It's just a jump to the left...

Saturday's game at Purdue felt so much like something out of the mid-90s that I almost checked at halftime to make sure I had a tape in the VCR recording the game: Maddening offense that alternated between effective, and bleech; defense that looked adequate against a Purdue offense that couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat; bad weather that chased most of the normally sparse Boilermaker crowd; a gaggle of turnovers for both teams; and just enough points to win an ugly, ugly game. It was definitely not a thing of beauty, but given the way the last three years have gone, we'll take any win we can get.
- It was nice to see the defense play well, but I'm not sure we can read anything into this game, it looked like Purdue shot itself in the foot time and time again. I'm not sure they had a QB on the roster who could throw the ball more than 20 yards. The next two(three) offenses will face will bear no resemblance to this one.
-Denard is continuing to make bad decisions in the passing game. It's funny that a guy who is such a good runner seems unwilling to tuck it and run instead of trying to force a pass.
-Had an interesting conversation with my 8-year old son during the game. After Michigan scored late to go up 11, he announced, "We can't lose this game now, we're gonna win." Being a grizzled college football I get superstitious about things like that, so I said, "I wish you hadn't said that"
"Why Not?"
"Because you could jinx us"
"But we're still going to win aren't we?"
"Well, you never know what's going to happen, so you don't announce that we're going to win until it's a sure thing"
"But I'm sure we're going to win."

I guess he's just have to suffer some sort of catastrophic loss to understand the superstition of a veteran fan.
-Weird day in the Pac Ten - Cal almost beats Oregon, ASU almost beat Stanford, and Washington State wins their first conference road game since 2007.
-There is probably gonna be a few people who will get unfairly punished in the whole Cam Newton saga. None of them are from Auburn. Based on what we've heard, I tend to think that Newton was probably bought and paid for. I don't think Miss. State would've reported any of this if they didn't feel they had to protect their interests. That suggests that some, if not all of what they are reporting is true. I don't buy the idea that Newton (or his dad, or a representative for his family) would have asked MSU for money, and not Auburn. Even if they didn't ask Auburn for money, there is no way that Auburn would have taken a kid kicked out of Florida (how bad do you have to fuck up to get kicked off a Gator team that is considering replacing their defensive coordinator with a defense counsel?) without learning absolutely everything about him. Auburn probably knew Newton was looking for a handout and knew that would make him ineligible. They probably knew about his academic cheating episodes at UF. That alone would have made him untouchable at any school where the idea of a student athlete is not a joke. They choose to take him anyway, and probably paid to do so. They and Newton deserve any punishment they get.
-Another interesting item about the Newton thing is the reports of the FBI being involved. I don't think the FBI would get involved unless there were some more serious crimes involved. The FBI was involved in the Michigan basketball thing ten years ago because the main figure in the whole affair was running an illegal numbers scam at an area Ford plant. I wonder if Auburn uber-booster / trustee Bobby Lowder is being investigated for something more serious. If so, Cam Newton's eligibility might be the least of Auburn's worries.
-Gotta admire the consistency of the Grambling Tigers. Their last five games they've scored 38, 35, 35, 35, and 34 points. Unfortunately in that last game they gave up 41 to Texas Southern, which cost them the SWAC title.
-The FCS playoffs expanded to 20 teams this year. There are 123 FCS teams, and several leagues (SWAC, Pioneer, Ivy) that don't participate in the playoffs. There are 120 FBS teams. If the NCAA were to sponsor a playoff for the top division of college football, the likelihood that it would be limited to four, eight or 12 teams seem slim. Just like the basketball tournament, it would eventually expand to the max allowable size.

Who needs defense?

