We knew this would happen

At the start of the season I told myself, and anyone who would listen, that this was a 7-5 team, with five probable wins, five toss-ups, and two sure losses. So far this season we are 4-0 on the probable wins, 1-2 in the tossups, and just lost our first sure loss. So why is everyone so upset?

The truth of it is part of the reason that we all make predictions at the start of the season is to counter that overly-optimistic, ten-year old kid in all of us that is dreaming of ways we can go 13-0. As much as you repeat the more realistic prediction out loud, there's still that little voice saying "If we only get some solid safety play and we get some breaks, we could win it all."
When the season starts with an electrifying win, that little voice starts to get louder. After the Notre Dame win, and even after the close losses at MSU and Iowa, we started to believe that maybe we could win this game.

But the truth is any chance we had to be competitive in this game ended five plays into the game when David Molk went down with an ankle injury. We just don't have the talent right now on the defensive side of the ball, or the experience on the offensive side of the ball to be among the top teams in the Big Ten. Somewhere that ten-year kid is in mourning.

Bullets:
-The next two games are absolute must-wins. 7-5 with a mid-level bowl is progress for the program. 6-6 and a low-level bowl, or heaven forbid, 5-7 will be epic fail.
-If I have one complaint with the offense this year (other than general inconsistency and turnovers that come with two freshman QBs) it's the lack of a downfield passing game. Clearly, developing a pocket passing game with Tate Forcier has got to be one of the priorities for the off-season.
-Jordan Kovacs would be a halfway decent safety if he were just a step or 20 steps faster. Unfortunately, he's the only one we really have.
-Ok, let's see, two weeks ago Texas Tech beats Kansas State by 52. Last week Kansas State beats Texas A&M by 48. And this week, A&M beats Tech by 22? Gotta love college football.
-The MSU / Iowa game was an absolute snore fest for the better part of three quarters but turned into a classic big ten battle at the end. We got not one, not two, but three goal line stands, some questionable playcalls, a hook and lateral!, a missed fumble call, and a last second TD to preserve a perfect season (so far). Once they get past the gut shot nature of the loss, Spartan fans have to be happy with the direct of their program. The defense is much improved over the start of the season.
-My god is EMU horrible. Four and a half games after he went out for the season with an injury, QB Andy Schmidt is still the team's leading passer.

Depth Charges

More than anything else, games like yesterday's game against Eastern are about depth - developing depth by giving backups and second and third stringers a chance to play, and using depth to avoid the inevitable letdown that comes when you play a team you're expected to beat handily.

It's clear that we have developed the depth we need to be a championship team in some areas, but are still sorely lacking in others. We have as much talent at the offensive skill positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) as anyone in the league. The depth certainly helped yesterday. Tate Forcier had his worst game of the year. He missed a number of passes. Not Threet or Sheridan missed, but turn a 20 yard gain into a 5 yard gain type misses. A number of times he passed up a sure couple of yards trying to make a big play. It seemed pretty clear that he had read some of his press clippings this week and wanted to show that he was the newest superstar. As a result, our passing game was not nearly as efficient yesterday as it was the previous two weeks. In it's place was a devastating rushing attack. From the first snap, it was clear that Carlos Brown was going to have a great game. Eastern had no answer for his speed. Michael Shaw looked almost as good.

On the other hand, it's equally clear that we are nowhere near a championship level defense, and we are amazing thin there. With the Big Ten suspending Jonas Mouton just a day before the game, we were left starting a walk-on, Kevin Leach at linebacker. What's worse, he appeared to be the better of our two inside linebackers. Obi Ezah just seems lost out there at times -- tentative, slow, and consistently out of position. EMU basically had success with two plays, a sort of counter that sucked the linebackers into the line, before the RB bounced the play around the end, and a play action waggled that got the linebacker open crossing in front of the moving QB. Both plays really took advantage of the decision making of our linebackers. Given that poor play, I was disappointed to not see more of the backups once we got up big late in the second half. If backups like Kenny Demens, Brandon Smith, and JB Fitzgerald can't get playing time against Eastern, the chance of them helping later in the year is slim to none.

