Maize and Blue Matters

Golden Rankings, final regular season & playoff scenario

2010-12-06T02:06:00.003-05:00

Final Regular Season Golden Rankings

Instead of our usual metrics, we offer a playoff scenario based on these rankings. Our ideal playoff is quite simple - every conference champion gets in, so long as they are ranked 50 or higher among FBS teams in our rankings. The rest of the spots are filled by at-large teams with no limits on the number of teams from one conference. First round sites are on campus, but no at-large team is allowed to host a game, thereby preserving some of the pressure of the regular season.
Our auto qualifiers this year (with ranking):
SEC-Auburn (1)
MW - TCU(2)
B12 - Oklahoma (3)
Pac 10 - Oregon (4)
WAC - There was a three-way tie for the WAC, as Hawaii, Boise and Nevada all finished with just one loss. I couldn't find any official tiebreakers, so I went with the highest rated team, Boise (5)
Big Ten - Wisconsin (12) - Interesting that OSU and MSU are both rated ahead of the Badgers
ACC - Virginia Tech (15)
CUSA - Central Florida (29)
Big East - UConn (35)
MAC - Miami, O (49)
The Sun Belt loses their bid this year as conference champ FIU was 81st.
At Large teams -
Ohio State (6)
Michigan State (7)
Missouri (8)
Arkansas (9)
Stanford (10)
LSU (11)

The matches:
#16 Miami, Oh @ #1 Auburn
#9 Ohio State @ #8 Central Florida (as a conference champ, UCF moves up to host a game)

#13 Arkansas @ #4 Oregon
#12 Stanford @ #5 Boise -- might consider flipping this game with the 6/11 matchup to avoid a possible Oregon / Stanford 2nd round game

#14 LSU @ #3 Oklahoma (whoa Nelly!)
#11 Missouri @ #6 Wisconsin (Badgers moved up to host game)

#10 Michigan State @ #7 Virginia Tech (Hokies moved up)
#15 UConn @ #2 TCU

Wouldn't this be nice!

Golden Rankings, Week 13

2010-11-29T01:59:00.003-05:00

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Minnesota, up 23 spots with a Floyd of Rosedale win over free-fallin' Iowa
Biggest Loser (FBS): UL-Monroe, down 25 with a one point loss to rival UL-Lafayette.
Top Riser (FCS) : Western Illinois, up 19
Biggest Loser (FCS): Alabama State, down 30
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Notre Dame, Opponent average place in the rankings - 53.67
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Middle Tennessee 171.18
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Villanova 112.64
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Liberty 189.64

The Big 12 jumps ahead of the SEC in conference rankings:

Some Thanksgiving Thoughts

2010-11-26T01:15:00.002-05:00

I don't have much to say about the Wisconsin game last week that I didn't already say about the Iowa game or the MSU game. It was the same damn game. Offense makes key mistakes early and doesn't get started until its too late. No defense whatsoever, with Wisconsin basically naming its score without really using half of its offense. Special teams were awful (although I was glad to see we finally started attempting some onside kicks, we should do that after every TD against OSU), there were questionable coaching decisions (why is Gallon still returning kicks?), and once again we looked like we don't belong on the same field as an upper echelon Big Ten team. I don't see how this gets better anytime soon.
-Despite the clusterfuck that was the field arrangement at Wrigley Field (make it, take it? Did the dlineman have to count to five apple?) I liked the game. The crowd was into the game and close to the action, being close to an EL station really seeemed to help the atmosphere. I hope they figure out the field configuration and make it an annual event.
-Terell Pryor might be the most talented player in the conferense, but he is probably one of the dumbest. His comments about Herbstriet being "a fake buckeye" on tweeter might be as stupid as his "everybody murders" quote from earlier this year. No one has done as much to promote the OSU program in the last ten years as Herbstreit, all the while maintaining his "impartiality". I'm guessing that Pryor will be about as successful in the NFL as another former buckeye star, Maurice Clarett.
-I'm not exactly a Nebraska fan, but I thought they got pretty screwed at Texas A&M on saturday. 17-3 penalty margin? Five personal fouls including a pretty weak roughing the passer call that kept alive A&M's winning drive? Right.
-Another year, another Virginia Tech appearance in the ACC championship game. Is there another team that has dominated their league so thoroughly and so quietlythe last five plus years?
-I know it's "just Fresno", but I found Boise's 51-0 win on Friday impressive. Fresno had been averaging almost 35 points a game (they scored 38 at Ole Miss) and Boise completely shut them down. I'm still hoping for Auburn and Oregon losses to give us a Boise / TCU national championship game.
-OSU President Gordon Gee's comments about Boise and TCU were sickening. Gee has proven in the past that he's not exactly a football expert. In 1992 he called a 13-13 tie between OSU and Michigan "the greatest victory in OSU history". While at Vanderbilt, he eliminated the athletic department and combined it with the department of student affairs. So why is this confirmed football neophyte speaking out about the worthiness of Boise and TCU's schedule? He's trying to protect his school's assets. He, like all the presidents of the power conferences, realizes that he needs to do whatever he can to protect the status quo and the economic inequity in the sport. Why are BCS conference presidents so opposed to a playoff that many say would bring in more money than the BCS? Because that money would spread out among all 11 conferences, and the power conferences would lose their huge monied advantages.
-Bowl eligibility watch: 35 bowl games, 70 teams needed to fill slots. 65 teams currently have six or more wins. 12 other teams are 5-6 or 5-5. 4 teams are 4-6 with two games remaining.

Golden Rankings, Week 12

2010-11-22T01:04:00.000-05:00

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Notre Dame and Western Michigan, both up 24 places. The Irish became bowl eligible with a win over Army. Western beat Kent State at Home
Biggest Loser (FBS): Army, down 22 with the loss to Notre Dame. Kinda unusual for the biggest winner and biggest loser to come from the same game this late in the season.
Top Riser (FCS) : Tennessee Tech, up 23
Biggest Loser (FCS): UMass, down 37
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average place in the rankings - 54.40
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Middle Tennessee 169.80
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Savannah State 113.11
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Liberty 187.14

No changes in conference rankings:

Golden Rankings, week 11

2010-11-17T00:08:00.002-05:00

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Florida International, up 30 places with a win over Sun Belt stalwart Troy
Biggest Loser (FBS): Oregon State, down 35 after an embarassing loss at home to Washington State
Top Riser (FCS) : Texas Southern, up 35
Biggest Loser (FCS): Cal Poly, down 51
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average place in the rankings - 49.44
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Middle Tennessee 168.00
Toughest Schedule (FCS): James Madison 108.00
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Liberty 189.40

Conference rankings show the SEC jumping ahead of the Big 12 into the lead:

It's just a jump to the left...

2010-11-14T00:54:00.003-05:00

Saturday's game at Purdue felt so much like something out of the mid-90s that I almost checked at halftime to make sure I had a tape in the VCR recording the game: Maddening offense that alternated between effective, and bleech; defense that looked adequate against a Purdue offense that couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat; bad weather that chased most of the normally sparse Boilermaker crowd; a gaggle of turnovers for both teams; and just enough points to win an ugly, ugly game. It was definitely not a thing of beauty, but given the way the last three years have gone, we'll take any win we can get.
- It was nice to see the defense play well, but I'm not sure we can read anything into this game, it looked like Purdue shot itself in the foot time and time again. I'm not sure they had a QB on the roster who could throw the ball more than 20 yards. The next two(three) offenses will face will bear no resemblance to this one.
-Denard is continuing to make bad decisions in the passing game. It's funny that a guy who is such a good runner seems unwilling to tuck it and run instead of trying to force a pass.
-Had an interesting conversation with my 8-year old son during the game. After Michigan scored late to go up 11, he announced, "We can't lose this game now, we're gonna win." Being a grizzled college football I get superstitious about things like that, so I said, "I wish you hadn't said that"
"Why Not?"
"Because you could jinx us"
"But we're still going to win aren't we?"
"Well, you never know what's going to happen, so you don't announce that we're going to win until it's a sure thing"
"But I'm sure we're going to win."

I guess he's just have to suffer some sort of catastrophic loss to understand the superstition of a veteran fan.
-Weird day in the Pac Ten - Cal almost beats Oregon, ASU almost beat Stanford, and Washington State wins their first conference road game since 2007.
-There is probably gonna be a few people who will get unfairly punished in the whole Cam Newton saga. None of them are from Auburn. Based on what we've heard, I tend to think that Newton was probably bought and paid for. I don't think Miss. State would've reported any of this if they didn't feel they had to protect their interests. That suggests that some, if not all of what they are reporting is true. I don't buy the idea that Newton (or his dad, or a representative for his family) would have asked MSU for money, and not Auburn. Even if they didn't ask Auburn for money, there is no way that Auburn would have taken a kid kicked out of Florida (how bad do you have to fuck up to get kicked off a Gator team that is considering replacing their defensive coordinator with a defense counsel?) without learning absolutely everything about him. Auburn probably knew Newton was looking for a handout and knew that would make him ineligible. They probably knew about his academic cheating episodes at UF. That alone would have made him untouchable at any school where the idea of a student athlete is not a joke. They choose to take him anyway, and probably paid to do so. They and Newton deserve any punishment they get.
-Another interesting item about the Newton thing is the reports of the FBI being involved. I don't think the FBI would get involved unless there were some more serious crimes involved. The FBI was involved in the Michigan basketball thing ten years ago because the main figure in the whole affair was running an illegal numbers scam at an area Ford plant. I wonder if Auburn uber-booster / trustee Bobby Lowder is being investigated for something more serious. If so, Cam Newton's eligibility might be the least of Auburn's worries.
-Gotta admire the consistency of the Grambling Tigers. Their last five games they've scored 38, 35, 35, 35, and 34 points. Unfortunately in that last game they gave up 41 to Texas Southern, which cost them the SWAC title.
-The FCS playoffs expanded to 20 teams this year. There are 123 FCS teams, and several leagues (SWAC, Pioneer, Ivy) that don't participate in the playoffs. There are 120 FBS teams. If the NCAA were to sponsor a playoff for the top division of college football, the likelihood that it would be limited to four, eight or 12 teams seem slim. Just like the basketball tournament, it would eventually expand to the max allowable size.

Golden Rankings, week 10

2010-11-13T09:13:00.002-05:00

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Louisiville, up 40 places with a win over Syracuse (who would've though Syracuse would be anybody's "big" win?)
Biggest Loser (FBS): Colorado, down 30 (Go play intermurals, brotha!)
Top Riser (FCS) : Alabama State, up 30
Biggest Loser (FCS): Villanova, down 33 (Big East here we come!)
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average place in the rankings - 49.11
Weakest Schedule (FBS): UTEP, 155.40
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Savannah State 97.14
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Liberty 192.44

Conference rankings show the Big 12 leading the way with the SEC jumping back into second:

Who needs defense?

2010-11-07T01:11:00.013-04:00

Lon Horwedl / annarbor.com

One of the reasons I enjoy having football season tickets is that even in the midst of disappointing seasons you get these moments and games that are pure magic. In the middle of our first rose bowl less season in four years, 1979, we got Wangler to Carter, the greatest play in the first 100 years of Michigan football. In the middle of the Year of Infinite Pain, 2005, we got Manningham's dagger in the heart of Penn State. Even the awful 3-9 2008 campaign produced a comeback for the ages against Wisconsin.
That's what saturday's game was. Put aside all the disappointment from the last three games, all the concerns about the defense, all the speculation of will he stay? or will he go? and just enjoy an entertaining game. It was interesting that we heard little if any booing during the game. Sure there were no shortage of sarcastic comments or cheers, including a hearty round of "Save your job, Save your job" during the first overtime, but there wasn't the booing or "We want Harbaugh" chants we heard at the iowa game. Maybe the first play TD strike to Roundtree placated the fans a little. Or maybe we've just moved past the anger and depression stages of grieving for our defense and moved on to acceptance. Illinois just scored on a 60 yard run. So what? We know our defense sucks, when's the offense coming back out on the field?
Long ago, when I was much younger and was particularly down that my plans in life didn't seem to be working out, a good friend told me, "If you can't figure out a plan for life, just figure out a plan for today." So we take this approach going forward - the big picture will take care of itself, we will focus on each game, trying to get as much enjoyment out of the four(!) remaining Michigan football games as we can and worry about the big picture items later.
Other thoughts:
-Any doubts the last three games might have created about this offense were emphatically erased by this game. The Illini were the #15 defense in the country and hadn't given up more than 26 points in any game this year, despite playing three top ten teams, Missouri, OSU, and MSU. We got that in a half. The hadn't given up more than 390 yards in any one game this year, we got 386 in the first half. There is no doubt that as long as Rich Rod stays here, we will have one of the best offenses in the country.
-Despite the massive numbers, I acutally thought there were signs of progress on defense. Craig Roh is much better as a Dlineman than a LB. Courtney Avery palyed well, and made a good open field tackle on a player that was very similar to the one against Iowa that he missed and allowed them to get their last field goal. Finally, I think Cam Gordon is a better fit at the Spur position than at safety because of his size.
-I loved the reverse on the kickoff but don't understand why Jeremy Gallon is allowed to continue to return kicks after he fumbles one. I also think that we should be onside kicking every once an a while. With our defense, the opposition can (and will) score from almost anywhere. Why not take a chance on getting the ball back? If they are going to bring in new defensive coaches, they should consider finding one or two who have experience coaching special teams.
-I hope Tate Forcier realizes how important a good backup QB is in this offense. At the start of the year, all the buzz was about Denard and how he was a one man offense. In this game (and to a lesser extent the Iowa game), Tate showed that this offense is lethal no matter who is pulling the trigger. If he comes back next year, we will have the best QB situation in the country.
-Nice to see Michael Shaw back at something approaching 100%. Vincent Smith ran a lot better because he didn't have to shoulder all (or most) of the load.
-The receivers had a very nice game (obviously). We don't have that one dominant reciever that we had in the past with Braylon or Manningham, but we might have as much depth there as we've had in a long long time.
-Hurry back Carl Grapentine. The substitute PA guy was awful.
-I think it's safe to cross Arizona off the list of teams that could possibly beat Oregon. They were dominated by Stanford and have to travel to Eugene in three weeks. After a game at Cal, who just won their first road game of the year at Washington State, this weekend, they get a bye, Arizona at home, and then must travel to Corvallis to play Oregon State. Interestingly enough, the Beavers have already played (and lost to) TCU and Boise State. The season ending tilt against the Nike Ducks might be the last chance those two teams have to reach the championship game.
-Another classic game in Baton Rouge. it's too bad they won't get a chance to play in the SEC championship game, because I think they might be the best team in the league.

Golden Rankings, Week 9

2010-11-04T02:45:00.002-04:00

Golden Rankings for Week Nine

Some surprises in the rankings, with Missouri not moving much despite getting blown out, and Oregon ranked below a number of one loss teams. The explanation for the surprises lies in schedule strengh. Missouri's loss was mitigated by wins by San Diego State, Illinois, and Oklahoma, teams they built. Oregon's win over USC was only their second of a team with a winning record.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Louisiana-Monroe, up 33 places with a win over Troy
Biggest Loser (FBS): Navy, down 32
Top Riser (FCS) : Yale, up 27
Biggest Loser (FCS): Chattanooga, down 47
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average place in the rankings - 49.50
Weakest Schedule (FBS): UTEP, 161.22
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Sacramento State 100.71
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Butler 193.43

Conference rankings show the Big 12 leading the way with the Big Ten second and SEC third:

Dead Coach Walking?