Lon Horwedl / annarbor.com


One of the reasons I enjoy having football season tickets is that even in the midst of disappointing seasons you get these moments and games that are pure magic. In the middle of our first rose bowl less season in four years, 1979, we got Wangler to Carter, the greatest play in the first 100 years of Michigan football. In the middle of the Year of Infinite Pain, 2005, we got Manningham's dagger in the heart of Penn State. Even the awful 3-9 2008 campaign produced a comeback for the ages against Wisconsin.
That's what saturday's game was. Put aside all the disappointment from the last three games, all the concerns about the defense, all the speculation of will he stay? or will he go? and just enjoy an entertaining game. It was interesting that we heard little if any booing during the game. Sure there were no shortage of sarcastic comments or cheers, including a hearty round of "Save your job, Save your job" during the first overtime, but there wasn't the booing or "We want Harbaugh" chants we heard at the iowa game. Maybe the first play TD strike to Roundtree placated the fans a little. Or maybe we've just moved past the anger and depression stages of grieving for our defense and moved on to acceptance. Illinois just scored on a 60 yard run. So what? We know our defense sucks, when's the offense coming back out on the field?
Long ago, when I was much younger and was particularly down that my plans in life didn't seem to be working out, a good friend told me, "If you can't figure out a plan for life, just figure out a plan for today." So we take this approach going forward - the big picture will take care of itself, we will focus on each game, trying to get as much enjoyment out of the four(!) remaining Michigan football games as we can and worry about the big picture items later.
Other thoughts:
-Any doubts the last three games might have created about this offense were emphatically erased by this game. The Illini were the #15 defense in the country and hadn't given up more than 26 points in any game this year, despite playing three top ten teams, Missouri, OSU, and MSU. We got that in a half. The hadn't given up more than 390 yards in any one game this year, we got 386 in the first half. There is no doubt that as long as Rich Rod stays here, we will have one of the best offenses in the country.
-Despite the massive numbers, I acutally thought there were signs of progress on defense. Craig Roh is much better as a Dlineman than a LB. Courtney Avery palyed well, and made a good open field tackle on a player that was very similar to the one against Iowa that he missed and allowed them to get their last field goal. Finally, I think Cam Gordon is a better fit at the Spur position than at safety because of his size.
-I loved the reverse on the kickoff but don't understand why Jeremy Gallon is allowed to continue to return kicks after he fumbles one. I also think that we should be onside kicking every once an a while. With our defense, the opposition can (and will) score from almost anywhere. Why not take a chance on getting the ball back? If they are going to bring in new defensive coaches, they should consider finding one or two who have experience coaching special teams.
-I hope Tate Forcier realizes how important a good backup QB is in this offense. At the start of the year, all the buzz was about Denard and how he was a one man offense. In this game (and to a lesser extent the Iowa game), Tate showed that this offense is lethal no matter who is pulling the trigger. If he comes back next year, we will have the best QB situation in the country.
-Nice to see Michael Shaw back at something approaching 100%. Vincent Smith ran a lot better because he didn't have to shoulder all (or most) of the load.
-The receivers had a very nice game (obviously). We don't have that one dominant reciever that we had in the past with Braylon or Manningham, but we might have as much depth there as we've had in a long long time.
-Hurry back Carl Grapentine. The substitute PA guy was awful.
-I think it's safe to cross Arizona off the list of teams that could possibly beat Oregon. They were dominated by Stanford and have to travel to Eugene in three weeks. After a game at Cal, who just won their first road game of the year at Washington State, this weekend, they get a bye, Arizona at home, and then must travel to Corvallis to play Oregon State. Interestingly enough, the Beavers have already played (and lost to) TCU and Boise State. The season ending tilt against the Nike Ducks might be the last chance those two teams have to reach the championship game.
-Another classic game in Baton Rouge. it's too bad they won't get a chance to play in the SEC championship game, because I think they might be the best team in the league.

Going through the motions

You'll have to excuse the lackluster blogging effort this week (i.e. late) after a lackluster game on Saturday. Ugh. What a stinker.

The offense was out of sync. Robinson forced his first pass of the day resulting in an INT. He fumbled several snaps and seemed to read a couple of zone read plays wrong. The O-line missed a few assignments, and there were a few missed cuts by the RBs. Still they racked up 550 some odd yards on 56 snaps. Even when out of sorts, this is a potent offense. Offense is not the problem.

