he took over there was 11-12 the prior two years. Two years Michigan came within a field goal of the national championship game, and beat the defending champs this year. This program didn't need to be rebuilt, it needed to be tweaked or refined.
Some people might say, "One bad season does not make someone a bad coach," and I would agree with them. But I think that whenever a coach make a transition from one program to another, you have a set of incomplete data with which to evaluate their prior performance. It's often hard to tell if success in one season or another is a function of coaching, or of institutional advantages. What this year is causing me to re-evaluate the evidence we had at the time of the hire.

Now don't misunderstand me, I don't think they should fire Rich Rod. That would be completely unproductive, and would set us back a few more years. Just look at what has happened to Auburn when they fired their new OC halfway through his first season. I will continue to support the team and Rich Rod. I'm just getting resigned to the ever increasing possibility that it may be a while before we are our old self again.

Little Brother has his day

No fluke this time, Michigan State was clearly the better team on Saturday. They moved the ball up and down the field by simply out executing Michigan.
-This is a huge win for State. First, I think they exorcised the ghost of Spartan Bob. Since that infamous game in 2001, they have suffered some the most heart wrenching games to their arch-rival: A 49-3 pasting where their coach admits he is clueless; a loss to the worst (at that time) Michigan team in 40 years; an all time collapse at the hands of perhaps the best WR to ever play at Michigan; and another 4th quarter collapse after which the coach got into a verbal sparing match with an opposing player. In this game, the horrendous bad call went against State, but didn't affect the outcome of the game.
-Secondly, the way they won the game was important. Instead of collapsing, they actually came from behind in the 4th quarter. A big part of success in college football is attitude. Winning teams expect to win, historically losing teams expect to lose on some level. As Bo so famously put it, "What the mind can conceive, the mind can achieve" For a long time, Spartan football has been synonymous with choking and mind-boggling collapses. Slowly, but surely, Dantonio is changing that perception, both with his players, and with the fans.
-Dantonio is turning into Lloyd Carr. From the offensive style, to the emotion that occasionally spills out in press conferences, he is picking up where Carr left off. Funny that many Spartan fans who used to rip Carr for everything under the sun are more than willing to embrace Dantonio.
-The single most impressive thing to me about the State team was their execution on third down. They were something like 7 for 12 in the first half on third down. Michigan did a halfway decent job on first and second down, but just couldn't get State off the field.

So where does this game leave Michigan? About where they were before the game: in the middle of a disaster of a year, the worst in almost half a century. This season is lost, they are all but eliminated from a bowl game. Only a miracle turnaround can salvage anything for this year.
These next four games are important more for next year than this. For the players, and the coaches, the outlook for next year will be a lot better with a 3-1 or 2-2 start than if they keep losing games. Put another way, if they finish 2-10, they won't be going to a bowl game next year. With some positive momentum, a successful season next year is still possible.
-There are two ways this thing can go. Either this is the bad season almost all good coaches had in their first year, which is followed in year two or three by a breakout year (Tressel, Meyer, Carroll, Saban all followed this pattern). Or this could be the beginning of our walk in the wilderness, with no clear sign how long it will last. Nebraska is in year five of their walk, Notre Dame is in year 12. USC went a decade in the 90s between Rose Bowls, Oklahoma languished with Howard Schnellenberger or John Blake for 8 years.
-Once again the most concerning aspect of the game was our defense. Although we clearly had out moments and a few players looked really good (Brandon Graham), a combination of horrible play calling (the 3-3-5 has to go), lousy tackling, and awful pursuit angles just killed us. I can't shake the feeling that there is little improvement happening here.
-The offense also had its moments, but just seems to be a few players short (two or three O lineman, another good receiver, and perhaps a healthy QB who is very accurate).
-If there is good teaching happening here, we haven't witnessed it. The problems that were there in the Utah game are stil there now.

A note about the "Little Brother" label. I know a lot of Michigan fans use this as a derrogative term, but I choose to look at the positive connotations of the term. The State / UM rivalry is different than the OSU or ND rivalries. To me the State rivalry is friendlier, because we all work together and live together. Every one who lives in Michigan knows a Spartan or Wolverine fan. Despite the teasing, and the occasional verbal altercations, we are family. The fanbases of the two schools have more in common than either would like to admit. The OSU and ND fanbases seem more foreign to me. I would never root for either of those teams, as I often do for State. Furthermore, I wouldn't send my son to either of those two schools. The best evidence for this came at halftime of the game on saturday. At the end of the halftime show, the State and Michigan bands joined together on the field to play a couple of songs, with the two bands intermingled, side-by-side. Can you imagine that happening when Michigan visits Columbus?
As for the "little" part, State is the younger school and the younger football program. The little doesn't have to mean anything else other than "younger". My little brother is bigger, and probably smarter than I am. He's still my little brother.