Defense?!? We don't need no stinkin' defense!

I was lucky on Saturday in that I didn't watch most of our game in Bloomington live. Due to my son's soccer game starting at 3:45, I got a few updates during the first half, saw a little bit of the start of the second half at home, and then watched the final drive at a Pizza Hut surrounded by a bunch of hungry eight year-olds. Of course I recorded the game and was able to watch it later on in the evening. I could fast forward through much of the game when we were on defense. The funny thing is that it took me longer to fast forward through the Hoosiers 98 offensive plays than it did to watch Michigan's offensive plays twice.

The most interesting thing about the game, was that I think both coaching staffs came into the game thinking they couldn't stop the other team on offense. Indiana decided that they were going to be aggressive on defense, hoping to get some big negative plays and or turnovers. They slanted their d-line a lot, had their linebackers key on Denard, and occasionally bringing a safety up to the line. That resulted in a lot of single coverage on wide receivers, and no deep run support, which led to a lot of long plays on Michigan's part. The Michigan coaches, on the other hand, decided to play soft coverage (for the most part), hoping that by forcing the Hoosiers to dink and dunk their way down the field, they would eventually make a mistake. For the most part, Indiana did not make mistakes and held the ball for an impossibly long time. In the end, neither defense did anything to suggest that they will be anything other than putrid this year.

In that sense, I think this game probably reinforced most people's ideas of what Michigan's team will be this year. Those that were convinced that this year is just like last year will point to the 500 yards passing allowed against a traditional doormat of the league and proclaim that the tougher teams in the league will run up the score. Those that see this as a new year point to a second straight road win and the continual video-game like stats of Denard Robinson as proof that even when our defense is the dregs, we can still outscore anyone. I think that both viewpoints are valid. This is probably the worst defense in the big ten, and despite its youth, I'm not sure it will make any quantum leaps this year. At the same time there's a real chance that this is the best offense in the league. Everyone talks about Denard's obvious abilities, but the offensive line is monster, the TEs are good blockers, and the receiving corps might be the best in the league, both in receiving and in blocking. What this all means is that we are likely to see more shootout, last team with the ball wins type games.

Other random thoughts:
-One thing that will help our defense is the inherent conservatism in a lot of coaches in the league--Tressel, Ferentz, Paterno, and to a lesser extent Lt. Dan and the Madison Meathead are all "run or die trying" coaches. Our run defense is not stellar by any stretch of the imagination, but our pass defense is so porus that any time spent trying to establish the run is a wasted opportunity to beat our corners deep, or catch one of our linebackers trying to cover a TE. One or two wasted opportunities might be all our offense needs to win a game.
-I don't think the all-out blitzing, throw the kitchen sink at them approach will work with this defense, but I would like to see us disguise our coverages or vary things up a little bit. Playing 20 yards off the receivers every play seems like its asking to get picked apart. Throw in an occasional four man line, or a safety blitz. I noticed they played Mike Martin at DE a little against Indiana. Maybe moving him around some more, or bringing in other big bodies (Patterson, Will Campbell) on run downs will help against the caveman offenses.
-Having Brandon Herron back this week will help the pass rush, because it will allow us to move Craig Roh to his more natural position, DE on passing downs. It will also be good to get Carvin Johnson back, because I think he may be a little more physical than Thomas Gordon, although Gordan hasn't played that badly
- I don't know why LSU fans are complaining about Les Miles. They all want to go back to the days when they had a handsome, well dressed coach who always seemed to be in full control. But who's to say that if they got rid of Miles they wouldn't end up with another coach like the guy who came before the guy they're all pinning for. Maybe the norm for LSU coaches is not Nick Saban, but rather Gerry Dinardo. At least Les keeps the games interesting, and his press conferences are certainly more entertaining that anything Dinardo does on the Big Ten network.
-Lane Kiffin is an idiot. Up two with Washington driving, already in FG range with two minutes left, he decides not to use any of his three timeouts to give his offense time to respond, instead choosing to use two of them to ice the Washington kicker Eric Folk (who beat SC last year with a late FG) before his 32 yard attempt. Rats are gonna start jumping off that ship soon, if they haven't already.
-Gambler's Lament-Another exhibit why gambling on college sports is bad for your health was the Northwestern/Minnesota game. In our weekly College Pick'em pool (no money, just bragging rights), I had the Wildcats -5.5 @ Minnesota. Late in the game, with Minnesota leading 28-20, i flipped over to another game, figuring I was gonna lose this one. I flipped back a few minutes later to find that not only had Northwestern scored a TD, they'd missed the two point conversion, gotten the ball back and kicked a field goal. Now they were leading 29-28 and Minnesota had the ball with under a minute left. This game was toast for me, NU wasn't going to cover. But with just over 30 seconds left, with no timeouts left, Minnesota's QB threw it right to a Northwestern LB in the flat who broke into the clear and headed toward a pick six. Just about the time I jumped out of my seat, excited that I might actually get this pick right, the Wildcat linebacker realized where he was, realized that they didn't need to score and slide to the ground at about the 30. Good thing I didn't have any money on the game, or I might have been really pissed.
-More Golden rankings stuff later this week, and maybe if I find the time a post about the upcoming game with little brother.