Defense is. More specifically, linebackers are. Even my untrained eye saw Ezeh and Mouton make bad read after bad read. Give Umass credit, they ran a lot of misdirection , roll outs and short passes that put the onus on the LBs to make the right read. Time and again they didn't. What is scary is that there are several Big Ten teams that play exactly this style of offense.

That being said, I'm not sure this meager effort changes the big picture. Even with the defense of death, the offense appears to be good enough to win four of the remaining nine games. If the defense improves (i.e. they discover some new linebackers), we might see more wins.

This and That:
-A lot of fans will make a big deal out of a close game with an FCS team, but this really isn't any different than a basketball win over a mid-major. UMass, Villanova, James Madison, App State, these are the football equivalents of the Butler team that came within a few points of winning the Big Dance this year. Now Umass probably isn't as good as Butler was this year, but they were chalked full of seniors. had plenty of experience, and probably won't be the worst team we play this year.
-The thing that disappointed me the most in our game is that we didn't see any backups. Obviously some new prospects on defense might provide some hope, but I was also hoping to see the backup RBs. Still not convinced Shaw and Smith are the answer.
-What a call by Dantonio in the MSU/ND game. The amazing thing was that it wasn't open when the punter first stood up. He had to wait for his receiver to come open. I found it funny that Kelly, who is know for his gambling nature passed on a fourth and one in overtime, and Dantonio, who is considered conservative took the risk.
-Hope Dantonio recovers in time for the Michigan game. We should have known that something was wrong when he smiled in the post game interview.
-Not to look to far ahead, but the State game looks like it will be a barn burner. Two potent offenses, two poor defenses. I think this game is huge for Rich Rod. If he loses that game, I don't think he comes back next year.
-Only watched a little bit of the Iowa-Arizona game before I fell asleep, but man is Mike Stoops crazy on the sidelines. If you had told me Sunday morning that a college coach had a heart attack the night before, I would have guessed Stoops.
-Bo Pelini looks to have Nebraska rounding in form just in time for their move to the Big Ten. I would love to see them win the Big 12 this year.
-I wonder if the Pac 10 is having second thoughts about Colorado. First California routs CU 52-7, then the bears get blown out by Nevada 52-31. They've added a few teams and still can't beat the Mountain West.
-A new set of Golden Rankings coming in a day or so.

Warp speed ahead!

Photo - Michigan Daily

As I watched the end of the Boise State - Virginia Tech game on Labor Day night it occurred to me that the difference between the two minute offenses of Boise State and Virginia Tech embodies the struggles that many long-time Michigan fans are having in accepting the new Michigan offense. For the longest time, we had prototypical pro-style quarterbacks who like Boise's Kellen Moore could surgically take apart any defense with his passing even when everyone knew they had to pass. Now with a system that emphasizes a quarterback's running skills and athleticism more than his passing skills, I think many Michigan fans fear that we will be unable to run an effective two minute offense, just as Virginia Tech's Tyrod Taylor was unable to do at the end of the Labor Day game.

Among the multitude of amazing things Denard Robinson did on Saturday perhaps the most significant thing was to show those Michigan fans still uncomfortable with the new offense that just because he is not 6-4 with feet of clay doesn't mean he can't deliver in crunch time when everyone knows he needs to pass the ball. With the game on the line and 75 yards away from pay dirt, he went 5-6 for 55 yards and added 17 yards rushing with a fourth and one conversion and a touchdown rushing. Any doubting that he can be a complete quarterback is either not paying attention or is looking for reasons to complain.

The offense still has things to work on: the running backs have not been productive, the down field passing is inconsistent, and the propensity for bad penalties is gonna cost them at some point. Although last year taught us not to get to far ahead of ourselves, I think it is safe to say that baring some key injuries, this offense will be fairly productive.

The Defense? We won. Can't say too much more than that. They did appear to limit the ND rushing attack a little bit, but didn't get much pressure on the ND QBs and had some significant lapses in coverage. Cam Gordon took a couple of bad angles that led to two long ND touchdowns. Missed tackles were numerous, and the two inside LBs are about 50/50 to make the right read. We don't really know how good the ND offense is, but it's probably safe to say that the defense still has a long way to go to get to adequate. We won't discuss the special teams.