Bullets:
-Eastern may have provided the game plan to beat us this year -- run, run, run, play action to the TE. Keep our D on the field.
-Denard clearly has a long way to go at QB. He made a couple of bad reads that led to our two turnovers. But he has good arm, decent mechanics, and of course could turn off the light and be in bed before it gets dark. The bar is not very high for his passing competency. He only needs to be adequate at passing to make him a quarterback capable of moving the ball against good defenses.
-I was hoping to see more of the OL backups - Omaneh, Barnum, Khoury, Mealer.
-I hope Andy Schmitt is ok. He's a good QB, and Eastern really has no chance of having any sort of season without him. I was watching him with the binoculars when he went down, it looked bad. He planted and his knee buckled.
-There were a couple of spreads this week that looked like fool's gold. Unfortunately this fool only recognized one of the three before the games were played. What's the old saying, "It's not the Xs and Os, it's the Jimmies and the Joes." In college football, most times, talent wins. That's why OSU wins 10 or 11 games every year with the world's dullest offense. There were three games where the talent gap between the two teams seemed to be at odds with the spread:
1) BYU was favored by a touchdown over Florida State. While everyone focused on BYU's win over Oklahoma and how they executed, the truth is, even as much as the 'Noles have slipped in recent years, they still have a lot more talent than BYU
2) Oklahoma was only favored over Tulsa by 18. Everyone wondered if OU could recover from the loss of Sam Bradford. But remember that a program as good as OU always has talent waiting in the wings. Given a couple of weeks, It should have been obvious that Landry Jones (the backup QB) would be just fine.
3) Florida was favored by 30 over Tennessee. With all the hype about Kiffin's comments and conjecture about how much Florida would run up the score, we lost sight of the fact that Tennessee's problem in recent years hasn't been their defense, and that they still have a fair amount of talent, with a very good defensive coordinator, Monte Kiffin.
-Watching the Texas - Tex Tech game, it appeared to me that the new enclosed end of the stadium, which was only partially completed when we went there, makes a big difference in the noise level of the stadium. Perhaps I should attend another game there.
-I think that the end might be near for the USC "dynasty" They really looked quite mediocre against the Huskies and I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to Cal, UCLA, or even, gasp, Notre Dame. I think Carroll should really think about opening up the offense a little, there appears to be little imagination in what they do.
-Is it just me, or did it seem like Tennessee wasn't really trying to win the game against Florida, so much as just keep the score down.
-I didn't really see much of the MSU/ND game, but it looked very similar to our game against ND a week earlier, except that the absence of Michael Floyd hurt the Irish in the stretch run. I was kinda surprised how much the announcers were commenting on every penalty the Irish got. I think that they've bought into what Weis was trying to convey last week - they only lost to us because of the officials.
-The Arkansas / Georgia game was absolutely bonkers. Ryan Mallet is going to make opposing defensive coaches in the SEC sweat for three years. Of course the Razorbacks don't have enough other talent to win a title, but their games will be fun to watch.
-Ditto for the Fresno / Boise game on Friday night. Boise may have a great rushing attack and some good skill players, but they will get carved up when they play a BCS conference team on New Year's if they don't improve their rush defense. A lot. And why did Fresno keep kicking the ball deep, after giving up two kickoff returns for TDs (one that counted) and two other 60 plus yard returns? Pat Hill is vastly overrated as a coach. Did you realized that he has never won a conference title?

On lost teams, first games, and cajones of steel

-I couldn't help wondering as we left the game if we are going to get the two more wins we need to be bowl eligible. We looked sloppy and unfocused for a second straight game. Special teams breakdowns, missed tackles on defense, missed blocking assignments, fumbled snaps. This might be as undisciplined a team as Lloyd Carr has had. I really wonder if Lloyd Carr and the coaching staff has lost this team. That would certainly would explain the uninspired play and the numerous discipline problems (Manningham and Minor suspended for this game, Sears kicked off the team, the Fulmer Cup standings). On some level, the players may know that Carr is nearing the end of his career, and with the goal of getting back to last year's mountaintop gone, they have begun to drift a little in practice and during games. One can only hope that the combination of some senior leadership, the return of some injured starters and a string of challenging games ahead (minus Minnesota) can get them back on track.
-Stanford?!
-I felt a little better about our game next week when I watched some of the OSU-Purdue game. OSU is the best team in the league, but I expected they'd put up a little more of a fight. Purdue showed little if any running game, and Curtis Painter didn't show much mobility. Purdue runs a spread, but it's not the kind of spread that has hurt us. We have struggled against the spread option attack and in particular the zone read, where the QB and RB come together at the snap and the QB reads the defense and decided to either keep the ball or leave it in the RB's hands. I'm not saying Purdue won't move the ball on us, but I'm not as worried about an Oregon like beat-down.
-Wow, what a game down in Baton Rouge. Les Miles has cajones of steel. 5 for 5 on fourth down calls. He totally out coached the boy genius Urban Meyer. LSU, who had half an offense without any receivers who could catch the ball (Early can't return to soon), and who had real trouble slowing down the Florida offense early in the game, won the game on guts and the iron will of Mr. Miles. "What the mind can conceive..." and all that. The more I see of Les, the more I begin to like the idea that he might be our next coach.
-In fact how's this for a dream scenario: Lloyd announces his retirement right before the OSU game. The team goes out and knocks off the #2 Buckeyes and costs them a return trip to the National Championship, setting up a championship game between the top two candidates for the M job, Tedford and Miles.
-Seriously, Trojans.
-Florida at #14?!? Did any of these coaches watch the game in Baton Rouge? The Gators put up more of a fight than either South Carolina or Virginia Tech, both of whom are ranked ahead of them. Couple that with the fact that Tennessee, who they beat by three dozen earlier in the year just clobbered a ranked opponent by 21, and the Gators should be no lower than 10th. In fact, switching USC and UF might be just about right. I wonder if the Blogpoll will get it right.
-Notre Dame finally won a game, and nobody noticed.
-I bet there are SEC fans everywhere laughing their behinds off at the idea that Ron Zook could win a Big Ten championship. With games left against Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, and Ball State, they are looking at a potential 9 or 10 game season. Of course, given Mr. Zook's history, every surprising win is followed by an equally surprising loss and a couple of embarrassing off-campus incidents.
-Thanks to the BTN (F you Comcast), I have seen all of five minutes of MSU football this year (normally I see bits of pieces of just about every game), so I couldn't give you any elaborate thoughts on their loss to Northwestern, but everything I read after the fact makes it look like the more things change the more they stay the same in EL. Look for one more shocking win (please let it be in Columbus), and at least one more heart-wrenching loss.
-There were two good things about our game. The first was Mike Hart setting the record for most rushing yards by a Michigan back, and the almost two minute standing ovation he got when they announced it. As I've said before, highlights alone do not give you a full measure of what he has meant to this program in his four years. Without him, they easily could be under .500 in the last three years. We will miss him something fierce next year.
-This was the other good thing:

My five year old son attended his first game at Michigan Stadium. Yes he was more interested in the ice cream he got, playing with the binoculars, and making paper airplanes than the game, but he sang the fight song, gave us a hug and a high five when Michigan scored, and was constantly looking for "Mike" in every play (he heard us cheering for Mike Hart). All in all, a good first game. I look forward to many more.