Who needs defense?

Lon Horwedl / annarbor.com


One of the reasons I enjoy having football season tickets is that even in the midst of disappointing seasons you get these moments and games that are pure magic. In the middle of our first rose bowl less season in four years, 1979, we got Wangler to Carter, the greatest play in the first 100 years of Michigan football. In the middle of the Year of Infinite Pain, 2005, we got Manningham's dagger in the heart of Penn State. Even the awful 3-9 2008 campaign produced a comeback for the ages against Wisconsin.
That's what saturday's game was. Put aside all the disappointment from the last three games, all the concerns about the defense, all the speculation of will he stay? or will he go? and just enjoy an entertaining game. It was interesting that we heard little if any booing during the game. Sure there were no shortage of sarcastic comments or cheers, including a hearty round of "Save your job, Save your job" during the first overtime, but there wasn't the booing or "We want Harbaugh" chants we heard at the iowa game. Maybe the first play TD strike to Roundtree placated the fans a little. Or maybe we've just moved past the anger and depression stages of grieving for our defense and moved on to acceptance. Illinois just scored on a 60 yard run. So what? We know our defense sucks, when's the offense coming back out on the field?
Long ago, when I was much younger and was particularly down that my plans in life didn't seem to be working out, a good friend told me, "If you can't figure out a plan for life, just figure out a plan for today." So we take this approach going forward - the big picture will take care of itself, we will focus on each game, trying to get as much enjoyment out of the four(!) remaining Michigan football games as we can and worry about the big picture items later.
Other thoughts:
-Any doubts the last three games might have created about this offense were emphatically erased by this game. The Illini were the #15 defense in the country and hadn't given up more than 26 points in any game this year, despite playing three top ten teams, Missouri, OSU, and MSU. We got that in a half. The hadn't given up more than 390 yards in any one game this year, we got 386 in the first half. There is no doubt that as long as Rich Rod stays here, we will have one of the best offenses in the country.
-Despite the massive numbers, I acutally thought there were signs of progress on defense. Craig Roh is much better as a Dlineman than a LB. Courtney Avery palyed well, and made a good open field tackle on a player that was very similar to the one against Iowa that he missed and allowed them to get their last field goal. Finally, I think Cam Gordon is a better fit at the Spur position than at safety because of his size.
-I loved the reverse on the kickoff but don't understand why Jeremy Gallon is allowed to continue to return kicks after he fumbles one. I also think that we should be onside kicking every once an a while. With our defense, the opposition can (and will) score from almost anywhere. Why not take a chance on getting the ball back? If they are going to bring in new defensive coaches, they should consider finding one or two who have experience coaching special teams.
-I hope Tate Forcier realizes how important a good backup QB is in this offense. At the start of the year, all the buzz was about Denard and how he was a one man offense. In this game (and to a lesser extent the Iowa game), Tate showed that this offense is lethal no matter who is pulling the trigger. If he comes back next year, we will have the best QB situation in the country.
-Nice to see Michael Shaw back at something approaching 100%. Vincent Smith ran a lot better because he didn't have to shoulder all (or most) of the load.
-The receivers had a very nice game (obviously). We don't have that one dominant reciever that we had in the past with Braylon or Manningham, but we might have as much depth there as we've had in a long long time.
-Hurry back Carl Grapentine. The substitute PA guy was awful.
-I think it's safe to cross Arizona off the list of teams that could possibly beat Oregon. They were dominated by Stanford and have to travel to Eugene in three weeks. After a game at Cal, who just won their first road game of the year at Washington State, this weekend, they get a bye, Arizona at home, and then must travel to Corvallis to play Oregon State. Interestingly enough, the Beavers have already played (and lost to) TCU and Boise State. The season ending tilt against the Nike Ducks might be the last chance those two teams have to reach the championship game.
-Another classic game in Baton Rouge. it's too bad they won't get a chance to play in the SEC championship game, because I think they might be the best team in the league.

Dead Coach Walking?