So big picture, where are we? One game closer to the seven wins we need to go bowling. I'd like to say this is better than a 7-5 team, but after last year, we know things can go south really quickly when the team has serious depth issues. Looking at the schedule, based on games played so far, there appears to be four teams that we would seem to be better than: UMass, Purdue, Bowling Green, & Illinois, five teams we don't have enough evidence to judge yet based on over matched opponents: Iowa, MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin, & Penn State (a loss @ Alabama doesn't prove anything major), and one team, Ohio State that appears clearly better than us. If I had to guess now, based on last year, Iowa and Wisconsin will join OSU in that last group, and Indiana will join the first group.

Some other thoughts:
-I'm sure you'll hear from negative nancies in the media and opposing fans how Denard won't survive the season carrying the ball 30 times a game and Michigan's offense will suffer if he goes down. While there is some truth in that, it's no more true for us than it is for any other team. Where would OSU be if Pryor went down? How's Florida doing so far without Tebow? Is a QB that carries the ball more likely to get injured than a RB who carries that much? I think that part of the negative reaction towards the amount of carries Denard gets has to do with that uncomfortableness with the offense we discussed above.
-I'm sure he got approval of the team doctors, but I wonder if Brian Kelly's decision to put Dayne Crist back in the game was a sound one. Crist's vision problems would seem to suggest a potentially serious concussion or head injury that would keep him out of the whole game. I'd hate to think that the decision to put him in was motivated by the horrible play of his backups, and you just hope that there are no lingering issues for Crist.
-Didn't see much of any of the other big ten games to draw many conclusions, other than the large white stripe on the MSU helmets looked bad and I wished we played Minnesota this year. What the heck Gophers? At least when we lost to an FCS team, we lost to the three time defending champs, not a .500 team that's only been playing Division one for four years.
-Bad day for the MAC. They went 2-5 in non conference play with two losses to FCS teams (Akron to Gardner Webb, Ball State to Liberty). The conference should really consider an en masse move to FCS.
-Almost equally bad day for the ACC, with losses to an FCS team (see below), a poor Kansas team, and big losses in marquee games by Miami and Florida State. They look to be a one bid league in terms of the BCS, yet again.
-USC looked fairly average. Pac Ten will be decided Oct 2 when Stanford visits Oregon. The amount of empty seats in Neyland Stadium midway through the fourth quarter was quite impressive.
-Biggest loser this week? Probably Boise State, whose "big" win over Virginia Tech became virtually worthless when the Hokies fell to FCS "power" James Madison. I can see another 12-0 season ending in a random BCS bowl game (but not "the" game) against TCU.
-The news on Friday that FCS power Villanova has been asked to join the Big East in football confirms what many have said for years -- the Big East doesn't deserve a BCS bid. Villanova currently plays in a 12,000 seat stadium, probably draws less per game than two other Philly area teams (Penn and Temple), and probably falls about ten spots down in the sports consciousness of the typical Philly fan. I know that UConn made a similar jump a decade ago, but they weren't really competing with anything else other than Husky basketball.
-On a final note, one of the all time greatest Wolverines, Ron Kramer, passed away on Saturday. I'd like to think he spent the afternoon watching the game with Bo, Yost, & Bob Ufer. Godspeed, # 87.