Warp speed ahead!

Photo - Michigan Daily

As I watched the end of the Boise State - Virginia Tech game on Labor Day night it occurred to me that the difference between the two minute offenses of Boise State and Virginia Tech embodies the struggles that many long-time Michigan fans are having in accepting the new Michigan offense. For the longest time, we had prototypical pro-style quarterbacks who like Boise's Kellen Moore could surgically take apart any defense with his passing even when everyone knew they had to pass. Now with a system that emphasizes a quarterback's running skills and athleticism more than his passing skills, I think many Michigan fans fear that we will be unable to run an effective two minute offense, just as Virginia Tech's Tyrod Taylor was unable to do at the end of the Labor Day game.

Among the multitude of amazing things Denard Robinson did on Saturday perhaps the most significant thing was to show those Michigan fans still uncomfortable with the new offense that just because he is not 6-4 with feet of clay doesn't mean he can't deliver in crunch time when everyone knows he needs to pass the ball. With the game on the line and 75 yards away from pay dirt, he went 5-6 for 55 yards and added 17 yards rushing with a fourth and one conversion and a touchdown rushing. Any doubting that he can be a complete quarterback is either not paying attention or is looking for reasons to complain.

The offense still has things to work on: the running backs have not been productive, the down field passing is inconsistent, and the propensity for bad penalties is gonna cost them at some point. Although last year taught us not to get to far ahead of ourselves, I think it is safe to say that baring some key injuries, this offense will be fairly productive.

The Defense? We won. Can't say too much more than that. They did appear to limit the ND rushing attack a little bit, but didn't get much pressure on the ND QBs and had some significant lapses in coverage. Cam Gordon took a couple of bad angles that led to two long ND touchdowns. Missed tackles were numerous, and the two inside LBs are about 50/50 to make the right read. We don't really know how good the ND offense is, but it's probably safe to say that the defense still has a long way to go to get to adequate. We won't discuss the special teams.

So big picture, where are we? One game closer to the seven wins we need to go bowling. I'd like to say this is better than a 7-5 team, but after last year, we know things can go south really quickly when the team has serious depth issues. Looking at the schedule, based on games played so far, there appears to be four teams that we would seem to be better than: UMass, Purdue, Bowling Green, & Illinois, five teams we don't have enough evidence to judge yet based on over matched opponents: Iowa, MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin, & Penn State (a loss @ Alabama doesn't prove anything major), and one team, Ohio State that appears clearly better than us. If I had to guess now, based on last year, Iowa and Wisconsin will join OSU in that last group, and Indiana will join the first group.