2010-11-02T00:47:00.003-04:00

It's not possible to overstate just how incredibly bad the Michigan defense played the night before Halloween. A team that was averaging 109 yards rushing per game got 109 in the first half. A team that had been averaging 344 yards of total offense got 435. A team that had been out gained by 80 yards by the hapless Minnesota Golden Gophers out gained the vaunted Michigan offense. A team that had been averaging 20 points per game, scored 41 and ended the game by taking a knee inside the Michigan five-yard line. And they did this with a third-string walk-on QB and a patchwork offensive line, and without the aid of any turnovers.
This offensive explosion from a team that has one of the worst offenses in the league, when healthy, came on the heels of a series of position moves during the bye week that were eerily similar to the changes in the defense made before the Purdue game in 2008, when Michigan played a 3-3-5 for the first time all year and a backup running back turned QB torched Michigan for a bazillion yards and more points than Purdue had scored all year. Just like that game, the Michigan defenders looked lost, and constantly out of position. It was a coaching failure of the highest order. It has become clear the Rich Rod knows only slightly more about defense than I do, and doesn't have the faintest clue how to go about teaching it to young players. Which is really a shame, considering he knows more about the spread offense than anyone coaching today. We have the worst defense in the league, and the best offense.

So was this game the tipping point for Rich Rod? Depends on who you ask. Some were ready to get rid of him when he quoted the Lion King at his opening press conference. For some it was the loss to Toledo. For the first time, I think, more than 50% of the fanbase think its time for a change. For me it was the MSU loss this year, although it took until this game for me to accept it. Although I recognize the beauty of his offense and know that if he stays we will have an Oregon like offense if not next year than the year after it, I can't get past the lack of any defensive fundamentals, the poor personnel decisions (Marell Evans anyone?), and the complete tailspin they've gone in for three straight years. There is still time to turn this season around, but we've seen no evidence that Rich Rod's teams are capable of that.

Other random thoughts:
-Mark Dantonio showed his true stripes (win-at-all-costs), I'm glad the mainstream media is finally picking up on that. Hey Mark, if you want to be a father figure to these kids (your words, not mine), try acting like a father. If you tell a kid the consequences of bad behavior is a certain punishment, and then you don't follow through with the punishment when they do that bad behavior, they learn not to listen to you, or believe you when you tell them there will be dire consequences if they mess up.
-How the hell did Texas beat Nebraska?
-All of a sudden, West Virginia has fallen off the map. I wonder if they might be willing to take Rich Rod back? Maybe we could work out a sign and trade.
-That Iowa collapse against Wisconsin last week is looking like it might be the pivotal game in the Big Ten race this year. Iowa looked very good against MSU and has a decent chance of beating OSU in two weeks. But even if they run the table, if Wisconsin also runs the table, they are out of luck for the Rose Bowl.
-Tulsa? Seriously, Tulsa?!? Is this why you decided to stay an independent?
-The story about the Notre Dame student killed while filming football practice is tragic, and his tweets were especially haunting. This accident is gonna cost the university a ton of money, and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of heat comes on Brian Kelly because of it.
-The Cal scoring streak continued, blows out teams at home, gets blown out on the road - they lost at Oregon State 35-7. They travel to Washington State, so a continuation of the trend would be quite shocking. They close the season with home games against Oregon, Stanford, and Washington.

Golden Rankings, week 8

2010-10-26T23:38:00.002-04:00

Rankings for this week:

As was to be expected, the two winners in the big showdowns last week, Auburn and Missouri find themselves at the top of the heap, followed closely by three of the other five remaining unbeaten FBS teams. Interestingly enough, Oregon, who I think most people feel is the best team in the county is a few places back, due to their weak schedule so far. They've only played one team with a winning record, Stanford. A win at 5-2 USC might help their case a little bit this week.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Clemson, up 35 places with a win over Georgia Tech
Biggest Loser (FBS): Texas, down 35 after a dismal loss to Iowa State
Top Riser (FCS) : Arkansas Pine-Bluff, up 52
Biggest Loser (FCS): Colgate, down 46
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington State, Opponent average place in the rankings - 45.25
Weakest Schedule (FBS): UTEP, 161.25
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Sacramento State 91.83
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Hampton 191.83

Conference rankings show the Big 12 leading the way with the Big Ten and SEC swapping second and third place:

Bye Week This and That

2010-10-24T23:17:00.003-04:00

In no particular order:
-Raise your hand if you wrote down Missouri, Oregon, Auburn and Michigan State at the start of the year as the last remaining unbeatens from the BCS conference. Liar.
-If there are any Rich Rod critics out there who still believe that his offense "won't work on a big stage", please note that three of those four teams run versions of his offense. That and the fact that Northwestern has run the offense successfully for ten years with less talent than just about anyone in the league. His problem ain't offense, it's everything else.
-I didn't see any of the MSU/Northwestern game, and only heard a few minutes of it on the radio as we were running errands, but it seems to me that road wins against winning conference teams where you come back from a 17-0 deficit are one of the requirements for a championship season.
-MSU can almost print their tickets for Pasadena. With Iowa's loss to Wisconsin, the spartans can afford to lose one of their remaining four games and still win the league title. Even if they lose to the Hawkeyes next week, they can still win the title if OSU beats Iowa, or if MSU, Iowa, & Wisconsin all finish with one loss. Even if you throw OSU in there and make it a four way tie, MSU still gets the Rose Bowl bid. All the Spartans have to do is beat Purdue and Minnesota at home and Penn State on the road and they get their first Rose Bowl in 23 years. It would take an epic collapse to miss out on a BCS bowl. While "epic collapse" and "Michigan State" have gone together like the Captain and Tenile for the better part of the last 40 years, that trend has reversed itself the last three years, as they have found a way to win important games down the stretch in each of Dantonio's first three years.
-Of course, if they win in Iowa City on saturday, they may miss the Rose Bowl by getting invited to the BCS championship game. They may get to play Boise State sooner than they planned.
-It seems that the best LSU QB changes from week to week, depending on who's starting, with the best player always being the guy who comes off the bench.
-What the hell has happened to Texas? I understand them having an off year (they've won ten or more since 2001, and haven't won fewer than 9 since 97), but losing to Iowa State? At home? Maybe Mack Brown has checked out, but you'd figure they have enough talent to overcome whatever is ailing them against Iowa State in Austin. They might be an underdog this week at home against Baylor. I'm pretty sure that's one of the signs of the apocalypse.
-The SEC East is starting to look like a typical year in the ACC, where all teams finish between 5-3 and 3-5 in conference. I wonder if Urban Meyer is regretting his decision to come back. Can they fire Mark Richt if he wins the SEC East at 5-3? I think Derek Dooley had more wins over SEC teams when he was at La Tech then he does at Tennessee.
-Like offense? Try watching the Cal Golden Bears. So far this year they've scored 52 against UC Davis, 52 on Colorado, given up 52 to Nevada, scored 35 on UCLA, given up 48 to USC, and just this week scored 50 on Arizona State. They're scoring 35 points per game and haven't played the two worst scoring defenses in the Pac Ten, Washington State and Oregon State. They haven't played the top two offenses, Oregon and Stanford, either.
-This weekend was about as bad as possible for us on a bye week. All five of the teams we've beaten this year were beaten this week, some in blowout fashion - IU by 30 to Illinois, Notre Dame by 18 to Navy, UConn shutout at Louisville, 26-0, BGSU losing by 24 to Kent State. Strength of schedule really doesn't matter too much to a team nowhere near the BCS, but the fact that Umass was beaten 39-13 by a 5-3 New Hampshire team really doesn't me a lot of confidence about the season going forward.

Golden Rankings, week 7

2010-10-21T02:11:00.005-04:00

More than halfway through the year, time to reveal our first full Golden rankings:

For an explanation of the ranking system, check out the original site of the rankings. Our rankings differ slightly from his, with the main difference being the inclusion of FCS teams and discounted values for wins over FCS teams based on the overall FCS vs FBS record.

Not surprisingly the top of the poll is dominated by unbeaten teams. For the first time that I can recall, four of the top five teams play each other this week as LSU visits Auburn, and Oklahoma visits Missouri.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, we've added a couple of new columns to our chart - offensive average and defensive average. This is a measurement of how teams do scoring wise in relation to the averages of the teams they are playing. So for example, our #1 team Oklahoma is scoring 13.2 points more per game that their opponents usually allow, and are allowing 8.8 points less per game than their opponents normally score.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - UAB, up 60 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): UTEP, down 46
Top Riser (FCS) : South Dakota State, up 46
Biggest Loser (FCS): Texas State, down 68
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington State, Opponent average place in the rankings - 46.71
Weakest Schedule (FBS): UTEP, 173
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Charleston Southern 88.75
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Southern 211.5

Conference rankings show the Big 12 leading the way with the Big Ten holding off the defending champ SEC:

Stop me if you've heard this one before

2010-10-21T01:08:00.008-04:00

Michigan comes out fired up, makes a defensive stop or two and takes the lead. Opponent comes right back down the field and scores and then continues to score throughout the second and third quarter. Michigan scores in the fourth quarter, but its too little to late. Michigan offense gains lots of yards, but is undone by turnovers. Michigan defense looks good in spots, but fails to make the stop at the key moments. Yes, this game looked a lot like the MSU game, and further reinforces what we have thought for several weeks now -- this team is not quite ready for prime time. The defense is still far too weak to be counted on to stop any team that is trying to score. Poor positioning, poor tackling, or just poor recognition - they simply don't have enough talent to be successful. The offense has also shown its youth in the last two weeks with costly turnovers, ridiculous penalties and an inability to make clutch plays. And special teams (other than punting) is still a weight on the offense.
Still, there were some positives:
-Tate's play (other than the two interceptions) was encouraging, and opens up the possibility of bringing him in future games as a change of pace when Denard is struggling.
-Kenny Demens looked better than horrible in place of Obi Ezeh. Hopefully his play against Iowa effectively ended Ezeh's playing time for the year.
-522 yards is a lot of yards to gain on a top ten defense. It does lend some credence that if (and that's a big if) turnovers can be cut down, this offense can duplicate some of their early season domination.
-The defensive and offensive lines played decently considering that David Molk and Mike Martin missed most of the game.
-The receivers looked good, especially in the fourth quarter. I think it's clear that most of them react better to Tate as a passer than Denard.
-Zoltan, Jr!
-Crowd was really into the game, especially during the mini-comeback in the fourth quarter. After the game, Iowa players reported troubles hearing audibles.

Of course, watching them shoot themselves in the foot for the second straight week has led to a lot of grumbling about Rich Rod and a lot of discussion about his future here. Towards the end of the game, there were chants of "We want Harbaugh" audible in the sections near us. Personally, I'm not ready to kick him to the curb just yet. There are still five games to be played, and there have been enough positive signs to suggest that a winning conference record is not far fetched. Unlikely, maybe, but not impossible. So I will reserve final judgement for at least two more weeks.

Thoughts on other games:
-The Wisconsin / OSU game was surprising so much because the Badgers, but rather for the way they won - by imposing their will on the Buckeyes and ramming the ball down their throat. I'm not surprised that the OSU offense stalled because they've looked rather pedestrian at times this year, but I didn't think Wisconsin would score over 30, when they only scored 20 against Arizona State at home.
-OSU's loss really helps MSU. If Iowa loses to Wisconsin this week, MSU has a one game margin over everyone in the conference, and can almost afford a lose in their toughest game left, in Iowa City. Of course, MSU has yet to play outside of the State of Michigan, and I wouldn't be surprised if Northwestern gives them a scare. Still, they are looking good for a New Year's day bowl, at least, if not a BCS bowl.
-I think we are heading for a TCU-Boise national championship game. The SEC undefeateds both have to play Alabama and each other. Oregon still has tough games with USC, Washington, Arizona and Oregon State. Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State all play each other, along with games against Nebraska and Texas. Finally, MSU still has to go to Iowa City. If Boise and TCU run the table, they will each be 37-1 in the last three years. Meanwhile, some other BCS bowl will feature a game that will be hyped as the "real" national championship game (Alabama/OSU in the Sugar, perhaps).

Things have changed

2010-10-12T21:05:00.003-04:00

For the last 40+ years with Michigan football, there have been a lot that you could count on - basic offense, solid defense, 8 or 9 wins most seasons, a team that improved as the season progressed, a bowl game every year, and being the better program than Michigan State. Sure there were years that MSU beat us, but we almost always finished with a better record, and only most ardent spartan supporter would argue that MSU was gonna be the better team in any given year. All of that has changed. Not only was MSU the better team on Saturday, it's clear now that they've become the better program. They've become the team that seems to be greater than the sum of its parts, while we've become the team that can't get out of its own way.
Now the spartanistas have been telling us since the day before Lloyd Carr retired that "things had changed", but you'll have to forgive wolverine fans who had seen the sun set in the west all their life if they had a hard time believing it was going to start setting in the east. Now after watching our team get depantsed three straight years, we're starting to get it.
How did this happen? Some credit goes to Mark Dantonio who has done a decent Jim Tressel impersonation by focusing on a rivalry game, simplifying the offense, recruiting the state of ohio hard, and conveniently ignoring criminal activity from key players (I kid, I kid). But mostly this is a case of Michigan's program falling to new found depths and continuing to look unlike anything we've ever seen in the winged helmets. As time goes on, it's getting harder and harder to excuse Michigan's poor defense as an accident or as an unfortunate set of circumstances. And as time goes on without any apparent improvement it getting harder and harder to believe that all it will take for improvement is time or more in-game experience.
Where does this game leave us from a season perspective? Well, the wild dreams of a big ten title are gone. A win over a good Iowa team might revive thoughts of a New Year's Day bowl, but likely this is still a 7-5 team that will have to fight to make it to a bowl. The good news is that they might not face another offense as balanced as MSU all year. Of course, it doesn't take much offense to beat our defense to a bloody pulp, and five of the six remaining teams have defenses that are statistically better than States. The season, I think, will come down to a three game stretch - at Penn State, Illinois, at Purdue. 3-0 or 2-1 they go bowling, 1-2 or 0-3, they stay home, and the search for a new coach likely begins.

Golden Rankings, defensive averages

2010-10-08T02:00:00.003-04:00

We still wait on the Golden team rankings for another week, but as promised, this week will we look at the defensive team rankings. As you may recall, we modified the rankings this year to enter in both scores for each game, instead of just the margin, allowing us to calculate the average points and points allowed for each team, and to measure a team's offensive an defensive performance in each game in relation to their opponents averages. Last week we looked at the top offenses, this week we look at defenses. These are the top ten (11) teams in holding their opponents under their average points per game. Remember that these numbers are the average amount these teams' opponents are scoring under their yearly average.