Bowl Math

After getting undressed on homecoming, we sat in the stands doing bowl math. That's when you go through the schedule and try and figure out where the six wins will come from to make us eligible for the the 33rd year in a row. What we came up with:
Sure Losses -- at Penn State, at OSU -- This is the year the streak ends for the Knitknees. Considering they lose almost all their starters next year, it better. And the trip to the Snakepit could get ugly.
Sure (as much as anything is sure in this year) wins -- Toledo, at Minnesota, at Purdue -- If we don't win all three of these games, we'll be home for the holidays.
Tossups -- Michigan State, Northwestern -- This is where the bowl push will be won or lost. Lose both of these, we go nowhere. Win both, we go bowling, maybe in the Alamo bowl, or the Champs Sports Bowl. Split these games, things get dicey. The bowl rules say that all 7-5 teams must be guaranteed a bowl spot for 6-6 teams to get a spot. The Big Ten has seven slots, including the BCS. Five Big Ten teams currently have 5 or more wins (Penn State, OSU, MSU, Northwestern, and Minnesota). The first four are likely to be bowl eligible, although never count out the ability of the Spartans to completely implode. 3-2 Illinois and 3-2 Wisconsin will both probably get to seven wins. That leave Minnesota, 2-3 Purdue, 2-3 Indiana, 3-3 Iowa and us fighting for that last Bowl bid. Now, if Ohio State and Penn State both end up with two or less losses, they are both likely to end up in the BCS, meaning there will be an extra bowl spot open. So at 6-6, we have a good shot at a bowl, but not a risk.
Will we get there? Good question. I think that MSU is a good match up for us, similar to Wisconsin. Power team with not much offensive diversity and serious questions in pass defense. Northwestern doesn't have the athletes the Spartans do, but they might have a better defense.

As for the game, not much to say other than Juice Williams. We stopped their zone running game fairly well, but just couldn't stop Williams running or throwing the ball. He has certainly grown as a QB. Last year you could count on him to make a number of bad reads and throws every game. This game he didn't. In short, he is exactly the type of QB I think Rich Rod would want for our system.
The offense was the same as it ever is, stop and start, very erratic. Occasionally flashes of what it could be, but mostly just missed plays. Throws off by a bit, routes run incorrectly, blocks not held long enough, etc.

From other games:
-Iowa flat out gave away the game in East Lansing. The Hawkeyes out gained the Spartans and held their all-everything uberback Javon Ringer to under 100 yards. But two endzone turnovers, another on their own 20 put the spartans up16-3 halfway through the third. Iowa rallied to 16-6, when Kirk Ferentz made the first of two ridiculously bad decisions with about 8 minutes left in the game. With a 4th and 5 at the MSU 15, he passed up the field goal which would have brought them to within 7 and went for it. The pitch play failed, and State took over. After Iowa scored again to make it 16-13, Ferentz again passed up a field goal to go for it on 4th and 2 at the MSU 20 with two minutes left and only one time out. When the off tackle play was stuffed for no gain, MSU took over and ran out the clock. If I were an Iowa fan, I would be livid. The decision to pass up the game tying field goal was inexcusable. Considering your five previous red zone trips had resulted in 6 points, you take the points whenever you can. For the Spartans, they need to find offense from someone other than Ringer, or he won't last the season.
-I was thinking that OSU looked beatable until that last drive. Yikes, let's hope Pryor actually starts to play like a freshman at some point this year.
-With apologies to MSU and Northwestern, I think the big ten is a three team race now: OSU, Penn State and Illinois. I know the Illini have that loss already, but I still think they can give the Buckeyes trouble.
-I wonder if any of the defensive coordinators in the Big 12 sleep at night. My goodness, Sam Bradford at OU has been near flawless, Texas Tech is still taking no prisoners, Texas' Colt McCoy has been scary good, Kansas can't fall behind far enough to stop it's offense from coming back, and i don't think Missouri has a punter on it's roster. The Tigers haven't had a 3 and out with the first string offense all year. Oh, and Oklahoma State has scored 223 points in their last four games!
-On that note, the next four games for Texas: OU, Missouri, Oklahoma State, @ Texas Tech. That's the #2,3,4 & 5 scoring offenses in the country.
-How bad has the year been for the Pac 10? Their second best team, Cal, got whipped by a team (Maryland) that got blown out by a team(Virginia) that got blown out by Duke.
-If Miami and Florida State played a football game in an empty stadium, would it make a sound?
-Golden Rankings out later this week, after the Wednesday game. Guess who's number one?
-Hey, I got a link from the UofM Alumni Association! Glad to see our donations going to good use.