Some other thoughts:
-I'm sure you'll hear from negative nancies in the media and opposing fans how Denard won't survive the season carrying the ball 30 times a game and Michigan's offense will suffer if he goes down. While there is some truth in that, it's no more true for us than it is for any other team. Where would OSU be if Pryor went down? How's Florida doing so far without Tebow? Is a QB that carries the ball more likely to get injured than a RB who carries that much? I think that part of the negative reaction towards the amount of carries Denard gets has to do with that uncomfortableness with the offense we discussed above.
-I'm sure he got approval of the team doctors, but I wonder if Brian Kelly's decision to put Dayne Crist back in the game was a sound one. Crist's vision problems would seem to suggest a potentially serious concussion or head injury that would keep him out of the whole game. I'd hate to think that the decision to put him in was motivated by the horrible play of his backups, and you just hope that there are no lingering issues for Crist.
-Didn't see much of any of the other big ten games to draw many conclusions, other than the large white stripe on the MSU helmets looked bad and I wished we played Minnesota this year. What the heck Gophers? At least when we lost to an FCS team, we lost to the three time defending champs, not a .500 team that's only been playing Division one for four years.
-Bad day for the MAC. They went 2-5 in non conference play with two losses to FCS teams (Akron to Gardner Webb, Ball State to Liberty). The conference should really consider an en masse move to FCS.
-Almost equally bad day for the ACC, with losses to an FCS team (see below), a poor Kansas team, and big losses in marquee games by Miami and Florida State. They look to be a one bid league in terms of the BCS, yet again.
-USC looked fairly average. Pac Ten will be decided Oct 2 when Stanford visits Oregon. The amount of empty seats in Neyland Stadium midway through the fourth quarter was quite impressive.
-Biggest loser this week? Probably Boise State, whose "big" win over Virginia Tech became virtually worthless when the Hokies fell to FCS "power" James Madison. I can see another 12-0 season ending in a random BCS bowl game (but not "the" game) against TCU.
-The news on Friday that FCS power Villanova has been asked to join the Big East in football confirms what many have said for years -- the Big East doesn't deserve a BCS bid. Villanova currently plays in a 12,000 seat stadium, probably draws less per game than two other Philly area teams (Penn and Temple), and probably falls about ten spots down in the sports consciousness of the typical Philly fan. I know that UConn made a similar jump a decade ago, but they weren't really competing with anything else other than Husky basketball.
-On a final note, one of the all time greatest Wolverines, Ron Kramer, passed away on Saturday. I'd like to think he spent the afternoon watching the game with Bo, Yost, & Bob Ufer. Godspeed, # 87.

Additional thoughts on last weekend

In no particular order:

-I think we've seen the last of Carson Butler as a starter. I'm guessing he didn't play in the game due to discipline reasons arising from his getting tossed out of the game in South Bend. Kevin Koger's emergence towards the end of the game might be just what Rich Rod needs to bench Butler for good.
-Mike Martin is going to be a beast. I've always liked to watch the D-line with by binoculars during the game, and he was just destroying double teams of a fairly good oline.
-Finally saw a crossing route from Odoms in this game. I would like to see more of this. I think it backs the linebackers out a little bit and makes the bubble screen and the zone read that much more effective.
-Bielema must really be kicking himself for not playing Travis Beckum the entire game. Despite his gaffe on the 2-pt conversion (he was the one who lined up wrong causing the illegal man down field penalty), he brings a dimension to this offense that was sorely missing. I'm guessing if he plays, they score more than 19 points in the first half.
-I know a loss like this is tough to take, but I don't think it really changes the season outlook for the Badgers. I still think the make the Rose Bowl if they run the table, there is no way Michigan escapes without a couple of losses. I don't think they had a reasonable shot at a national title, even if they were undefeated. This loss only means something if they can't rebound from it this week.
-This is getting to be pattern for USC: Finish with the top recruiting class in the nation, with twice as many 5-star players as the next team. Have more players drafted into the NFL than anybody else. Start the year ranked number one, or very close to it. Win a couple early non-conference games in impressive fashion. Become the unanimous number one team. Lose to a shitty Pac 10 team that has no business coming within four touchdowns of you. Win out, and watch some SEC team beat OSU in the championship game, when everyone in the country knows you are the best team in the country. Finish the year by beating an over matched Big Ten team in the Rose Bowl. Have all the pundits proclaim you as the team to beat for the next year. Rinse, rather, repeat.
-I never really thought Nick Saban was a good as everyone made him out to be. His teams at MSU were only slightly over .500 before his last year, his five year record there was only a couple games better than the first five years of his predecessor. I think he got somewhat lucky at LSU in that he got to play a national championship game against the #3 team, instead of the #1 USC. He was awful with the Dolphins. I always thought he was a good coach, but not the walk on water type he was portrayed as. I must admit, I am impressed with what is doing at Alabama this year. We'll see if they can keep it up, but if they do win the SEC west, I take back the negative things I've said about him in the past, except the part about him being the Larry Brown of college football.
-I'm not buying this Penn State Spread HD thing. Wait until they play a defense with a pulse.
-I hope that the BYU/Utah, BYU/TCU, and Utah/TCU all get the national TV audiences they deserve.