It's not possible to overstate just how incredibly bad the Michigan defense played the night before Halloween. A team that was averaging 109 yards rushing per game got 109 in the first half. A team that had been averaging 344 yards of total offense got 435. A team that had been out gained by 80 yards by the hapless Minnesota Golden Gophers out gained the vaunted Michigan offense. A team that had been averaging 20 points per game, scored 41 and ended the game by taking a knee inside the Michigan five-yard line. And they did this with a third-string walk-on QB and a patchwork offensive line, and without the aid of any turnovers.
This offensive explosion from a team that has one of the worst offenses in the league, when healthy, came on the heels of a series of position moves during the bye week that were eerily similar to the changes in the defense made before the Purdue game in 2008, when Michigan played a 3-3-5 for the first time all year and a backup running back turned QB torched Michigan for a bazillion yards and more points than Purdue had scored all year. Just like that game, the Michigan defenders looked lost, and constantly out of position. It was a coaching failure of the highest order. It has become clear the Rich Rod knows only slightly more about defense than I do, and doesn't have the faintest clue how to go about teaching it to young players. Which is really a shame, considering he knows more about the spread offense than anyone coaching today. We have the worst defense in the league, and the best offense.

So was this game the tipping point for Rich Rod? Depends on who you ask. Some were ready to get rid of him when he quoted the Lion King at his opening press conference. For some it was the loss to Toledo. For the first time, I think, more than 50% of the fanbase think its time for a change. For me it was the MSU loss this year, although it took until this game for me to accept it. Although I recognize the beauty of his offense and know that if he stays we will have an Oregon like offense if not next year than the year after it, I can't get past the lack of any defensive fundamentals, the poor personnel decisions (Marell Evans anyone?), and the complete tailspin they've gone in for three straight years. There is still time to turn this season around, but we've seen no evidence that Rich Rod's teams are capable of that.

Other random thoughts:
-Mark Dantonio showed his true stripes (win-at-all-costs), I'm glad the mainstream media is finally picking up on that. Hey Mark, if you want to be a father figure to these kids (your words, not mine), try acting like a father. If you tell a kid the consequences of bad behavior is a certain punishment, and then you don't follow through with the punishment when they do that bad behavior, they learn not to listen to you, or believe you when you tell them there will be dire consequences if they mess up.
-How the hell did Texas beat Nebraska?
-All of a sudden, West Virginia has fallen off the map. I wonder if they might be willing to take Rich Rod back? Maybe we could work out a sign and trade.
-That Iowa collapse against Wisconsin last week is looking like it might be the pivotal game in the Big Ten race this year. Iowa looked very good against MSU and has a decent chance of beating OSU in two weeks. But even if they run the table, if Wisconsin also runs the table, they are out of luck for the Rose Bowl.
-Tulsa? Seriously, Tulsa?!? Is this why you decided to stay an independent?
-The story about the Notre Dame student killed while filming football practice is tragic, and his tweets were especially haunting. This accident is gonna cost the university a ton of money, and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of heat comes on Brian Kelly because of it.
-The Cal scoring streak continued, blows out teams at home, gets blown out on the road - they lost at Oregon State 35-7. They travel to Washington State, so a continuation of the trend would be quite shocking. They close the season with home games against Oregon, Stanford, and Washington.

Defense?!? We don't need no stinkin' defense!

I was lucky on Saturday in that I didn't watch most of our game in Bloomington live. Due to my son's soccer game starting at 3:45, I got a few updates during the first half, saw a little bit of the start of the second half at home, and then watched the final drive at a Pizza Hut surrounded by a bunch of hungry eight year-olds. Of course I recorded the game and was able to watch it later on in the evening. I could fast forward through much of the game when we were on defense. The funny thing is that it took me longer to fast forward through the Hoosiers 98 offensive plays than it did to watch Michigan's offensive plays twice.

The most interesting thing about the game, was that I think both coaching staffs came into the game thinking they couldn't stop the other team on offense. Indiana decided that they were going to be aggressive on defense, hoping to get some big negative plays and or turnovers. They slanted their d-line a lot, had their linebackers key on Denard, and occasionally bringing a safety up to the line. That resulted in a lot of single coverage on wide receivers, and no deep run support, which led to a lot of long plays on Michigan's part. The Michigan coaches, on the other hand, decided to play soft coverage (for the most part), hoping that by forcing the Hoosiers to dink and dunk their way down the field, they would eventually make a mistake. For the most part, Indiana did not make mistakes and held the ball for an impossibly long time. In the end, neither defense did anything to suggest that they will be anything other than putrid this year.