Not this time

With about 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter and Notre Dame trailing Michigan State by nine facing a 3rd and 17 around their own 30, Irish QB JimmyClausen threw a quick out to Golden Tate, who was hit immediately by two MSU defenders. But the Spartans failed to wrap Tate up, and he got away for about a twenty yard gain. Two plays later a questionable 15 yard pass interference put ND inside the MSU 30. From my home in Ann Arbor, I could hear my spartan grad best friend in Chicago yelling at the TV. Visions of a deflected pass in 1990, a third string QB throwing a winning TD, and trying to run the spread in Hurricane Katrina must of been running through his head and the heads of spartan fans everywhere. Once again, it appeared for a brief moment, that MSU was in danger of losing a game to ND that they had basically controlled throughout, and that the Irish had no business winning. But luckily for State, this is not Ty Willingham's Irish team, and the Irish weren't able to take the game that MSU was trying to hand them.
-This game reinforced my thought that if we played the Irish ten times, we'd win six or seven of them.
-MSU needs to expand the playbook a little, or Javon Ringer won't last the season. As we learned last year with Hart, if you ride one player two much you run the risk of not having him.
-ND might make a bowl game, but without a real running game they won't be winning that game. Throwing it deep on every other play won't work against good teams.

Other thoughts:
-Thinking about the continued implosion of Pac-Ten teams not coach by Pete Carroll, I believe it illustrates the problems that are inherent to West Coast football, and why despite occasional flashes, they will have problems maintaining the level of football throughout the conference that is played in the SEC, Big 12, or even the Big Ten. Yes the Pac-Ten schools have a large population from which to draw players. But they have a lot of competition from which to draw fans. They traditionally do a very poor job of drawing fans. The Rose Bowl was barely half full for the UCLA- Arizona game yesterday. Despite their enormous success, USC was only 18th in average attendance last year, and are the only Pac Ten team in the top twenty in attendance in the each of the last five years. The SEC has had at least seven teams in the top 20 each year, the Big 12 and Big Ten 10 four each. This is why Pac ten teams play more big road games than any other power conference. When you don't draw much more than 60,000 fans to every home game, you aren't sacrificing as much giving up a home game. Compare that to Auburn, OSU and others, which clear more than $1 million in profit every home game. That's why three out of the four losses to Mountain West teams were road games for the Pac Ten. Additionally, they also don't have as much close-by out of conference competition as the other power conferences have. Thus you have long cross-country road trips that lead to sleepwalking type performances like the one we saw out of Cal at Maryland.
-Bill Stewart of West Virginia turned on of the worst coaching performances you'll ever want to see in their game with Colorado on Thursday night. First the team came out somewhat flat and allowed Colorado two early scores. On a number of occasions, the 'Neers punted on fourth and short inside the Colorado 40 instead of going for it. When they finally did go for it with about 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter, they chose to run a QB sneak that was stuffed for a one-yard loss, instead of running the zone read with Noel Devine and Pat White that gained them over 300 yards rushing. The game was tied with about 6 minutes left when WVU got the ball on their own 20. With two timeouts left, they ran the zone read with Devine and White over and over and moved the ball right down the field. With a minute and a half left, they were at the fifty and still had two timeouts. Still plenty of time to get into range for a game winning FG. They ran a quick out to Devine who didn't get out of bounds, ran a dive play that was stuffed, and didn't make any effort to stop the clock. When they finally used a timeout, there were only four seconds left, and they were on the Colorado 48. They ended regulation with a failed hail mary and one timeout left. In OT, they passed up a 4th and 1 and missed a chip shot FG and lost 17-14. Yes, this is the reason why they gave Stewart a five year extension. We can see why Rich Rod wanted out of there
-What the heck has happened to Rutgers? They lost to a very poor Navy team, and are starting to look more and more like Rutgers of old. Glad we dodged that bullet. If Schiano is not careful, he won't get that interview at Penn State when Paterno finally kicks the bucket.