1)James Madison -- 18.6 -- the slayer of Virginia Tech has only allowed 39 points in four games to teams that are scoring 28 points per game. Granted Liberty and Morehead State are not powerhouse, but this is still impressive, especially considering the Hokies scored 30 on Boise State and 41 on NC State.
t2)Illinois -- 17.4 -- This is what happens when you hold one of the top scoring offenses in the county (OSU) 20 points under their season average.
t2)Arizona -- 17.4 -- This average seems a little more sustainable than the top two. Of course, they still have to play Oregon and Stanford.
4)Miami -- 15.7 -- held Pitt 24 points under their season average
5)Alabama -- 14.9 -- Four out of five opponents held ten points or more below their season average.
6)Penn State -- 14.8 -- This may be a function of the Penn State offense lulling the other team to sleep
7)Navy -- 13.7 -- Helped by a relatively weak schedule.
8)Florida -- 13.1 -- Only Alabama scored more than 17 on them
9)Oregon -- 12.7 -- God help the rest of the country if they keep this stat up, as we all know they will score.
t10)Stanford -- 12.4 -- How good is the Oregon offense? They scored 52 against Stanford and their season average went down.
t10)LSU -- 12.4 -- Even Les Miles can't mismange this defense.

Defense?!? We don't need no stinkin' defense!

2010-10-04T23:09:00.004-04:00

I was lucky on Saturday in that I didn't watch most of our game in Bloomington live. Due to my son's soccer game starting at 3:45, I got a few updates during the first half, saw a little bit of the start of the second half at home, and then watched the final drive at a Pizza Hut surrounded by a bunch of hungry eight year-olds. Of course I recorded the game and was able to watch it later on in the evening. I could fast forward through much of the game when we were on defense. The funny thing is that it took me longer to fast forward through the Hoosiers 98 offensive plays than it did to watch Michigan's offensive plays twice.

The most interesting thing about the game, was that I think both coaching staffs came into the game thinking they couldn't stop the other team on offense. Indiana decided that they were going to be aggressive on defense, hoping to get some big negative plays and or turnovers. They slanted their d-line a lot, had their linebackers key on Denard, and occasionally bringing a safety up to the line. That resulted in a lot of single coverage on wide receivers, and no deep run support, which led to a lot of long plays on Michigan's part. The Michigan coaches, on the other hand, decided to play soft coverage (for the most part), hoping that by forcing the Hoosiers to dink and dunk their way down the field, they would eventually make a mistake. For the most part, Indiana did not make mistakes and held the ball for an impossibly long time. In the end, neither defense did anything to suggest that they will be anything other than putrid this year.

In that sense, I think this game probably reinforced most people's ideas of what Michigan's team will be this year. Those that were convinced that this year is just like last year will point to the 500 yards passing allowed against a traditional doormat of the league and proclaim that the tougher teams in the league will run up the score. Those that see this as a new year point to a second straight road win and the continual video-game like stats of Denard Robinson as proof that even when our defense is the dregs, we can still outscore anyone. I think that both viewpoints are valid. This is probably the worst defense in the big ten, and despite its youth, I'm not sure it will make any quantum leaps this year. At the same time there's a real chance that this is the best offense in the league. Everyone talks about Denard's obvious abilities, but the offensive line is monster, the TEs are good blockers, and the receiving corps might be the best in the league, both in receiving and in blocking. What this all means is that we are likely to see more shootout, last team with the ball wins type games.

Other random thoughts:
-One thing that will help our defense is the inherent conservatism in a lot of coaches in the league--Tressel, Ferentz, Paterno, and to a lesser extent Lt. Dan and the Madison Meathead are all "run or die trying" coaches. Our run defense is not stellar by any stretch of the imagination, but our pass defense is so porus that any time spent trying to establish the run is a wasted opportunity to beat our corners deep, or catch one of our linebackers trying to cover a TE. One or two wasted opportunities might be all our offense needs to win a game.
-I don't think the all-out blitzing, throw the kitchen sink at them approach will work with this defense, but I would like to see us disguise our coverages or vary things up a little bit. Playing 20 yards off the receivers every play seems like its asking to get picked apart. Throw in an occasional four man line, or a safety blitz. I noticed they played Mike Martin at DE a little against Indiana. Maybe moving him around some more, or bringing in other big bodies (Patterson, Will Campbell) on run downs will help against the caveman offenses.
-Having Brandon Herron back this week will help the pass rush, because it will allow us to move Craig Roh to his more natural position, DE on passing downs. It will also be good to get Carvin Johnson back, because I think he may be a little more physical than Thomas Gordon, although Gordan hasn't played that badly
- I don't know why LSU fans are complaining about Les Miles. They all want to go back to the days when they had a handsome, well dressed coach who always seemed to be in full control. But who's to say that if they got rid of Miles they wouldn't end up with another coach like the guy who came before the guy they're all pinning for. Maybe the norm for LSU coaches is not Nick Saban, but rather Gerry Dinardo. At least Les keeps the games interesting, and his press conferences are certainly more entertaining that anything Dinardo does on the Big Ten network.
-Lane Kiffin is an idiot. Up two with Washington driving, already in FG range with two minutes left, he decides not to use any of his three timeouts to give his offense time to respond, instead choosing to use two of them to ice the Washington kicker Eric Folk (who beat SC last year with a late FG) before his 32 yard attempt. Rats are gonna start jumping off that ship soon, if they haven't already.
-Gambler's Lament-Another exhibit why gambling on college sports is bad for your health was the Northwestern/Minnesota game. In our weekly College Pick'em pool (no money, just bragging rights), I had the Wildcats -5.5 @ Minnesota. Late in the game, with Minnesota leading 28-20, i flipped over to another game, figuring I was gonna lose this one. I flipped back a few minutes later to find that not only had Northwestern scored a TD, they'd missed the two point conversion, gotten the ball back and kicked a field goal. Now they were leading 29-28 and Minnesota had the ball with under a minute left. This game was toast for me, NU wasn't going to cover. But with just over 30 seconds left, with no timeouts left, Minnesota's QB threw it right to a Northwestern LB in the flat who broke into the clear and headed toward a pick six. Just about the time I jumped out of my seat, excited that I might actually get this pick right, the Wildcat linebacker realized where he was, realized that they didn't need to score and slide to the ground at about the 30. Good thing I didn't have any money on the game, or I might have been really pissed.
-More Golden rankings stuff later this week, and maybe if I find the time a post about the upcoming game with little brother.

Golden Rankings, Conference Standings

2010-09-30T20:58:00.001-04:00

Still to early to debut the Golden Rankings for this season, but just like Golden did, we reveal the conference standings:

Yikes, how bad has it gotten for the Big East? They are just a hair ahead of the Ivy league and are behind the Colonial. Maybe Villanova will want to stay in the better league.

Also wanted to present something new for the rankings this year. This year instead of just entering the margin of victory for each game, I'm entering each team's score. This allows me to keep track of team's average points scored and allowed per game, and also allows me to track how teams do against their opponents averages. This is a somewhat useful metric, as it allows you to take strength of the opposition teams. If two teams are both averaging 30 points per game, but one is doing it against teams that only give up 20 per game, and the other is doing it against teams that give up 35 per game, the first team would appear to be the better offensive team. So here are the top ten offenses in the country, as measured by the amount of points per game they score over what their opponents give up on average:

1) Ohio State 19.9
2) Oklahoma State 19.3
3) Stanford 18.3
4) Oregon 18.3
t5) TCU 17.8
t5) Houston 17.8
7) Nevada 15.8
8) Texas A&M 15.5
t9) Stephen F Austin 15.1
t9) Appalachian State 15.1

Of course, it's still early in the season, but its interesting to see to FCS teams on this list, especially one that's played an FBS team (SFA lost to Texas A&M 48-7 in the opener). Also interesting to note that several of these teams square off this week (OK State vs A&M tonight, Stanford vs the Ducks Saturday night).

Next week we'll look at some defensive numbers.

Much Better

2010-09-28T00:41:00.009-04:00

Now that's the way games against over matched opponents are supposed to go: Offensive excellence early and often, defense getting enough stops and turnovers to keep the game out of reach, and lots of young players getting their first substantial action on both sides of the ball. In the long run this game probably means about as much as last week's game -- its a win, read more into the game at your own peril -- but it is certainly funner to discuss and to relive, so here goes:
-The media seems to be overplaying the Denard injury just a little bit. It seemed fairly clear that he was alright, based on the way he was jumping around on the sideline. I still don't get the idea that he would be any more prone to injury as a QB running the ball than a running back carrying the ball.
-Yes, patsy opponent and all, but Tate Forcier looked good. The ovation he got when he took the field was heartwarming, and his comments after the game were encouraging. I know I was ready to write him off after his comments in the immediate aftermath of the UConn win, but his subsequent walk back of those comments and behavior since then show that maybe, just maybe, he's grown up a little bit through this whole ordeal.
-Gardner also looked good, but I think if Denard were to go down for any period of time, we'd be better off with Tate at the helm, even though he doesn't bring Devin's overall athleticism. I think Tate just brings some better reads and more accuracy. Either way, we have some of the better QB backups in the country.
-I liked the new punt formation, with three returners back, Odoms, Gallon, and Dileo, to combat the rugby style roll punts from the spread formation that a lot of teams are running these days. The extra returners allowed us to return a few punts that previously had ended up bouncing 20 yards, or had turned into turnovers when Gallon tried to dive after the ball.
-Not a bad first career carry by Fitz Toussaint, huh? I'd worry more about him being caught from behind if he weren't wearing a knee brace.
-I thought the freshman Ray Vinopal showed a good nose for the ball on his late interception. Now if we could just put a few pounds on him so he doesn't cough the ball up after his interception.

Thoughts from other games:
-I wonder if Alabama's come from behind win in Arkansas was just the first of many such games for the defending champs this year. With the way their schedule is set up, with many teams getting bye weeks before they play them, they're gonna get everyone's best shot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall behind against Florida, LSU, South Carolina, or Auburn. But they just seem to have that Rasputin like quality that they're never dead even after you think you've killed them.
-What the heck has happened to Georgia? Losing to Miss. State? I don't know anything about the situation on the ground in Athens, but from the outside it doesn't look good for Mark Richt -- losing record this year, losing ground in the rivalry with Florida, a new AD, and a gaggle of legal troubles for this players. His only saving grace might be that Tennessee might be worse, and the luster is coming off Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech a little bit.
-Speaking of the Vols, you gotta feel a little for UAB, miss five field goals in regulation and lose in 2OT to Tennessee. Ouch!
-I couldn't help but think in the wake of UCLA's somewhat shocking demolition of Texas that it was the Bruin's 66-3 win in Austin that effectively ended the last Longhorn coach's tenure. I don't think Mack Brown is going anywhere anytime soon, but maybe they shouldn't invite UCLA to town anymore.
-I watched a little bit of the Temple / PSU game. It's kinda a shame that the Big East kicked Temple out, since I think that if Al Golden stays there, they will outgrow the MAC real fast. If they are seriously considering adding Villanova, they should first bring Temple back. Of course, Golden's a Penn State alum, so he might be on their short list if/when Paterno finally hangs them up / kicks the bucket (whichever comes first).
-Odd Stat of the week: Every touchdown scored in Florida's 41-14 win over Kentucky was scored by #8 -- Florida's Trey Burton (who scored six touchdowns), Jeremy Brown (INT returned for a TD), and Kentucky's Chris Matthews (Two TD receptions) all wear number 8. I wonder what the odds are on three different players with the same number all scoring in the same game, let alone scoring nine touchdowns.
-Some more Golden rankings stuff later this week -- conference rankings and a look at a new rankings feature this year, looking at average points scored and allowed vs. the opponents averages.

Golden Program Rankings

2010-09-23T23:18:00.003-04:00

It's too early in the season for the regular Golden rankings to really mean anything, but since everyone has played at least one game, we thought we would display something new: out version of program rankings using the Golden system. The concept is rather simple, this years points are added to 75% of last year's points, 50% of the points from two years ago, and 25% of the points from three years ago, and then divided by the total number of games played over the course of the four years. The idea is that this formula accounts for the full range of playing time for most every player currently on a college football roster, with proportionally more weight given to the most recent data.

No suprises near the top with 08 champion Florida and defending champ Alabama at 1 and 3, sandwiched around Texas who has 5 losses over the last four years. What might be surprising is that the Big Ten is the first league with three teams to show up, with OSU, PSU and Iowa all in the top 14, and the Mountain West is the second with TCU, Utah, and BYU in the top 17.

For conference rankings, no surprise that the SEC is up top with only one of their twelve teams, Vandy, with a negative per game average over four years. The Big East is solidly in second, helped by good bowl records in several of those years.

Going through the motions

2010-09-23T00:53:00.003-04:00

You'll have to excuse the lackluster blogging effort this week (i.e. late) after a lackluster game on Saturday. Ugh. What a stinker.

The offense was out of sync. Robinson forced his first pass of the day resulting in an INT. He fumbled several snaps and seemed to read a couple of zone read plays wrong. The O-line missed a few assignments, and there were a few missed cuts by the RBs. Still they racked up 550 some odd yards on 56 snaps. Even when out of sorts, this is a potent offense. Offense is not the problem.

Defense is. More specifically, linebackers are. Even my untrained eye saw Ezeh and Mouton make bad read after bad read. Give Umass credit, they ran a lot of misdirection , roll outs and short passes that put the onus on the LBs to make the right read. Time and again they didn't. What is scary is that there are several Big Ten teams that play exactly this style of offense.

That being said, I'm not sure this meager effort changes the big picture. Even with the defense of death, the offense appears to be good enough to win four of the remaining nine games. If the defense improves (i.e. they discover some new linebackers), we might see more wins.

This and That:
-A lot of fans will make a big deal out of a close game with an FCS team, but this really isn't any different than a basketball win over a mid-major. UMass, Villanova, James Madison, App State, these are the football equivalents of the Butler team that came within a few points of winning the Big Dance this year. Now Umass probably isn't as good as Butler was this year, but they were chalked full of seniors. had plenty of experience, and probably won't be the worst team we play this year.
-The thing that disappointed me the most in our game is that we didn't see any backups. Obviously some new prospects on defense might provide some hope, but I was also hoping to see the backup RBs. Still not convinced Shaw and Smith are the answer.
-What a call by Dantonio in the MSU/ND game. The amazing thing was that it wasn't open when the punter first stood up. He had to wait for his receiver to come open. I found it funny that Kelly, who is know for his gambling nature passed on a fourth and one in overtime, and Dantonio, who is considered conservative took the risk.
-Hope Dantonio recovers in time for the Michigan game. We should have known that something was wrong when he smiled in the post game interview.
-Not to look to far ahead, but the State game looks like it will be a barn burner. Two potent offenses, two poor defenses. I think this game is huge for Rich Rod. If he loses that game, I don't think he comes back next year.
-Only watched a little bit of the Iowa-Arizona game before I fell asleep, but man is Mike Stoops crazy on the sidelines. If you had told me Sunday morning that a college coach had a heart attack the night before, I would have guessed Stoops.
-Bo Pelini looks to have Nebraska rounding in form just in time for their move to the Big Ten. I would love to see them win the Big 12 this year.
-I wonder if the Pac 10 is having second thoughts about Colorado. First California routs CU 52-7, then the bears get blown out by Nevada 52-31. They've added a few teams and still can't beat the Mountain West.
-A new set of Golden Rankings coming in a day or so.

Warp speed ahead!

2010-09-12T10:13:00.018-04:00

Photo - Michigan Daily

As I watched the end of the Boise State - Virginia Tech game on Labor Day night it occurred to me that the difference between the two minute offenses of Boise State and Virginia Tech embodies the struggles that many long-time Michigan fans are having in accepting the new Michigan offense. For the longest time, we had prototypical pro-style quarterbacks who like Boise's Kellen Moore could surgically take apart any defense with his passing even when everyone knew they had to pass. Now with a system that emphasizes a quarterback's running skills and athleticism more than his passing skills, I think many Michigan fans fear that we will be unable to run an effective two minute offense, just as Virginia Tech's Tyrod Taylor was unable to do at the end of the Labor Day game.

