More Adjustments and a final bracket

I increased the bonus for beating a top 50 team and the penalty for losing to a below 200 team. I also increased the road win bonus and home loss penalty. Final ranking (minus the Big Ten championship, which is still ongoing) is up. I also posted the final bracket.
Before anyone pipes up, I offer my critique of my own bracket. Remember my bracket is just a reflection of the rankings, and not an opinion of who should be in, or an attempt to recreate the process that the actual selection committee goes through.

Teams that are in my bracket, but don't belong in the Dance:
Texas A&M
Auburn
San Diego State
Creighton

Teams that are out that should be in:
Wisconsin
Boston College
Maryland
Davidson (I just want to see Curry play some more)

Teams that are ranked too high:
MSU (should be a 2)
Duke (2/3)
Gonzaga (5/6)
Utah State (8/9)
Xavier (4/5)

Teams ranked too low:
North Carolina (1)
Louisville (1)
Memphis (2/1)
Florida State (4/5)
UCLA (5/6)

Tweaking the rankings

I made some adjustments to the rankings, and consequently to the brackets:

-I increased the weight of opponents' opponents, so that each win or loss of an opponents' opponent counts for 0.4 wins, instead of 0.2. I also added a "quality win" bonus (win over team in top 50) and "bad loss" penalty (loss to team under 200). These changes had the affect of helping major conference teams and hurting teams from smaller conferences.
-I eliminated the scores of games against Division II or lower schools. For most schools this didn't make much of a difference, but it did help some schools who had played just one game against lower level teams because it helped their average. For some of the really small conferences, it hurt the teams because it lowered the overall number of wins in the conference, thereby rewarding fewer points for each win.
-Finally, I adjusted the victory and loss margin rewards/penalties so that they reflected game totals and win / loss totals more accurately. This generally widened the margin between the good and the bad teams.

-For the brackets, in conferences that had finished their champion as of Sunday night, I included them. If not, I used the highest rated team still in the tournament.

For our new readers who felt the need to offer some constructive criticism, please remember that the bracketology is not meant as a prediction of the tournament field, but rather is a projection of the field using only our ranking system, which admittedly is imperfect and is still a work in progress (as evidenced by the changes above). Clearly we don't think Utah State is worthy of such a high seed, or Niagara worthy of a bid at all. But what we are trying to do is create a mathematical model that will simulate the strength and weaknesses of all teams that we can all observe, and thereby predict future results.

Bracketology 2009

A new year, brings new bracket projection based on our Roundball Rankings.
As usual:
-Teams were placed based on the snaking method, with the top 2 in the same region as the lowest #1 seed, the highest #3 with the lowest #2, and so on.
-Teams were moved within their bands to avoid interconference matchups before the elite eight
-Teams with the conferences listed are autobid teams
-Regional sites were awarded based on the location of the top seed.
-Brackets are based on rankings as of Sunday Night, 1/4

Last Four In:
Creighton
Siena
LSU
Evansville

First Four Out:
Iowa
Purdue
Miami
Rhode Island

Bids by Conference:
Big East 8
ACC 7
Big Ten 6
Big Twelve 5
Pac Ten 5
SEC 4
MVC 3
A10 2
MAAC 2
Mountain West 2

Conference Season Starts

With about five or six minutes left in today's game at Crisler, this promising basketball season looked to be reaching a crisis point. After getting demolished on New Year's eve in game against Wisconsin that wasn't as close as the final 13 point margin might suggest, Beilein's boys were seven points down to Illinois. They were losing for the same reasons they lost to Wisconsin -- defense. Illinois, while not a huge team, was using a size advantage created by our lineup, essentially four guards and DeShawn Sims, to get easy shots down low or kick outs for wide open jumpers, created by help defense in the post.
I started to wonder whether this team would be able to survive in the Big Ten with its dearth of quality post defense. if we had to rely on outscoring teams in half court games, it would be a long conference season, and our hopes of finally playing meaningful games in March might be dashed.
But then something happened. They started fighting through screens on the baseline. They started getting their hands up and moving quicker in the 1-3-1. In the second half, every defensive possession, you could see the rest of the team on the bench waving their hands, exhorting the team on. And they got some balanced scoring, five players in double figures, and one more at 9 points.
Perhaps the most significant contribution in the game came from Zach Gibson, who was 4-5 for ten points, including two dunks and a three. He also had a good block and couple of assists. We are a different team when he plays like he does today. He helps our post defense tremendously, and makes us a more complete lineup.

New basketball rankings are posted. Big changes in the top ten with the start of conference play. Pittsburgh jumps up to #1 with the big win against Georgetown. MSU jumps up on the strength of two road wins at Minnesota and Northwestern. Gonzaga continues their free fall with a loss to Utah. Top overall riser was Drexel, up 93 spots with two road wins over Hofstra and St. Joseph's. Biggest loser was George Washington, on a four game losing streak, including losing three at the Rainbow classic.

New Basketball Rankings

As you may have noticed, we finally figured out the three column thing. From here on out, all new rankings will appear on the left sidebar. Some times I will offer comment on the new rankings, sometimes not. I will also try and post conference rankings from time to time.

Not much to report this week, as most of the top teams played few significant games. Top 5 teams remained the same, and two new teams joined the top ten, Stanford and Minnesota, while two others, Xavier and Ohio State dropped out with home losses to Butler and West Virginia respectively. Top riser this week was Texas Pan-American, biggest loser was Indiana who lost at home to Northeastern and Lipscomb.

Roundball Rankings, Dec 22

Not a lot of change in the top ten from last week, with only one team, Syracuse, who lost at home to Cleveland State falling out of the top ten. Clemson strengthened their place on top with a Sunday blowout at Miami. The top of the rankings are dominated by the ACC (5 teams), the Big East (6 teams), and the Big Ten (6 teams).

Top Riser -- Robert Morris, up 58 places
Biggest Faller -- Portland, down 75 places
Toughest Schedule -- Jacksonville, opponent average 87.75 place
Easiest Schedule -- Tennessee State, 254.14



In the conference rankings, the top 4 reamin unchanged, with the Pac 10 and SEC flip flopping at 4 and 5 and well behind the top 4. Despite an excellent saturday by the Big Ten (wins over Texas, Lousiville, and Davidson), the ACC still expanded their lead. On the other end, the SWAC has been quite impressive in their putridness. They have three winless teams and no one with more than 3 wins. Combined they are 14-87, despite playing 13 games against Division II and NAIA teams.

Roundball Rankings, Dec 15

The season debut of the Golden basketball rankings sees Clemson and Ohio State leading more highly ranked teams such as Oklahoma, Xavier, UConn, and Pitt.



Conference rankings have the ACC on top (surprise, surprise), but the Big Ten following not to far behind.