In that sense, I think this game probably reinforced most people's ideas of what Michigan's team will be this year. Those that were convinced that this year is just like last year will point to the 500 yards passing allowed against a traditional doormat of the league and proclaim that the tougher teams in the league will run up the score. Those that see this as a new year point to a second straight road win and the continual video-game like stats of Denard Robinson as proof that even when our defense is the dregs, we can still outscore anyone. I think that both viewpoints are valid. This is probably the worst defense in the big ten, and despite its youth, I'm not sure it will make any quantum leaps this year. At the same time there's a real chance that this is the best offense in the league. Everyone talks about Denard's obvious abilities, but the offensive line is monster, the TEs are good blockers, and the receiving corps might be the best in the league, both in receiving and in blocking. What this all means is that we are likely to see more shootout, last team with the ball wins type games.

Other random thoughts:
-One thing that will help our defense is the inherent conservatism in a lot of coaches in the league--Tressel, Ferentz, Paterno, and to a lesser extent Lt. Dan and the Madison Meathead are all "run or die trying" coaches. Our run defense is not stellar by any stretch of the imagination, but our pass defense is so porus that any time spent trying to establish the run is a wasted opportunity to beat our corners deep, or catch one of our linebackers trying to cover a TE. One or two wasted opportunities might be all our offense needs to win a game.
-I don't think the all-out blitzing, throw the kitchen sink at them approach will work with this defense, but I would like to see us disguise our coverages or vary things up a little bit. Playing 20 yards off the receivers every play seems like its asking to get picked apart. Throw in an occasional four man line, or a safety blitz. I noticed they played Mike Martin at DE a little against Indiana. Maybe moving him around some more, or bringing in other big bodies (Patterson, Will Campbell) on run downs will help against the caveman offenses.
-Having Brandon Herron back this week will help the pass rush, because it will allow us to move Craig Roh to his more natural position, DE on passing downs. It will also be good to get Carvin Johnson back, because I think he may be a little more physical than Thomas Gordon, although Gordan hasn't played that badly
- I don't know why LSU fans are complaining about Les Miles. They all want to go back to the days when they had a handsome, well dressed coach who always seemed to be in full control. But who's to say that if they got rid of Miles they wouldn't end up with another coach like the guy who came before the guy they're all pinning for. Maybe the norm for LSU coaches is not Nick Saban, but rather Gerry Dinardo. At least Les keeps the games interesting, and his press conferences are certainly more entertaining that anything Dinardo does on the Big Ten network.
-Lane Kiffin is an idiot. Up two with Washington driving, already in FG range with two minutes left, he decides not to use any of his three timeouts to give his offense time to respond, instead choosing to use two of them to ice the Washington kicker Eric Folk (who beat SC last year with a late FG) before his 32 yard attempt. Rats are gonna start jumping off that ship soon, if they haven't already.
-Gambler's Lament-Another exhibit why gambling on college sports is bad for your health was the Northwestern/Minnesota game. In our weekly College Pick'em pool (no money, just bragging rights), I had the Wildcats -5.5 @ Minnesota. Late in the game, with Minnesota leading 28-20, i flipped over to another game, figuring I was gonna lose this one. I flipped back a few minutes later to find that not only had Northwestern scored a TD, they'd missed the two point conversion, gotten the ball back and kicked a field goal. Now they were leading 29-28 and Minnesota had the ball with under a minute left. This game was toast for me, NU wasn't going to cover. But with just over 30 seconds left, with no timeouts left, Minnesota's QB threw it right to a Northwestern LB in the flat who broke into the clear and headed toward a pick six. Just about the time I jumped out of my seat, excited that I might actually get this pick right, the Wildcat linebacker realized where he was, realized that they didn't need to score and slide to the ground at about the 30. Good thing I didn't have any money on the game, or I might have been really pissed.
-More Golden rankings stuff later this week, and maybe if I find the time a post about the upcoming game with little brother.