Among the multitude of amazing things Denard Robinson did on Saturday perhaps the most significant thing was to show those Michigan fans still uncomfortable with the new offense that just because he is not 6-4 with feet of clay doesn't mean he can't deliver in crunch time when everyone knows he needs to pass the ball. With the game on the line and 75 yards away from pay dirt, he went 5-6 for 55 yards and added 17 yards rushing with a fourth and one conversion and a touchdown rushing. Any doubting that he can be a complete quarterback is either not paying attention or is looking for reasons to complain.

The offense still has things to work on: the running backs have not been productive, the down field passing is inconsistent, and the propensity for bad penalties is gonna cost them at some point. Although last year taught us not to get to far ahead of ourselves, I think it is safe to say that baring some key injuries, this offense will be fairly productive.

The Defense? We won. Can't say too much more than that. They did appear to limit the ND rushing attack a little bit, but didn't get much pressure on the ND QBs and had some significant lapses in coverage. Cam Gordon took a couple of bad angles that led to two long ND touchdowns. Missed tackles were numerous, and the two inside LBs are about 50/50 to make the right read. We don't really know how good the ND offense is, but it's probably safe to say that the defense still has a long way to go to get to adequate. We won't discuss the special teams.

So big picture, where are we? One game closer to the seven wins we need to go bowling. I'd like to say this is better than a 7-5 team, but after last year, we know things can go south really quickly when the team has serious depth issues. Looking at the schedule, based on games played so far, there appears to be four teams that we would seem to be better than: UMass, Purdue, Bowling Green, & Illinois, five teams we don't have enough evidence to judge yet based on over matched opponents: Iowa, MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin, & Penn State (a loss @ Alabama doesn't prove anything major), and one team, Ohio State that appears clearly better than us. If I had to guess now, based on last year, Iowa and Wisconsin will join OSU in that last group, and Indiana will join the first group.

Some other thoughts:
-I'm sure you'll hear from negative nancies in the media and opposing fans how Denard won't survive the season carrying the ball 30 times a game and Michigan's offense will suffer if he goes down. While there is some truth in that, it's no more true for us than it is for any other team. Where would OSU be if Pryor went down? How's Florida doing so far without Tebow? Is a QB that carries the ball more likely to get injured than a RB who carries that much? I think that part of the negative reaction towards the amount of carries Denard gets has to do with that uncomfortableness with the offense we discussed above.
-I'm sure he got approval of the team doctors, but I wonder if Brian Kelly's decision to put Dayne Crist back in the game was a sound one. Crist's vision problems would seem to suggest a potentially serious concussion or head injury that would keep him out of the whole game. I'd hate to think that the decision to put him in was motivated by the horrible play of his backups, and you just hope that there are no lingering issues for Crist.
-Didn't see much of any of the other big ten games to draw many conclusions, other than the large white stripe on the MSU helmets looked bad and I wished we played Minnesota this year. What the heck Gophers? At least when we lost to an FCS team, we lost to the three time defending champs, not a .500 team that's only been playing Division one for four years.
-Bad day for the MAC. They went 2-5 in non conference play with two losses to FCS teams (Akron to Gardner Webb, Ball State to Liberty). The conference should really consider an en masse move to FCS.
-Almost equally bad day for the ACC, with losses to an FCS team (see below), a poor Kansas team, and big losses in marquee games by Miami and Florida State. They look to be a one bid league in terms of the BCS, yet again.
-USC looked fairly average. Pac Ten will be decided Oct 2 when Stanford visits Oregon. The amount of empty seats in Neyland Stadium midway through the fourth quarter was quite impressive.
-Biggest loser this week? Probably Boise State, whose "big" win over Virginia Tech became virtually worthless when the Hokies fell to FCS "power" James Madison. I can see another 12-0 season ending in a random BCS bowl game (but not "the" game) against TCU.
-The news on Friday that FCS power Villanova has been asked to join the Big East in football confirms what many have said for years -- the Big East doesn't deserve a BCS bid. Villanova currently plays in a 12,000 seat stadium, probably draws less per game than two other Philly area teams (Penn and Temple), and probably falls about ten spots down in the sports consciousness of the typical Philly fan. I know that UConn made a similar jump a decade ago, but they weren't really competing with anything else other than Husky basketball.
-On a final note, one of the all time greatest Wolverines, Ron Kramer, passed away on Saturday. I'd like to think he spent the afternoon watching the game with Bo, Yost, & Bob Ufer. Godspeed, # 87.

To Hell with Notre Dame!

2010-09-11T02:46:00.010-04:00

On the eve of the Notre Dame game, some random memories from the series:

I saw my first Michigan - Notre Dame series in person in 1979, a year after the series returned from a 36 year hiatus. My only memory of that game is Notre Dame lineman Bob Crable standing on the back of a Michigan offensive lineman to block what would have been the game winning kick. I'm sure the fact that this was blatantly illegal at the time didn't matter one bit to the Notre Dame team or fans, who probably feel that only God's rules are worthy of following.

Since that time I have witnessed 8 Michigan wins and 7 losses. Four of those loses came when I was an undergrad, with two trips to South Bend which may qualify as two of the most heart wrenching losses I ever seen. In 1988, I was standing on the field, behind the back of the endzone, waiting to run onto the field as Mike Gillette lined up to kick the game winning 42 yard field goal. We watched the kick to see if it had enough distance and raced into the back of the endzone heading for the Michigan team. We were at the goal line before we realized he had missed wide to the other side of the goal post. In 1990, we were walking through the parking lot after a come from ahead loss in Gary Moeller's first game as head coach when a particularly clever Notre Dame fan shouted to all the Michigan fans who were within earshot, "See you later Miss Again!" After four straight losses to Lou Holtz's teams, that one was particularly painful.

So of course, the 1991 game, with the famous catch pictured above came as a huge relief. Despite Desmond's Heisman launching catch, the game itself was quite mundane. We simply squeezed the life out of Notre Dame, possessing the ball for almost 45 minutes. This was just one of a number of games where Michigan has just outclassed Notre Dame. 1981 and 1985 were pretty comfortable wins, and the 2003 and 2007 matching 38-0 wins were two of the more delightful days I've spent at the corner of Stadium and Main. That 2007 Notre Dame team was probably the worst rivalry team I've ever seen Michigan play, and that's saying a lot since I witnesses the Bobby Williams and Muddy Waters coaching eras up in East Lansing. In fact it seems like in this rivalry, Michigan wins more of the lopsided games, whereas Notre Dame wins the close ones.

Of course there are exceptions to the that rule, and those games are my favorite Notre Dame- Michigan memories. The three straight defensive stops in 1997, the frantic closing minutes of the 1999 game, with time running out on the Irish just 40 yards away from the endzone, and Tate Forcier's heroics last year are all-time classics that I never pass up a chance to watch when they show up on BTN or ESPN Classic.

Back to the Future

2010-09-06T14:30:00.005-04:00

It's been a pretty obvious parallel to draw the last couple of years - stadium under construction, team under construction. Holes in new structure, holes in depth chart. Unpoured concrete, unfinished tackles. So maybe it's fitting then that on a day when they opened the new bigger Big House, we got to see a team that may finally be beginning to resemble the finished product that Rich Rodriguez envisioned when he first arrived here almost three years ago.

The offense we saw on Saturday reminds me of the old Michigan offense. Not the traditional pro set we had under Carr and Moeller, but the "three yards and a cloud of dust" offense of the mid and late 70s. An offense where the rushing attack is so precise and potent that the passing attack doesn't need to be overly complex to be successful. It relies heavily on the athleticism and decision making of the quarterback. On Saturday, Denard Robinson ran it to near perfection. His reads in the Zone read play were good, his passing was accurate and on time, and his knack for finding the right hole and hitting it at top speed was outstanding. It will be hard to top this game against a team that some suggested might be the best in the Big East.

Even with the workman like effort by the offense, it was perhaps the defense that was the most pleasantly surprising. It is not a stretch to say the last two years have been the worst defenses in Michigan history. a simply mediocre defense this year will be a huge improvement, and might be enough by itself to secure a bowl bid. and that's what we got on Saturday, a simply mediocre defense. There were some bad angles taken by safeties and bad reads by linebackers, but there were few of the crushing missed open field tackles that led to long touchdowns last year. There were no sacks, and the defensive line didn't beat blocks one on one, but there was enough pressure on the QB from linebackers to make the UConn QB uncomfortable. Most importantly, the defense got a key turnover at the most opportune time, something they hadn't done for the last two years. Is this a championship level defense? No. is UConn an offensive powerhouse? No. But there was enough positive play to suggest that maybe, just maybe the defense will be good enough to get us to the winning season we've been waiting for.

Other thoughts:
-I was hoping we see more kids play, especially on defense. I'd like to see what Marvin Robinson can do at Jordan Kovacs SS/Bandit position. I'd like to see more of Will Campbell, and hope he gets his act together soon. I'd like to see Stephen Hopkins take a turn at RB to see if he can fill the runaway beer truck role that Owen Schmitt manned at West Virginia. I was hoping to see Drew Dileo at punt returner, especially after Jeremy Gallon dropped his first punt (HOLD ONTO THE DAMN BALL!)
-I'd like to see Tate Forcier stick around, just for emergency purposes, but after his disappearing act after the game, I won't be broken up if he transfers. The guys at MGoBlog, of course, were right on top of this story after the fact, talking to his dad. That interview sounded a lot like damage control, and given the family history of transfers not working out, I would guess his dad wants him to stick around. But it's clear that he's not happy, and it will be hard to convince a 20 year old kid who's been raised all his life to be a star quarterback that he should be content to be a backup with little chance to play meaningful snaps unless someone gets hurt.
-Outside of the kick block, special teams were pretty mediocre. Although I think the wind played a big factor, kicking will be an adventure all season.
- You could see David Brandon's influence all around the stadium on Saturday: The band was miked up and you could actually hear them; there was no piped in music, save for one snippet of Journey's "Don't Stop Believing" at a quarter break; they announced a Slippery Rock score for the first time since the early to mid 80s (a report from some younger friends was that the students were very confused by that score and the cheers that it was met with); the band's halftime show was a salute to The Blues Brothers, complete with formations that actually matched the music (a Dodge with moving wheels, a hat and sunglasses). It could have been a show from the mid 80s. Hopefully we'll see more shows like that and less salutes to opera or boy bands like we had last year. I wonder if the annual salute to the school of animal husbandry will return.
-Some extra added food options this year look really yummy. We saw one stand selling roasted corn on the cob. Will definitely have to try that out.
-Overall a pleasant day at the corner of Stadium and Main. We now have six seats together, so my son came and brought his best friend with him (see the picture at the top of the blog). They had a grand time and even paid attention to the game most of the time. I'm not sure this game changes the overall season outlook - the goal is still to get to a bowl game, anything more is gravy.

Big Open House

2010-07-16T23:32:00.004-04:00

Like thousands of others around the Ann Arbor area, my wife and I decided to take our son and one of his friends to the Big House last wednesday to take a tour of the new additions to the Big House. In our visit to the two club levels and one suite level, we were impressed by the attention to detail, the closeness of the playing field (you don't feel like you're a mile up, like you do in some suites) and how much they've strived to blend the old brick style with the new architecture. Needless to say, the additions were a hit. Pictures below:

Golden Rankings, final regular season

2009-12-10T23:43:00.002-05:00

Instead of our usual categories to go with the final regular season Golden Rankings, we offer up our 16 team playoff based on the rankings. The playoff includes champions from all 11 FBS conferences along with five at large teams, and is played on campus for the first three rounds. Only One change had to be made to avoid rematches, with #14 CMU switched with #13 West Virginia to avoid a WVU-Cinncy rematch.

#16 Troy (Sun Belt) at #1 Alabama (SEC)
#9 Ohio State (Big Ten) at #8 Oregon (Pac 10)

#13 Central Michigan (MAC) at #4 Cincinnati (Big East)
#12 Penn State (At-Large) at #5 Florida (At-Large)

#14 West Virginia (At-Large) at #3 TCU (Mountain West)
#11 Virginia Tech (At-Large) at #6 Boise State (WAC)

#15 East Carolina (CUSA) at #2 Texas (Big 12)
#10 Georgia Tech (ACC) at #7 Iowa (At-Large)

Week one of the I-A playoffs

2009-12-08T00:39:00.003-05:00

That's what this past weekend of major college football felt like, the opening round of a national playoff. It produced one of the best weekends of college football in recent memory. Oregon and Oregon State played a barn burner on Thursday night where the key plays down the stretch were not long pass plays or lightning quick touchdown runs, but an old fashioned, grind it out, eat up the clock 7 plus minute drive by Oregon that featured a couple of fourth down plays and stiff-arm to end all stiff-arms by Oregon's tank of QB. Friday's Mac championship was slightly less entertaining, but still worth a look-see. Saturday's early game was a "leave-the-defense-at-home" shootout between the ground game of Pitt and the spread attack of Cinncy. After a dud of an SEC championship game, the weekend finished off with a trio of interesting games - Georgia Tech / Clemson in a back and forth ACC championship game, UConn / South Florida in the snow (the way football was meant to be played), and the Pièce de résistance, a near all time upset in the Big 12 championship game which featured a bone-headed play that almost cost Texas a Big 12 title and a chance at the national championship. It was a treat to watch, and they were all games that would have been more meaningful if we had a full 16-team playoff, instead of the abomination we have now. Even the MAC championship game would have had a large TV audience if the winner go an autobid to go play at Alabama or at Texas in the first round of the really, really, Big Dance.

Bullets:
-What the heck was Colt McCoy doing? I'm only a marginal Texas fan, and I was freaking out and yelling at the TV. I can't imagine what it must have been like for Longhorn, Cornhusker, Horned Frog, or Bearcat fans watching it live. I also don't understand why Mack Brown didn't call timeout once the clock went past :10 and the ball had still not been snapped. I understand wanting to take one shot at the end zone, but call your TO before the play, set it up, and then run the FG unit out after the incomplete pass. Like in the Les Miles fiasco against Ole Miss, i don't understand how coaches who make millions of dollars, can't find one cheap grad assistant willing to work for peanuts whose sole job is to watch the clock and tell the coach when a timeout is needed.
-I wonder if Jesus ever had as bad a day against the Romans as Tebow did against the Tide.
-Boise State has finished three of the last four regular seasons undefeated and has not gotten a single first place or second place vote in the coaches' poll or Harris poll. Great system we got here.
-I was disappointed to see that the Richmond / Appalachian State game, a match up between the champions of FCS the last four years that was won in the last 30 seconds didn't even warrant a minute of highlights on Sportscenter. I understand why the game didn't get televised except through ESPNU, but come on, throw us a bone.
-There were a couple of interesting comments at halftimes from coaches who run offenses similar to Rich Rod's. Oregon and Cincinnati both run spread offenses that stretch the field vertically and horizontally and incorporate zone read options, bubble screens and the like. I think that if, or when, the offense gets going here, it will look very similar to both the Ducks and the Bearcats - quick strike, fast paced, not much concern for time of possession. Both teams trailed at halftime of their respective games after their opponents had put together long, grind-it-out drives. When asked by the sideline reporter what was wrong with their defense, Chip Kelly responded, "Our offense" In other words, if we execute better on offense, defense won't matter. When asked nearly the identical question, Cinncy's Brian Kelly responded, "We are who we are." In other words, we'll have to try and outscore them.
-The Big Ten bowl match ups almost make me glad we are staying home for the holidays. Texas Tech might throw for 1000 yards on our defense, and Miami would play action us to death. Don't even want to think how bad our linebackers would look trying to stop Georgia Tech's triple option attack. Perhaps that's just another indication of how bad we are - when you look at all the bowl teams, and none of them look beatable, maybe you're not ready to go bowling.
-The Boise State / TCU Fiesta bowl is horrible. Not bad as in it won't be a good game, but bad as in neither team gets a chance to prove themselves against a big boy. It's a perpetuation of the "nobody will play you" / "Who have they beaten" cycle that all mid-majors go through in both football and basketball.
-Anybody have a clue what's going to happen with the Heisman? My ballot has McCoy, Suh, Ingram, CJ Spiller, and Toby Gerhardt, but I'll be darned if I can figure out the order.
-In news you may have missed, both Hofstra and Northeastern dropped their football programs this week. While that might not seem like a big deal, it might change the balance of power in the FCS subdivision. Both were members of the Colonial Athletic Association, which had four teams in the elite eight, and has two remaining teams in the FCS Final Four. The disappearance of two of the bottom teams in that league might force some of the stronger teams to look for scheduling opportunities in the FBS division. League champ Villanova beat Temple, Richmond beat Duke, and the league was responsible for four of the five wins by FCS teams over FBS teams this year.
-Golden Rankings, and the 16 team bracket coming tomorrow evening.