What stage are you in?

It's not quite what Elisabeth Kubler-Ross had in mind, but i've gone through
Denial(at the game - "this can't be happening"), Depression (the next day or two), Bargaining ("Maybe if we run the table, this will all be washed away") and am currently working on Anger (thanks to MGoBlog's UFR) I'll get to Acceptance sometime later, hopefully after a win or two.

Some other observations that got missed in the fallout from the "Upset of the Century"
-I would love to see the LSU/Va Tech game in person this week. Defense, defense, defense, with a modicum of special teams thrown in. After watching most of the LSU game, I'm not convinced that Matt Flynn will be able to handle the pressure of the Hokie pass rush. He looked like he got rattled against Mississippi State. Of course, with their defense, he won't need to do much to win. First team to ten wins.
-If Michigan had done what they were supposed to have done, I would have really enjoyed all the press jumping all over Weis E. Coyote, super offensive genius. He played all these games with his QB selection all summer, making a story where there really was none, and then they come out and look absolutely putrid (122 yards total offense in 63 plays). Defense wasn't much better. It will be interesting to see what contortions ND fans go through to blame this season on Ty Willingham.
-The worst performance by a top ten team this week? It might have been Texas, who had to hold on for dear life against another ASU, Arkansas State, who is projected to finished in the middle of the Sun Belt. Especially troubling is the paltry 117 yards rushing against a team that was 77th in the nation against the run. With a TCU team coming up this week that is 4-0 in their last four against Big 12 teams, they could be in trouble.
-I loved the tribute USC gave to their former kicker (HT: Various AOL Fanhouse bloggers). I think it shows why Pete Carroll is the best coach in the game today. He's like that younger teacher at your high school who had a good sense of humor, was friendly, and knew just enough popular culture to relate to kids. It's no wonder that all the top HS kids want to play for him.
-I know it's not wise to question the guys in Vegas too much, but there are a few lines this week I don't get. A couple of games we've already talked about as being tight games, UT-TCU and VaTech-LSU. Is Oklahoma really 11 points better than Miami? And the Michigan-Oregon line just seems off. The Ducks are getting 8? Can Michigan really score enough to win by 8 or more?

-One final thing, since everyone is talking about the next Michigan coach, I'll throw in my 2 cents. My top candidates at this point:
1) Jeff Tedford - good Xs and Os guy, some pro experience, head coaching experience in a BCS conference, Cal is a very similar school to Michigan. He's been frustrated with Cal's inability to get a stadium expansion done, Michigan's recent announced plans might be a draw.
2) Rich Rodiguez - Very innovative, the fact he listened to Bama last year shows he's available for the right price
3) Kirk Ferentz - Very good at teaching the fundamentals. Knows the UofM president, Mary Sue Coleman due to her time at Iowa, and has (or had) a daughter at UofM. Would he be willing to move in conference?
4) Greg Schiano - Great recruiter, good pedigree

I don't think that Les Miles will ever be offered the job. He desperately wants the job, anyone who pays attention to LSU football can tell you that. But there have long been rumors about character issues (he's referred to as "Loose Morals" by Michigan insiders), and I don't think that Bill Martin would take a chance with that. Especially since he's not really known as a great strategist, and his buyout at LSU (reportedly $2.1 million if he leaves to go to Michigan) might be cost prohibitive.

Top 10 Reasons Michigan belongs in the Title game over USC

June 19, 2008 Note: This is a post that originally appeared on Golden's Football Rankings and is reproduced here for posterity.