Thanksgiving weekend games

2009-12-02T02:11:00.005-05:00

-If I had a Heisman vote, it would go to Colt McCoy after his performance against A&M. Although some of that sentiment is based on his whole career. I can see the arguments for Gerhardt from Stanford, Spiller from Clemson, and of course, Tebow. I wasn't that impressed by Ingram.
-Speaking of Tebow, I'll be more than happy to see him go. He's clearly a great player and as an impartial observer in most Florida games, he is exciting to watch. But the cult of personality that has grown around him is quite sickening, frankly, especially where religion is concerned. I've always believed that religion and sports shouldn't be mixed. God didn't help either team win, and players who believe that are either fools, or think we are foolish. The fact that Tebow goes on missions, or puts a bible quote on his eye black doesn't make him a better football player, or even a better person, it just makes him a more devout christian. Would he be any less of a football player if he knelt down, pointing towards Mecca and prayed to Allah four times a day? i wish him all the luck in the NFL (or CFL), but I'll be happy if I can watch a Florida game with out some announcer going on about St. Tebow the saviour of Gainsville.
-Nice bounce back win for LSU. Good to see that Miles will keep his job for another year Their loss at Mississippi was quite embarrassing, and it's good that it won't really impact their season too much. Golden had a pretty good breakdown of all the game management mistakes in that game. I just don't understand how coaches (and it's not just Miles) who make millions of dollars can't completely master something that a majority of the fans can figure out. Shouldn't you assign some graduate assistant to watch time and tell the head coach when it's time to call a time out?
-Sad to see Chuckles out at ND. He was always good for a laugh, and there was a certain comfort in knowing that no matter how well he recruited the likely hood of them being a really good team was slim.
-I don't have much sympathy for Bobby Bowden. I know people think he should have been allowed to pick his own exit, instead of being forced out. But Bowden created a culture at FSU that the only thing that mattered was winning football games. Nothing else, academic scandal, criminal charges, or loyalty to the university matters as much as winning. The fact that mercenary attitude came back to bit Dagummit in the ass shouldn't surprise anyone.
-If the reports of 10-15 MSU players being involved in the post football bust beat down of frat boys turn out to be true, Dantonio should turn down the bowl bid. When nearly 20% of your team decides to don ski masks and start a brawl moments after gathering with coaches, families and supporters of the team to celebrate the team's accomplishments, that's a sign of an overall problem with the program. Because if 15 team members went to the brawl, you know that there were many more that knew about it and didn't do enough to stop it. The fact that it happened right after the banquet show that these players have little respect for the coaches. The whole incident is a giant "fuck you" to Dantonio and his coaching staff. -- "Thanks for the great season coach, now we are going to go do something that will embarrass you and the program and goes against everything you've been trying to teach us this past year" Of course, one could argue that Dantonio's reinstating Geln Winston to the team fresh out of jail because he was worried about his depth at RB sent the message that winning on the field was the only thing that mattered. If Dantonio wants to change that message, he should cancel the bowl trip. His alma mater and Clemson did that a number of years ago after a particularly ugly post-game brawl.

Golden Rankings, Week 13

2009-12-01T01:48:00.002-05:00

As predicted, TCU falls from the top spot with the Big Three all playing tougher opponents. Texas is momentarily #1, but will probably end up at #2 behind the Bama/UF winner assuming they beat Nebraska. If they don't, it will be interesting to see which of the other three unbeaten teams jumps up to #2.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Hawaii, up 25 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Duke, down 20
Top Riser (FCS) : Texas Southern, up 16
Biggest Loser (FCS): McNeese State, down 18
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Florida State, Opponent average - 58.83
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Army, 145.45
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Towson, 105.18
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Old Dominion 208.33

Conference rankings are posted below.

Golden Rankings, Week 12

2009-11-24T22:52:00.000-05:00

Florida and Alabama's wins over poor FCS teams knock them down and allow TCU to momentarily move into the top spot over Texas, which beat a struggling Kansas team. Elsewhere in the top ten, Iowa stayed just ahead of Ohio State, despite the Buckeye's win two weeks ago. I guess a win at Michigan isn't that big a deal these days. Sigh. Pittsburgh also stayed just ahead of Penn State pending the Backyard Brawl and the defacto Big East championship game in two weeks. I'd love to see a Penn State / Pitt bowl game somehow, just to stick it to Joe Pa.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Ohio, up 21 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Georgia & Notre Dame, down 20
Top Riser (FCS) : Alcorn State, up 23
Biggest Loser (FCS): Holy Cross, down 41
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 54.10
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Northern Illinois, 145.45
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Towson, 106.27
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Old Dominion 209.22

Conference rankings are posted below. SEC maintains it's lead over the Big East, but UConn's win over Notre Dame and Florida and Alabama's games with weak FCS teams shrink the margin a little.

OSU thoughts and season wrap-up

2009-11-23T01:45:00.000-05:00

It could have been a lot worse. The defense played hard, and Tressel's conservatism played right into Michigan's hands, so despite a gaggle of turnovers, the final score looked somewhat respectable.
-There's no doubt that Tressel is a great coach, especially when it comes to defense and special teams. But much like Lloyd Carr, he couldn't game plan his way out of a paper bag. Our defense has glaring weaknesses at LB and at safety and every non-MAC team has taken advantage of them until OSU. But instead of spreading us out, running zone read plays and short out passes and play action passes, i.e. things that would have forced our LBs and DBs to make decisions and plays in space, Sweatervest decided to run primarily out of an I formation, straight up blocking, that allowed our D-line to get penetration. Now perhaps Tressel saw no reason to do anything on offense since he knew his defense would probably out score us, but I think that if you constantly ask your offense to do the bare minimum, when you really need them to do something, they won't produce. It's what has happened to them against USC and SEC team recently, and it might happen in the Rose Bowl if they have to try and outscore Oregon.
-Pryor is a great athlete, but he has horrible QB mechanics. He's their version of Denard Robinson, but bigger and probably faster. Tressel should look to hire an NFL QB coach to try and develop his pocket passing.
-As much as the Forcier interceptions killed us, I don't think we should try and shut him down next year. His strength is his ability to pull something out of his ass when he's scrambling, I don't want him to lose that.
-There were as many OSU fans at the game as I've ever seen. That's to be expected with the season we've had. With the proliferation of ticket websites, making it easier to sell or buy tickets to any game, I would expect similar situations in the future if we don't turn it around.
-Of all the seniors who played their last game on Saturday, perhaps the thing I'll miss the most is the press box. The next time we see Michigan on TV, it will be at a different camera angle.

-Despite the disappointing end to the season, I think it's pretty clear the Rich Rod isn't going to be fired anytime soon. Anyone who suggest otherwise is either an idiot or in sports talk radio (or more likely, both). We gave Tommy Amaker six years, there's no way, considering his considerable buyout that we fire Rich Rod anytime before the end of the 2011 season.
-Whether he should be fired or not is a different question. I don't think he should be, but I understand the point of those who suggest he should be. I think two years is not enough time to give a coach, and I think there are still considerable holes in the roster that would not be helped by a coaching change. But I also think that given the way the first two years have gone, it's not terribly likely that Rich Rod will last much beyond 2011. There aren't many cases in recent history of a coach doing as poorly in his first two years as Rich Rod has done and winning big in his third or fourth year.
-Although I think Rich Rod should stay, I wouldn't mind if our LB coach Jay Hobson were to leave. He was responsible of inside LBs and both of our veterans in those positions, Ezeh and Mouton seemed to have regressed this year.

Golden Rankings, week 11

2009-11-19T00:28:00.003-05:00

Florida's win over 6-5 South Carolina and TCU's win over 8-2 Utah are enough to move both of them past last week's #1, Alabama. TCU's stay at the top is probably short lived, as they close the season with winless New Mexico and 5-5 Wyoming. Even two wins won't keep them ahead of the two SEC teams who close with FSU and Auburn respectively, Texas who gets a championship game, or Cinncy, who gets 9-1 Pittsburgh in three weeks.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Florida Atlantic, up 27 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Kansas State, down 21
Top Riser (FCS) : Hampton, up 26
Biggest Loser (FCS): Florida A&M, down 42
-Interestingly enough, these two played each other last week, with Hampton upseting A&M by 25 points.
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 47.90
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Northern Illinois, 152.40
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Northeastern, 97.90
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Old Dominion 205.25

Conference rankings are posted below. Not much changes, with the SEC leading the pack, the big East right behind, and the Big Ten and ACC fighting for third.

Perspective

2009-11-17T18:52:00.004-05:00

I was set to write a post about the Purdue game, about how the decent offense, no-defense, series of near misses and what-ifs in the game were just a microcosm of the year, and of the entire RR-era, and about how more than likely it was now a matter of when (probably two years from now), not if Rich Rod leaves when we were thrown a gigantic curve ball, the type of life-altering moment that punches you in the gut, and leaves you in a heap on the floor, an emotional cripple.

Everything that was on-going, work, school, blog, sports, AG, got set aside for a week or so, and only things that dealt with the crisis were attended to. Gone was any thoughts of bubble screens, defensive play calling, or coaches buyouts. To say that things were put into perspective is both incredibly cliche and an understatement of Weisian proportions.

This is not to say that football and other sports don't matter anymore, they do. You don't spend as much money on tickets, and as much time thinking, talking, and in some cases, writing (if that's what you want to call this) about something that isn't important. But it's little I important. It's the type of thing that belongs in conversations that start, "Hey, what's up", or "How about that game last night?" Big I important is what friends, relatives, and casual acquaintances read about you in a two paragraph summary of your life in the local paper. Big I important is what people think about as they stand above you saying their goodbyes. Big I important is making sure that the people who surround you and depend on you everyday are taken care of, and making sure that they know, and hear, how you feel about them.

Little I important things are there to entertain us, and distract us from drowning in the flood of emotions that come with a Big I important moment. So that's what we are here for today. To soldier on, to endure, and to think of all the positive moments that have come before, and not just on the pain that has recently been inflicted upon us. That's true for the Big I world, where we have to go back to work, back to school, and back to as much of a regular routine as we can to try and get used to the new reality, and it's true for the little I important world, where we should remember that this is supposed to be fun, and sometimes we just have to wait out the bad stuff to get to the good moments.

So, I'll get up the Golden Rankings soon, and will have some thoughts on the impending doom this weekend at the hands of Lord Saur-, er, uh, Tressel and his minions, and will get back to doing things like getting overly upset at the inability of our freshman walk-on safeties and linebackers to cover a simple crossing route or deep post.

Golden Rankings, Week 9

2009-11-05T10:15:00.003-05:00

Iowa holds onto it's top spot, Texas moves up to number three. Pretty stable among the top 20 teams. Some pretty good matchups coming the next couple of weeks. LSU visits Alabama, OSU visits Penn State and hosts Iowa. TCU hosts Utah in two weeks.

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Tennessee, up 35 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Michigan, down 36 (sigh)
Top Riser (FCS) : Illinois State, up 32
Biggest Loser (FCS): Delaware, down 52
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 38.63
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Ohio, 151.00
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Northeastern, 81.75
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Dayton, 218.57

Conference rankings are posted below. The SEC jumps back in front, Big Ten moves ahead of the Pac Ten into third:

Pick your metaphor

2009-11-03T09:28:00.010-05:00

Oh yeah, I suppose I should address our game this weekend.

Sigh.

It wasn't good. The offense played hot potato with the football. The special teams were sub-par. There were many poor or questionable coaching decisions. And the defense couldn't catch a cold.

After each of our previous losses this season, I've tried to look at the big picture. Although we still have a chance to make a bowl game and show improvement this season, the overall numbers are not good, and it does seem like they will improve anytime soon. O fer October in two years. 3-10 in Big Ten play. Out gained by every BCS opponent this year.

So where do we go from here? This loss has definitely brought out the pitchforks in some places and there are plenty of people who want to jettison Rich Rod now. But if you listen to comments made by school president Mary Sue Coleman, that's not going to happen this or next year. He's here through 2011, unless he chooses to leave, which is also unlikely given that he'd owe us a big buyout if he quit.

Personally, I'm glad the people in power have some patience. As frustrating as the last two years have been, firing RR now would put the program back and would potentially extend our walk in the wilderness. While I still support the coach, I have a hard time arguing now with those who say he's a bad fit here or will never be successful here.

Other thoughts:
-It's amazing to watch all the SEC slappies in the media get all over Iowa for trailing Indiana after three quarters, or for getting some questionable calls in the game. Didn't Alabama need a last second blocked field goal to beat a mediocre Tennessee team (hello, we lost at home to UCLA), and didn't Florida get some referee gifts to beat Arkansas? Now, I'm not saying that Iowa should be ranked ahead of those teams, it's just that the vitriol pointing there way seems out of place.
-Wow, Oregon. Chip Kelly's gonna get some coach of the year consideration, which is amazing since after week one, it looked like he was in over his head. Now that's what the spread option offense is supposed to look like.
-MSU's loss at Minnesota was almost as bad as Michigan's at Illinois. Ok, maybe not that bad, but it still puts them in a bad position. They now need to beat either Penn State at home or Purdue on the road to go bowling (assuming they beat WMU). I don't understand why Keith Nichol is still getting any playing time. I also don't see how you give up 42 points to a team that has 17 penalties for over 150 yards. Dantonio's lucky that Michigan has been so bad the last two years. Otherwise the main local story this year would be about the "Same Old Spartans".
-The Pizza Pizza bowl must be licking their chops. With both Michigan and MSU looking like they won't get above six wins, if they make it that far, there's a non-zero chance that they could get one of the two local teams. With CMU still in the running for the MAC title, they have a good chance to sell out Ford Field. Anyone interested in watching CMU carve up Michigan's secondary? How about MSU-CMU II?

Blacksburg

2009-11-02T23:54:00.004-05:00

All sports fans have favorite teams. And most sports fans have secondary teams. Those are the teams you root for when they are not playing your favorite team. The reasons for why we root for our favorite teams are deeply rooted in our upbringing and our identity. The reasons for our secondary teams are far more trivial. Perhaps we have family members who live there, or maybe we lived there when we were very young. Maybe they played a style of ball we liked, or had an ex-player from our favorite team there. Or maybe they are just a team from a different conference that was traditionally an underdog that we adopted out of some sort of sports related compassion.

For a good friend of mine that secondary team in college football is Virginia Tech. For several years we have talked about going down to see a game in Blacksburg on a weekend when Michigan is out of town. This weekend, we finally made good on that talk and took in the North Carolina/Virginia Tech Thursday night game.

The drive down was good. We left Wednesday night, stayed in the small town of Marietta that night and drove from there down to just outside Blacksburg on Thursday. The traffic was light, and the scenery was gorgeous. Southwestern Virginia is in full fall bloom right now, and one can easily see where the Hokie color scheme comes from, with a myriad of maroon and orange trees covering every hillside.

We parked in a residential neighborhood about a mile from the stadium early enough to stroll around campus a bit. After the requisite stop at the student bookstore to pick up some Hokie gear, we found a campus eatery for some dinner. It was the type of place you find on every campus, low prices, standing room only, loud music, and yummy greasy food. We especially liked the sign taped on the front door, written on the back of a sandwich wrapper that said they were closing at 7pm. They had to get to the game, just like the rest of the town.

Lane Stadium is set at the southern end of campus, on top of a hill, to the west of a somewhat dense thicket of woods, the type of which seemed to play a pivotal role in just about every major engagement in the Civil War. Approaching the stadium from the east, the massive light towers of the east structure glowed overhead, providing an almost eerie aura to the woods. Only a narrow path separates the woods from the stadium entrance, and after the game, we followed the crowd into the woods, expecting to find a path underfoot, but instead stumbling through branch after branch as we made our way to the tailgates on the other side of the hill.

The stadium itself is pretty basic. Two large stands on the east and west sides contain most of the 66,000 seats, with a large new press box and suite complex on the west side. The north stands are small, and the south stands have recently been expanded to include a second deck.

The atmosphere of the game was pretty electric. The Virginia Tech band is huge (330 people) and did a fairly elaborate pre-game routine that includes forming the shape of Virginia with a pair of tuba players dancing around the state to Blacksburg, spelling out Hokies, and some old fashioned "T-E-C-H" cheers. The entrance of the players was fantastic and is an example of how piped-in music can be used to effectively get a crowd jump started. I took video of the entrance, but I'm not sure I truly captured the entire effect. Somewhat surprising to me, no other piped-in music was played during the game.

We were sitting in what was supposed to be the North Carolina section, but it was only about half Tar Heels, with the other half various Hokie fans. Hokie fans were all decked out in Maroon and Orange, and were fully engaged in the game. The section stood for the entire game, and particularly came alive when Tech was on defense. Like the Michigan student section, the Hokie fans rattled their keys for "key" plays on defense.

Other in-game atmosphere enhancers included fireworks at the start and end of each half, after every Virginia Tech score, and at one random moment in the second half during a North Carolina drive. The score board also had a gobbler sound effect on every third or fourth down for UNC that was twice as annoying as the fake Lion sound they make at Penn State.

The game itself was a thriller, although you got the impression early on that Virginia Tech could have run away with the game if they could have just put together a little offensive execution. But they could put any points on the board while their defense was holding UNC to negative yards in the first quarter, and eventually the Tar Heels found some offense with some misdirection and creative formations. The Hokies responded with a decent passing game in the second half and got a huge turnover early in the fourth quarter to go ahead by three. But in the end, the couldn't stop Carolina from nickel and diming their way down the field. And with a few minutes left in a tie game, they fumbled away the game.

All in all, the game was a great experience, and Virginia Tech's reputation of one of the premier atmospheres in college football is well earned. I would recommend a trip to Blacksburg for any serious college football fan.

We knew this would happen

2009-10-27T10:30:00.000-04:00

At the start of the season I told myself, and anyone who would listen, that this was a 7-5 team, with five probable wins, five toss-ups, and two sure losses. So far this season we are 4-0 on the probable wins, 1-2 in the tossups, and just lost our first sure loss. So why is everyone so upset?

The truth of it is part of the reason that we all make predictions at the start of the season is to counter that overly-optimistic, ten-year old kid in all of us that is dreaming of ways we can go 13-0. As much as you repeat the more realistic prediction out loud, there's still that little voice saying "If we only get some solid safety play and we get some breaks, we could win it all."
When the season starts with an electrifying win, that little voice starts to get louder. After the Notre Dame win, and even after the close losses at MSU and Iowa, we started to believe that maybe we could win this game.

But the truth is any chance we had to be competitive in this game ended five plays into the game when David Molk went down with an ankle injury. We just don't have the talent right now on the defensive side of the ball, or the experience on the offensive side of the ball to be among the top teams in the Big Ten. Somewhere that ten-year kid is in mourning.

Bullets:
-The next two games are absolute must-wins. 7-5 with a mid-level bowl is progress for the program. 6-6 and a low-level bowl, or heaven forbid, 5-7 will be epic fail.
-If I have one complaint with the offense this year (other than general inconsistency and turnovers that come with two freshman QBs) it's the lack of a downfield passing game. Clearly, developing a pocket passing game with Tate Forcier has got to be one of the priorities for the off-season.
-Jordan Kovacs would be a halfway decent safety if he were just a step or 20 steps faster. Unfortunately, he's the only one we really have.
-Ok, let's see, two weeks ago Texas Tech beats Kansas State by 52. Last week Kansas State beats Texas A&M by 48. And this week, A&M beats Tech by 22? Gotta love college football.
-The MSU / Iowa game was an absolute snore fest for the better part of three quarters but turned into a classic big ten battle at the end. We got not one, not two, but three goal line stands, some questionable playcalls, a hook and lateral!, a missed fumble call, and a last second TD to preserve a perfect season (so far). Once they get past the gut shot nature of the loss, Spartan fans have to be happy with the direct of their program. The defense is much improved over the start of the season.
-My god is EMU horrible. Four and a half games after he went out for the season with an injury, QB Andy Schmidt is still the team's leading passer.

Golden Rankings, Week 8

2009-10-26T11:59:00.003-04:00

My apologies that the rankings didn't get posted last week. This week's rankings are far more interesting anyway.

The big news in the top of the poll was TCU jumping up to #3 with their win over BYU and Iowa increasing their lead over Florida with their last minute win over MSU. While TCU is likely to settle behind Alabama and Texas if those two team keep winning, Iowa has a puncher's chance to retain their top spot with a game in Columbus coming up, and all of their non-conference victims continuing to win. Also noteworthy that the most impressive win of the season by any of the top ten teams, according to our rankings, is not Iowa, or Florida, or Alabama, but Boise State with their season opening win over Oregon. A win by Oregon over USC next week might be just enough to keep Boise in the conversation for a BCS bowl. Now on to some stats:

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Texas A&M, up 47 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): North Carolina and Ohio, down 46
Top Riser (FCS) : Arkansas- Pine Bluff, up 36
Biggest Loser (FCS): Morgan State, down 53
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 37.13
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Ohio, 148.88
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Northeastern, 88.00
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Dayton, 227.67

Conference rankings are posted below for the first time in a few weeks. Suprisingly, the SEC is not in first:

Ride Captain Ride

2009-10-22T01:01:00.003-04:00

News came down from on high today that Bill Martin will be hanging it up as AD by next September. Now while most of us wouldn't know what makes a good AD, I think it's pretty clear that Bill Martin has been one of the best ADs in the country for the last ten years. To recap some of his accomplishments:
-He took an athletic department that was opertaing at a loss each year and made it one of the most profitable departments in the country, even without luxury boxes.
-He dramtically improved the facilities here, including a new football practice facility, new soccer stadium, boxes at Yost, new basketball practice facility, new wrestling facility, new varsity tennis complex, new academic support center for athletes, a renovated baseball and softball complex, and of course, the new suites and press box at Michigan Stadium. It is easily the most prolific building period in the history of athletics at the university.
-He helped provide a new emphasis on women's athletics, leading to our first ever women's national championship (2oo1 in field hockey).
-Eight top five finishes in the last ten years in the Director's, or Sears Cup, the annual award given by the NCAA to the school that finishes with the best overall placements in their top 10 men's sports and top 10 women's sports. These finishes have come against a number of schools that have extraordinarily large private endowments (like Stanford), or sponsor more sports than Michigan due to climate or size of athletic department (like Texas).
-Despite some high profile misses in coaching hires (Tommy Amaker, Bob Bowman), he has made some outstanding hires -- John Beilein, Rich Maloney, Marcia Pankratz and Rich Rodriguez -- that have put a number of the athletic programs in good hands for years to come.

All in all, it's safe to say that not since Don Canham retired has Michigan had such a successful AD. Here's hoping his successor has half his business sense.

Bullets:
-Not much to talk about with the Delaware State game -- both teams got the cash they needed out of the deal, the Hornets their 500k payout, which probably paid their season expenses, and Michigan their $4 million gate, which paid for a few different non-revenue sports
-From my vantage point, the national championship pecking order looks as follows:
1) Alabama / Florida winner (assuming they are undefeated)
2) Texas
3) Iowa
4) Cinncy
5) Boise
6) TCU
7) Alabama / Florida loser (or 1-loss SEC team)

Actually if the championship game is not a rematch, I think the one loss SEC team shoots above the two mid-majors, and maybe even above an undefeated Cinncy.
-I'll be interested to see how many of the SEC slappies who cried injustice at the idea of a rematch 3 years ago will now campaign for the loser of the SEC championship game to get a second bite at the apple.
-I'm not buying this "woe-is-me" routine from the Buckeyes and their fans. No matter how awful they look and how many games they lose between now and November 21, I'll still expect Pryor to go 28-32 for 350 yards and 4 TDs against us.
-A weird line for this weekend's games: Iowa @ MSU is a pick'em. Now I know it's tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, but Iowa already won by 11 in a night game at Penn State. Do the oddsmakers really think Penn State is 11 points worse than MSU?

Golden Rankings, Week 6

2009-10-15T01:01:00.002-04:00

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Louisville, up 51 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Indiana, down 45
Top Riser (FCS) : UC Davis, up 47
Biggest Loser (FCS): Eastern Kentucky, down 75
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 30.83
Weakest Schedule (FBS): South Florida, 167.20
Toughest Schedule (FCS): UC Davis, 73.75
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Dayton, 223.75

The rankings are starting to look a lot like the published polls, with Florida and Virginia Tech moving up this week after big wins over highly ranked opponents. Behind them, Cinncy, TCU and Boise maintain their steady climb up the rankings.
Still holding on in the top 20 are two Colonial teams, New Hampshire and Richmond, who unfortunately don't play each other this year in the regular season. Guess we'll just have to hope they meet in the playoffs. (Playoffs?!? Don't talk to me about playoffs)

Missed Opportunities

2009-10-12T13:29:00.003-04:00

I must admit that when it happened, I was livid. How could you not put the golden child, Tate Forcier, back in the game? After all, hadn't he already led three fourth quarter drives to win or tie games this year? We only had 1:40 on the clock, no timeouts, and we had to go about 60 yards to get into reasonable field goal range. Surely this was the perfect setup for more heroics.
But no, Denard Robinson came back out on the field. Maybe Tate was injured, we had seen him shaking his hand like he had hit it on something earlier in the quarter. But we saw him start to run on the field, as if to say, "I'm ready to go" only to be told to sit down by Rich Rod. This was clearly a decision by Rich Rod to go with Robinson.

After the game, I stewed for a while, thinking about the missed opportunity to steal a game on the road against a top ten team when you commit five turnovers. As disappointed as I was that the game slipped away, I began to mellow a bit, thinking about how good the team had played in certain segments, and realizing that we were a nine point dog in this game and nearly won it.

As I poked around on various message boards, and saw discussions of the game, and of Rich Rod's decision to bench Forcier, I came across a comparison that seem particularly apt to me.
Late in the Big Ten basketball season, with the Michigan hoops fighting for their first NCAA bid in ten years, Michigan was playing on the road against a poor Iowa team. With tough games still to play against Purdue and Minnesota, most people felt this was a must win for our tournament chances. After blowing a large lead late, John Beilein benched his best player, Manny Harris for the overtime period, and we ended up loosing. At the time, many people were upset that the loss had cost us our chance at an NCAA bid. But Manny came out fired up a few days later and we beat Purdue, and then beat Minnesota, and he was the best player on the court in our big dance win against Clemson. In the end, Beilein's decision to bench Manny against Iowa probably cost us that game, but might have been the move that saved our season. We can only hope that Rich Rod's bizarre decision to bench Forcier will have the same consequences.

Bullets:
-Big picture, I'm very pleased with where we are. A year after finishing 3-9 (and being somewhat lucky to get one of those wins), we are 4-2 with two narrow losses, and most of our remaining tough games at home. 8-4 is a real possibility now, and that would be a huge one year improvement
-Boy did our line play look great. I think we beat Iowa on both sides of the ball, and they were supposed to have the best D-line in the league outside of Columbus.
-I love seeing Brandon Minor run downhill. We really need to get him more carries against the big boys. I would love to see him repeat the success he had in the first half against PSU last year against the Knitknees this year.
-I was very impressed with Denard Robinson in the next to the last drive. Everyone in the stadium knew he was going to run the ball, and they still couldn't stop him. I wish he had come in the game earlier. I hope he gets significant snaps in the scrimmage against Delaware State.
-Jordan Kovacs has turned into a serviceable safety. Now if we could only bring Mike Williams along, we might be ok (meaning average) in the secondary.
-Woolfolk also look good. I would guess he's our starting CB the rest of the year, regardless of what happens with Cissoko's suspension.
-Other than Zoltan, our special teams were quite poor. Why can't we find a decent punt returner. Isn't that something that slot ninjas are supposed to be good at?
-If I were the Illinois AD, I'd start raising money for Ron Zook's buyout and would get Brian Kelly on speed dial. The Illini look like they've quit on Zook.
-The Big Ten looks like OSU's to lose. Iowa is good, but not good enough to win in Columbus. While the Buckeyes might trip up once, I don't see them losing twice, and no one else in the league is good enough to run the table. I would put Iowa, PSU, and Wisconsin in the group behind OSU, with Michigan, MSU, and maybe Minnesota a step lower than them.
-Has anybody else in the country played as many exciting games as Washington? (Perhaps us)
-The post game interview with Bobby Bowden was painful to watch. They asked him what went wrong with the game, why they lost, and he couldn't offer much more than cliches. It's pretty clear that he doesn't have the slightest clue what's going on out there. I don't envy the FSU fans or decision makers. It's pretty hard to deal with the fact that the person that basically created your program is now like an anchor around its ankle.