With apologies to David Letterman…
From the home office in Barberton, Ohio

10) “The Victors” is a better song than “Fight On”

9) Traveler won’t get along with OSU fans, he hates Pabst Blue Ribbon, and can’t stand the smell of Skoal

8) Against Notre Dame, Michigan scored more points (47-44), rushed for more yards (148-139), gave up fewer points (21-24), fewer total yards (273-404), fewer rushing yards (32-130), fewer passing yards (241-274), and forced more turnovers (5-1) on the road than USC did at home.

7) Space, bitches, Space

6)During the recent Notre Dame / USC game, Brent Musburger actually said that “The road to Glendale is paved with Trojans.” Apart from the obviously overstated hyperbole, which Brent seems to excel at, that is just a disgusting mental image.

5) Because Bo would have wanted it that way.

4) USC belongs in the Rose Bowl

3) Nobody cares about football in Los Angeles. At least not American football anyway. They’ll get more people at the Rose Bowl for the next Mexico / US “friendly” than they will for this weekend’s USC / UCLA tilt.

2) No second chance. USC had their shot at the championship, and they lost to Texas. They shouldn’t be voted in based on last year, or the year before.

1) Karma wise, the Trojans still owe Michigan for the phantom touchdown in the 1979 Rose Bowl.

(Florida? Pull-eez, no school that employed Ron Zook for more than 30 seconds deserves a title shot)

What USC and Notre Dame deserve

June 19, 2008 Note: This is a post that originally appeared on Golden's Football Rankings and is reproduced here for posterity.

-Ok, I have no argument with anyone who wants to cite USC’s resume for being in the championship game over Michigan, but the post game coverage on ABC and ESPN was ridiculous. In post game commentary, Lee Corso, Bob Davie, and Kirk Herbstreit, who is danger of losing his title as the world’s smartest OSU graduate (although he might just retain it for lack of competition), all stated that they felt the game wasn’t as one-sided as the score indicated, and Notre Dame had “earned” a Rose Bowl bid with how well they played. At the same time, they felt that USC was “clearly” the best one-loss team based on the win over Notre Dame.
-First of all, USC’s win over the Irish was virtually the same as Michigan’s. Both teams dominated Notre Dame. Michigan’s defense was more dominating, USC’s offense was more explosive. Michigan won on the road, USC at home. If you want to say the Trojans deserve the trip to Glendale on the basis of their strong non-conference schedule, or because Michigan had their shot at OSU, fine. But they don’t get the nod because they were more impressive against their one common opponent, they weren’t.
-Notre Dame didn’t “earn” a Rose Bowl birth. If they get a Rose Bowl birth, it will because the Rose Bowl thinks they will be a good draw, not because they scored a few cosmetic TDs at USC. I doubt that will happen. If the message boards are any indication, neither the Notre Dame or Michigan fanbases want a rematch, especially when they play in Ann Arbor next September. This is not like the Miami/Fsu rematch a few years back, neither of these teams are local. It is unlikely that either team will sell out their allotment of tickets.
-Assuming USC and Florida wins next week, the BCS bowls appear to be:
Champ: USC vs OSU
Rose: Michigan vs LSU
Sugar: Florida vs Notre Dame
Orange: ACC vs Big East
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs Boise State
-However, if USC and Florida lose, it could get very interesting. Right now LSU is #5 and Louisville #6 in the BCS rankings. Moving up two spots would guarantee both teams an at large bid. Combined with a Rutgers win over West Virginia, all four at-large bids would be locked up. In that situation, Michigan, LSU, L’ville and Boise would get the four at-large bids, leaving Notre Dame and Florida (as well as top 12 Auburn and Wisconsin) on the outside looking in.
-I wonder how much the downward direction of the Miami and FSU programs have to do with the emergence of new programs in the state of Florida. When their respective dynasties started in the late 70s and early 80s, Central Florida, South Florida, and FIU and FAU didn’t have football programs. Now these teams probably don’t compete for elite recruits, but they have probably diverted some of the lesser kids, and some fans and media attention away from the traditional big three.
-What a great turnaround for the Rice program. In early October they were 1-5, with four double digit losses, two by more than 40 points. Six wins later, they are on their way to their first bowl since the Kennedy administration. 1st year coach Todd Graham deserves some Coach of the year consideration.