2009-10-08T01:15:00.002-04:00

Top Riser from last week (FBS) - Michigan State, up 72 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Arizona State and Hawaii, down 50
Top Riser (FCS) : Cal Poly, up 60
Biggest Loser (FCS): Citadel, down 77
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Washington, Opponent average - 25.00
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Tulsa, 166.60
Toughest Schedule (FCS): UC Davis, 62.67
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Campbell, 217.00

Can't Win Them All

2009-10-05T02:09:00.005-04:00

For 55 minutes on Saturday, it looked we had gone back to last year: receivers dropping balls, lineman and running blocks missing blocks, defense giving up big plays on third down, players looking like they didn't know their assignments, and the team generally sleepwalking through a game.
And then Tate Forcier reminded us why it isn't last year. The coaches basically gave up trying to run the ball, MSU abandoned what had been working on offense, and Forcier led not one by two long drives down the field in a driving rain without using so much as a timeout to tie the game. A scramble one way, a scramble another way, a pass to a receiver just past the first down line, a bullet on a slant catching safeties flat-footed. All of this while quite visibly in pain, wincing with every hit and every glancing blow. It was quite a sight to behold, and you could almost here spartans across the state cursing to themselves, "Oh No, we can't lose like this again"
But for once, the bounces didn't go our way in overtime, and we lost for the second time in a row in this rivalry for the first time in our lifetime. Forcier tried to make one pass too many, Troy Woolfolk missed one last tackle, and Larry Caper scampered into the end zone bringing joy to most of Spartan Stadium.
This loss hurts because this was probably our most winnable road game, with the probable exception of Illinois. And State was trying real hard for a while to give us this game: personal foul penalties (although the last one they got was a bad call), bad turnovers, trying to much to run the ball when they could've just passed us into oblivion, etc. And we just couldn't, or wouldn't take it.
But in the big picture, this is not a horrible loss. An overtime loss on the road in a rivalry game, while painful, is not something that will torpedo the season. Despite the good start, anyone who told you they expected us to win the Big Ten this year is either lying, or 12 years old. This is probably a 7-5, maybe 8-4 team. Not sure this loss changes that.

Bullets:
-For the second straight year I think Dantonio out coached Rich Rod. I thought they looked like they made a decision to kick away from Stonum on kickoffs, and they ran a little toss sweep off the three receiver set that was quite effective. Obviously the fake punt call, whether it was the coaches' call or Mesko's read was horrible. And I would have liked to have seen Robinson in earlier, but as a slot or a RB, in with Forcier. There were rumors this week they were working on 2 QB sets in practice, but we didn't see any of that.
-One thing that Dantonio did screw up, IMO, is putting Keith Nichols in. Perhaps Cousins was hurt, but if he wasn't, there was no good reason to bring Nichols in. Unlike Robinson for us, Nichols doesn't really provide any new look that Cousins doesn't.
-The receivers really did not help Forcier much at all during the game. Koger dropped a couple, as did Kelvin Grady.
-We miss David Molk something fierce. Hope he's back for Penn State.
-Considering the day didn't appear to have many great match ups when it started, there were some great finishes. our course our game went to overtime, Notre Dame beat Washington in OT, and LSU and Georgia played a classic where they scored 13 points in the first 57 minutes of the game, and 20 in the last three. LSU has enough talent to make that Florida game interesting, if they can find a way to be more consistent on offense. You can bet that Tebow will take more than a coupld of hits. I wouldn't try and run him too much, I wouldn't want to give one of those LSU safeties a chance for a kill shot on the Savior.
-In that game there were a pair of celebration penalties that were just ridiculous. It seems like every five years or so, the NCAA decides to try and legislate out the emotion of the game, and we get these stupid calls deciding games.

The Team, The Team, The Team

2009-10-01T22:21:00.004-04:00

One of the things that they've added to the Michigan Stadium experience this year is the hype video before the players come out onto the field. While every team has these type of videos, and many are rather run of the mill, or cringe-worthy, I think some of the videos they've used this year have been ok. The one they used at the start of the IU game was particularly good. It used perhaps the most famous Bo speech, which I have previously advocated for.

Deconstructing Little Brother

2009-09-30T22:59:00.013-04:00

In his short time at Michigan State University, spartan head football coach Mark Dantonio has waged a very focused PR campaign against the University of Michigan football program. From his very first post game press conference when he paused the questions to ask for a moment of silence to commemorate Michigan's loss to Appalachian State; to trading insults with a 20 year old college student; to excusing his team's disgraceful performance at Penn State by pointing to Michigan's poor record, to rooting against his own teams' interest just to see Michigan lose; and to a myriad of subtle and not-so-subtle jabs in the press, Dantonio has made it clear that he views Michigan as Public Enemy #1.

A good portion of his fan base has eaten this up, and love him for his comments. The same people who used to call Lloyd Carr classless have no problem with their coach engaging in message board type flaming in the media. To them his public disdain shows that he gets the rivalry, that he won't bow down to Michigan, and has the will to take MSU to the next level. As if all it takes to coach and recruit at an elite, or even above-average level is the will to do so.

The local media has bought the spin as well. Article after article has trumpeted the Spartan's Ascension or asserted that after two straight bowls and one win over the worst Michigan team in history MSU now owned the state of Michigan in recruiting. Like the fan base, they mistook attitude for accomplishment and voted MSU third in the Big Ten preseason poll despite the fact that they were outscored, out gained, and out first-downed (is that a verb?) in conference play last year, lost a two year starter at QB, and 90% of their rushing in Javon Ringer.

But the hopes of a fan base and the desire of journalists to write a new narrative doesn't erase 40 years of history, and one (or two) successful season does not dramatically change the direction of a program. Despite the feeling by many Spartans that Dantonio represents a radical departure from the past the results on the field and in recruiting don't really show that. Dantonio's first three classes have rankings (42, 47, 17 via Rivals; 51, 56, 37 via Scout) that are similar to John L Smith's last three classes (16, 35, 33 via Rivals; 13, 40, 43 via Scout). More importantly, Dantonio's record after 30 games is exactly the same as John L. Smith's.

That record continues an amazing trend with Spartan head coaches. Since 1973, when Duffy Daugherty stepped down, six out of eight spartan coaches have won 15, 16, or 17 games out of their first 30:

Denny Stolz (1973-1975) 16-13-1
Daryl Rogers (1976-1979) 16-12-2
Muddy Waters (1980-1982) 9-21
George Perles (1983-1994) 13-16-1
Nick Saban (1995-1999) 17-12-1
Bobby Williams (2000-2002) 15-15
John L Smith (2003-2006) 17-13
Mark Dantonio (2007- ) 17-13

That in a snapshot is Spartan football in the modern era: amazingly consistent, slightly above average.

Golden Rankings, week 4

2009-09-28T22:33:00.003-04:00

End of September, every team has played at least two games, time for The debut of my version of the Golden Rankings for 2009. Explanation of ranking system is here. Discussion of some differences between my version and Golden's are explained here. My tweaks for this season are discussed here.
Team rankings first::

Top Riser from the end of last year (FBS) - Michigan, up 145 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Rice, down 204
Top Riser (FCS) : Cornell, up 178
Biggest Loser (FCS): Bethune Cookman, down 150
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Virginia, Opponent average - 30.33
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Texas A&M, 181.33
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Dartmouth, 32.00
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Campbell, 242.00

Conference Rankings:

Usual disclaimers about rankings getting more and more relevant as the season goes along, and being nothing more than an interesting thing to read at this stage of the season apply, but I think there are a few interesting things here:
-The defending FCS champ, Richmond makes one of the highest debuts we've ever had for an FCS team that had played more than two games. Now they will drop as the season goes along because FCS wins will be worth less, but the Colonial has two wins over the ACC and four undefeated teams. If the spiders make another run deep into the playoffs, they have a shot to finish top 20.
-The more things change, the more they stay the same for the ACC and Big East - one team each in the top 20, as many as Conference USA, the Mountain West, and one less than the Colonial. Meanwhile, the SEC has four, and the Big 12 and Big Ten have three each. It looks like we could have another Cinncy / Va Tech snoozer on New Year's Day.
-FCS teams are doing better against their FBS brethren than last year, with five wins out of 72 games. Last year they went 2-94.

A Win is a Win

2009-09-28T11:01:00.006-04:00

My son had a soccer game on Saturday, so I didn't get to the game until there was about 2 minutes left (just missed the winning TD). My impressions are from watching the replay.

-This game reminded me, in some ways, of the basketball team's come from behind win at IU in January. A young, rebuilding team playing a lower level conference squad they are supposed to beat. The young team gets pushed around, but somehow finds a way to win. In both cases, a loss could have really hurt Michigan's resurgence, and there are few positives to take from the win, other than the fact that it is a win. Given how last season went, maybe that's enough. With four wins, a bowl bid, and at least a three game improvement on last season seems to be there for the taking. How much more than that, we'll have to wait and see. Anyone who had visions of Roses after the first two games probably has fallen back to earth with the last two games.
-I don't know if there is one area of the defense I trust 100% right now. The D line was supposed to be a strength, but they are getting very little pressure right now. Teams are clearly attacking the side of the line that Brandon Graham is not on with regularity. We should move him around more. I also think getting some of the backups with more size (Sgasse, Banks, Campbell) in for more plays would help offset some of the rush defense issues.
-Upon first glance, the LBs didn't look as out of place this week as they did last week, but tackling still seems to be an issue. I saw a couple of occasions where a ball carrier was met at the line of scrimmage, but still gained five or six yards because the LBs didn't get proper leverage on their tackle and the RB fell forward instead of going back.
-Boubacar Cissako just looks lost out there at times. After a rough start, I thought Floyd actually did better. I am disappointed that five-star freshman Justin Turner isn't ready to play.
-The offense looked out of sync. Perhaps it was the new center, David Mooseman. Or perhaps it was injuries to Tate Forcier, but they didn't really seem to get on track. Still, it's a testament to the design of this offense that they can still score 36 points when they look bad.
-I was happy to see Denard Robinson get to run some different plays, although it still looks like the package of plays they have for him is quite small. If Tate is out for next week, they'll need to expand that package at least a little.
-I think it was only fitting that one of the top HS punters in the nation for 2009 committed to us on a day when Zoltan Mesko was out best defensive player. All hail the new Space Emperor!
-On the game-sealing interception that some people have complained about, there was no good view on TV of who originally caught the ball. The first time we see the ball is when the players hit the ground and the ball is in Donavan Warren's arms. I understand why Bill Lynch was upset, his team played a great game, and with the game on the line, his team ends up on the wrong side of a close call. But the announcer's indignation was totally uncalled for. This wasn't a "travesty of justice", Indiana didn't get screwed. There's no way to tell from the replay if Warren caught the ball cleanly or if the IU player had possession before they fell to the ground.
-Interesting similarities between this game and the famous 1979 game: Both games were homecoming, Michigan was a double digit favorite in both, IU outgained Michigan in both games, IU coach went balistic about calls late in both games, and freshman stars made big plays to win both games.

Elsewhere:
-Good job Jim Delany, your suspension of one of Purdue's starting OL for what should have been a 15 yard penalty probably cost them the game against Notre Dame.
-Nobody circles the wagons like the Virginia Tech Hokies. Is there a better homefield advantage in football than Blacksburg?
-Perhaps in Oregon. Can we once and for all put away any discussion of California ever being an elite team. It seems like over the last 5-10 years or so, every time they win a few games, and look like they are ready to make the jump to being a top 10 program, they pull out a stinker like this. I understand losing a road game in a tough venue like Oregon, but 42-3? 42-3?!? Have some pride and come to play. There was a time when I wanted Jeff Tedford to be the coach here after Carr retired. Boy am I glad that never came to pass.
-Great win by Iowa, who seems to have Penn State's number. Our game in Iowa City in two weeks could get ugly. I don't think they will win the league, however. They have to go to Columbus, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to either Minnesota or Wisconsin.
-Golden Rankings coming soon, with a look at the battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy coming later this week.

Golden Rankings, Conference Standings

2009-09-20T23:07:00.003-04:00

We'll unveil the entire rankings by team after next weekend's games, but for now the conference standings:

Depth Charges

2009-09-20T17:47:00.003-04:00

More than anything else, games like yesterday's game against Eastern are about depth - developing depth by giving backups and second and third stringers a chance to play, and using depth to avoid the inevitable letdown that comes when you play a team you're expected to beat handily.

It's clear that we have developed the depth we need to be a championship team in some areas, but are still sorely lacking in others. We have as much talent at the offensive skill positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) as anyone in the league. The depth certainly helped yesterday. Tate Forcier had his worst game of the year. He missed a number of passes. Not Threet or Sheridan missed, but turn a 20 yard gain into a 5 yard gain type misses. A number of times he passed up a sure couple of yards trying to make a big play. It seemed pretty clear that he had read some of his press clippings this week and wanted to show that he was the newest superstar. As a result, our passing game was not nearly as efficient yesterday as it was the previous two weeks. In it's place was a devastating rushing attack. From the first snap, it was clear that Carlos Brown was going to have a great game. Eastern had no answer for his speed. Michael Shaw looked almost as good.

On the other hand, it's equally clear that we are nowhere near a championship level defense, and we are amazing thin there. With the Big Ten suspending Jonas Mouton just a day before the game, we were left starting a walk-on, Kevin Leach at linebacker. What's worse, he appeared to be the better of our two inside linebackers. Obi Ezah just seems lost out there at times -- tentative, slow, and consistently out of position. EMU basically had success with two plays, a sort of counter that sucked the linebackers into the line, before the RB bounced the play around the end, and a play action waggled that got the linebacker open crossing in front of the moving QB. Both plays really took advantage of the decision making of our linebackers. Given that poor play, I was disappointed to not see more of the backups once we got up big late in the second half. If backups like Kenny Demens, Brandon Smith, and JB Fitzgerald can't get playing time against Eastern, the chance of them helping later in the year is slim to none.

Bullets:
-Eastern may have provided the game plan to beat us this year -- run, run, run, play action to the TE. Keep our D on the field.
-Denard clearly has a long way to go at QB. He made a couple of bad reads that led to our two turnovers. But he has good arm, decent mechanics, and of course could turn off the light and be in bed before it gets dark. The bar is not very high for his passing competency. He only needs to be adequate at passing to make him a quarterback capable of moving the ball against good defenses.
-I was hoping to see more of the OL backups - Omaneh, Barnum, Khoury, Mealer.
-I hope Andy Schmitt is ok. He's a good QB, and Eastern really has no chance of having any sort of season without him. I was watching him with the binoculars when he went down, it looked bad. He planted and his knee buckled.
-There were a couple of spreads this week that looked like fool's gold. Unfortunately this fool only recognized one of the three before the games were played. What's the old saying, "It's not the Xs and Os, it's the Jimmies and the Joes." In college football, most times, talent wins. That's why OSU wins 10 or 11 games every year with the world's dullest offense. There were three games where the talent gap between the two teams seemed to be at odds with the spread:
1) BYU was favored by a touchdown over Florida State. While everyone focused on BYU's win over Oklahoma and how they executed, the truth is, even as much as the 'Noles have slipped in recent years, they still have a lot more talent than BYU
2) Oklahoma was only favored over Tulsa by 18. Everyone wondered if OU could recover from the loss of Sam Bradford. But remember that a program as good as OU always has talent waiting in the wings. Given a couple of weeks, It should have been obvious that Landry Jones (the backup QB) would be just fine.
3) Florida was favored by 30 over Tennessee. With all the hype about Kiffin's comments and conjecture about how much Florida would run up the score, we lost sight of the fact that Tennessee's problem in recent years hasn't been their defense, and that they still have a fair amount of talent, with a very good defensive coordinator, Monte Kiffin.
-Watching the Texas - Tex Tech game, it appeared to me that the new enclosed end of the stadium, which was only partially completed when we went there, makes a big difference in the noise level of the stadium. Perhaps I should attend another game there.
-I think that the end might be near for the USC "dynasty" They really looked quite mediocre against the Huskies and I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to Cal, UCLA, or even, gasp, Notre Dame. I think Carroll should really think about opening up the offense a little, there appears to be little imagination in what they do.
-Is it just me, or did it seem like Tennessee wasn't really trying to win the game against Florida, so much as just keep the score down.
-I didn't really see much of the MSU/ND game, but it looked very similar to our game against ND a week earlier, except that the absence of Michael Floyd hurt the Irish in the stretch run. I was kinda surprised how much the announcers were commenting on every penalty the Irish got. I think that they've bought into what Weis was trying to convey last week - they only lost to us because of the officials.
-The Arkansas / Georgia game was absolutely bonkers. Ryan Mallet is going to make opposing defensive coaches in the SEC sweat for three years. Of course the Razorbacks don't have enough other talent to win a title, but their games will be fun to watch.
-Ditto for the Fresno / Boise game on Friday night. Boise may have a great rushing attack and some good skill players, but they will get carved up when they play a BCS conference team on New Year's if they don't improve their rush defense. A lot. And why did Fresno keep kicking the ball deep, after giving up two kickoff returns for TDs (one that counted) and two other 60 plus yard returns? Pat Hill is vastly overrated as a coach. Did you realized that he has never won a conference title?

Lose Yourself

2009-09-13T22:13:00.010-04:00

There are points during the long off-season where you find yourself daydreaming about the upcoming season, and how great it could be. There are times during the two week prelude to the season when you hear message board reports about how some young phenom is tearing it up in practice and is poised for a breakout year. But you stop yourself from daydreaming too much because you don't want to get your expectations too high. And you remind yourself that those reports have often been wrong in the past.

So when Tate Forcier missed a wide open Kevin Koger streaking down the western sideline on third down with just over 3 minutes to go I saw the young quarterback bend down with his hands on his helmet and thought, if only briefly, that they gave it a good go, and perhaps two wins in the first two games was too much to expect after the trainwreck that was last season. I half expected my friend of 20 years who sits next to me at games to remark, "Well, at least they'll probably be 3-1 when the head to East Lansing"

But thanks to some curious playcalling from Jabba the Weis, the great improvisational skills of our young quarterback, and some nifty receiving from our senior possession receiver and a career backup, what had been a good game turned into an all-time classic. In the process, the afternoon exceeded anything I had dared to imagine back when all anyone wanted to talk about was the arrest of an ex-quarterback or the number of practice hours the team spent in a week. As I rewatch the game (in HD, no less), the painful memories of last year are already starting to fade. If we have too many more of games like today or last week, I think I'll forget about last year altogether.

When the season started, I think most people had Michigan pegged between 5-7 and 7-5. I think those predictions might need to be revised. With the two toughest teams remaining on the schedule (OSU and PSU) coming into AA, and road trips to MSU, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin not looking as tough as they did at the start of the season, an 8 or 9 win season doesn't look out of the question, and there is a chance, a small chance, that this season could really be a special one.

Bullet Points:
-Tate Forcier is one of the three best QBs in the Big Ten, and might even be better. We haven't had a QB that could just make shit up like that since Jim Harbaugh. We've had big strong guys who could throw it thru a brick wall, but no one that you would want to see outside of the pocket.
-Hello Daryl Stonum. He had kinda a tough year last year, getting into some trouble off the field, and not showing much on the field. There were reports in camp that he was dropping a lot of balls. With top wideout Junior Hemingway out this week, we really needed Stonum to step up, and boy did he ever. His kickoff return was a thing of beauty, and he did a great job running his routes, even when he didn't get the ball. I look forward to seeing him grow this year.
-Brandon Minor is clearly our #1 tailback. His bruising style is a perfect counterpart to the quickness of our other skill positions.
-This team still has a lot of holes in it. Obviously we need more depth in the defensive secondary, we played a 5-10, 190 pound walkon redshirt freshman at safety for most of the second half. We need some size in the DL and LB, we got pushed around a little up front. Our offensive line still has improving to do. But you can really begin to see how this team is going to look when it is ready to compete with the best teams in the conference and the country. The gap between us and the 2 teams at the top of the conference doesn't look as big as it did 2 weeks ago.
- The piped in music is growing on me. I thought it was much more effectively used this week. The White Strips tune is great for sporting events (as any good European soccer fan already knows), and I like the Eminem tune as well. I like the fact that there are local connections with both artists. Besides, with the new acoustics, we can't hear the band at all anyway, so they might as well play something.
-The Notre Dame team is improved from last year. They have a lot of offensive fire power, and they do a fairly good job of using it. Their defense needs a lot of work, but I don't know if there are a lot of teams on their schedule, outside of USC, that can slow them down or take advantage of their defense.
-Michael Floyd is the best receiver we'll play all year. I hope his family starts looking for an agent, so he can get ready for the NFL draft in the spring.
-Jimmy Clausen has a big arm, but no poise. Four different times in the game he called timeout in the middle of a quarter, for no reason other than he didn't like what the defense looked like. I don't think he could improvise if his life depended on it.
-Still I can't help but think that there is a limit on how successful they can be with Mr. Schematic Advantage there. He's a great recruiter, but he couldn't teach his way out of a paper bag, and there are stories after stories of him pissing off former players with his arrogance and rudeness. He can't afford to lose too many more games this year.
-In other games, I think Jim Tressel is wasting Terrell Pryor's considerable talents by trying to make him a pro style QB. Put him in our system, or Florida's, or Texas', or anyplace where they'd let him use his speed and his running ability on a more regular basis, and people would be calling him the new Tebow. USC was ripe for the picking Saturday evening, and OSU let them off the hook because they couldn't take advantage of a young, albeit very talented, USC defense in a hostile environment. They were just too conservative on offense until it was too late.
-As I was watching that game, I couldn't help thinking as I saw them in a Two TE, one receiver set, "Why don't they spread them out, so that they can get more running lanes" Rich Rod's offense has gotten to me.
-After all the crap we heard over the summer in the local media about how MSU had passed Michigan and was taking over the state in recruiting, I couldn't help but feel a little schadenfreude in the Spartans' loss to Central Michigan. Mark Dantonio has taken every opportunity to take cheap shots at us in the media the last two years, so I didn't feel too much sympathy for him as I saw him in a post game interview looking like someone had just run over his dog. Although I think he is better than John L Smith, his record is now only three games better than Smith at the same point in his tenure, and State has four very losable games coming up, @ ND, @ Wisc, Michigan, and @ Illinois. Things could get real ugly in a hurry for Lt. Dan.

Out of Town Scoreboard

2009-09-07T01:24:00.003-04:00

Some thoughts on other games over the weekend:

-Why on earth would Ohio State schedule Navy the week before USC, without a tune-up game in between? Perhaps it will work to their benefit this week, but my guess it will just beat them up for the big game this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of last years USC domination.
-Ron Zook seems to have returned Illinois to the level they were at before he got there: wildly inconsistent and terribly disappointing on a regular basis. Missouri was supposed to be rebuilding this year, with only four starters back on defense, and a new skill position players on offense. The Illini made them look like national championship contenders.
-Maybe Dan Hawkins should consider coaching the intramural team.
-I wonder if Keith Nichol is kicking himself now. With Bradford's injury, he could be starting for a top five team now, instead of being a backup on a mid-level Big Ten team.
-Georgia's loss and LSU struggle against a team that was 0-12 last year illustrates why I've always felt the SEC "dominance" is overrated. Accumulated miles have a huge effect on college teams, and SEC teams rarely travel outside of their conference footprint.
-FBS teams went 34-3 against FCS teams this weekend. 2 of the 3 losses came from ACC teams. Duke lost to Richmond, the defending FCS national champion, and Virginia lost to William & mary, who was 7-4 last year. If Al Groh's job wasn't in danger before, it probably is now. With the Miami / FSU game to come tomorrow, the ACC is 4-6 on the opening weekend. Looks like another year of somewhat mediocre football from the nation's best basketball league.
-Watching the Tulsa / Tulane game Friday night (yes, I'm an addict), it occurred to me that a 2 for 1 scheduling deal with Tulane wouldn't be the worst thing for Michigan's future schedules. Tulane would be a step up from FCS teams, they only draw a few thousand fans to their home games in the Superdome, and Michigan fans might be able to fill many of those empty seats. Besides, I know someone who could get me tickets to that game ;-)

Big House Revival

2009-09-06T16:46:00.003-04:00

When I met my dad at the stadium yesterday, he commented that the walk to the stadium was one of the weirdest ones ever.
"How so?" I asked.
"It was very quiet. Usually I can hear the crowd, the PA announcers, or if I'm late enough, the band taking the field for their pregame performance. I thought maybe I had gotten the game time wrong. But now..."

He didn't need to finish the thought, we both knew what he meant, and I probably couldn't have heard him even if he did finish the thought. With the new additions to the stadium, the sound that once drifted off into the surrounding neighborhoods where we usually park now bounced back into the stadium. It was easily one of the loudest games I've ever been to. Even before the game, there was a buzz of sound that enveloped all of us. You couldn't hear the band across the way clearly, as their music bounced off the east suite structure and seem to reach us in rounds. it was a cacophony of excitement that washed over all of us.

The "controversy" of the last week seemed a long way off in the grand old stadium yesterday afternoon. It was clear from the start where the loyalties of just about everyone there lay. If there was anyone who had doubts about the coach and the program, they kept them hidden. All over were signs showing support for the team and the coach: "In Rod we Trust", "Done with the Free Press," "All in for Rodriguez", "Rosenberg Punches Dolphins" (not sure what that last one means). At several points during the game, the chant started from the student section, bounced off the eastern sideline and spread all around the bowl: "Rich Rod-ri-guez, clap clap clapclapclap"

The team did their part to lend to the exuberant atmosphere. A near perfect first half included:
A freshman starter who did his best Colt McCoy impersonation: strong and accurate arm, good pocket presence, and an impressive command of the offense. He showed just about anything you'd want from a QB. His first game line is eerily similar to McCoy's first game: Forcier: 13/20, 179 yds, 3 td/0 int, 37 yds rushing (0 td); McCoy: 12/19, 178 yds, 3 td/0 int, 38 yds rushing (1 td).
-A backup quarterback who showed everyone why people had been raving about his speed. I don't remember if anyone else has every scored in his first play as a Michigan Wolverine. The rest of the game, you could hear everyone murmur with excitement whenever he touched the ball. It's the same buzz Desmond got during his Heisman campaign, or went through the stadium anytime anyone was stupid enough to throw in Charles Woodson's general direction. I'm not saying that Robinson will be as good as those two, just that his first carry set the stage for a season's worth of anything can happen type plays.
-A top receiver, Junior Hemingway, who ran good routes, showed decent speed, and could be a legitimate deep threat all year. He missed all of last season with injuries.
-A TE, Kevin Koger, who caught one TD and made a fantastic one-handed grab.
-A defense that was quick to the ball, and featured few, if any, of the missed tackles that were all over the place last year. Especially surprising on that side of the ball was the play of Troy Woolfolk, and true freshman DE/LB/"Spinner" Craig Roh, who showed a variety of different moves in getting penetration.

It's hard to find too much to complain about in this game. The final score was not indicative of the closeness of the game. It easily could have been 50-0 if Michigan hadn't taken their foot off the gas. If last year was any indication, this was one of the top teams in the MAC that we demolished yesterday. They had the 11th ranked passing offense in the country, and they had 81 yards of total offense in the first half when the game was in doubt (if it ever was). The result doesn't mean that we are going to go 12-0, or even challenge for the Big Ten title, but it does make it clear that this team will not be 3-9 this year. Last year Western beat two teams that we lost to, and there are at least 4 teams left on our schedule that have less talent than Western (IU, Purdue, Delaware St, and EMU). Given Iowa and Illinois' struggles yesterday, a 7 or 8 win season does not seem unreasonable. Win next week, and the ceiling will get even higher.

'Twas The Night Before Football

2009-09-04T23:47:00.000-04:00

One of my favorite passages from the legendary Bob Ufer, he read the following prior to a Michigan game at California sometime in the mid 60s. It's a little dated, but the general themes still hold true to this day.

It's only September, but as we look down and daydream, we can't help but notice that the field is green, tinged with brown and a white chalk line laces it together. The athletes have been practicing gingerly, packed firmly in dashing uniforms where padding and muscle meet. The stands offer a stage for fashion. Men in short sleeves and colorful jackets, the ladies all lovely, a combination of soft curves and bright hats. There are the program hawkers, the deep-voiced peddler with his hot dogs, the soft drink boy making change, and the smiling cheerleaders. There are uniform men in striped shirts, and of course, a dog.
What is it? It's Football. Yes sir there are five seasons across this country every year, Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall, and Football. Football season makes the barber cut hair just a little bit better, and it makes the butcher slice the steak a trifle thicker. The shoeshine boy pops the rag with more gusto, the landlord doesn't mention the overdue rent.
The pilgrimage is on. Old cars, new cars and motorbikes are jammed with riders wheeling for the stadium from North, East, South, and West and the back roads are jam filled. The gentleman steers with one arm, explaining a forward pass with the other. Ladies think about their figure, and men compromise that it will only be for one the weekend. So, stop the car get some hot dogs and drinks from the roadside stand.
On grassy lots and asphalt sidings, high school lawns and golf greens, the cars line up with the hood ornaments pointing towards the main gate. Trunk compartments fly up to supply sandwiches, sliced cake and pickles and a few pints after touchdowns, even though the game hasn't started yet. The insurance man waves and doesn't mention his newest policy, rather wants to know who's favored. Old friends are greeted, and new friends are introduced between bites. The old grad may look older, but he's beginning to feel younger than his freshman year. There's the band with the drum major, and maybe they have 76 trombones, and maybe they don't, but the music sound good, and if you're walking, the steps come quicker. The ex-halfback tells himself he could pull a helmet over that bald spot and look as good as any of those college boys, the bad knee feels like new.
There are folks seated on the 50 yard line, and they have that little edge in prestige, because there aren't many such seats available. They really can't see the game any better, but it's a symbol of success, and football games are social games as well. There are the loyal and the disloyal, and the fellow who really doesn't care who wins, but wants to see some action.
There's something in football for everyone. Some can cheer the players, some can second guess the coach. Some can listen to radios and see how wrong we radio announcers can be. While some just enjoy the ballet of young bulls in battle.
There's a beauty of sound in a punt, and a spine chill from the thud of a fullback being hit head on by a red-dogging linebacker. There's magic on the campus sprawling beyond the boundaries of the stadium. There's a pleasant emotional letdown after a game is over: a tired by happy feeling for the winner, a tired, but resolute challenge to avenge for the losers. The stands empty, and the fog of battle lifts, and there's a stillness, and a grandeur, and a look to the future.
No sir, there's nothing like college football, and it happens all over the country. It's happening here in Berkley this afternoon, it happened in little old Ann Arbor last Saturday, as once again small college towns across the country become part of the big collegiate football scene.

Opening Night thoughts

2009-09-04T12:38:00.011-04:00

-The Boise State / Oregon games was kinda disappointing last night, I was hoping for some offensive fireworks, and Oregon did their best impression of Michigan's 2008 offense. Its just one game, but Chip Kelly looked kinda lost out there. It doesn't help that Mike Belloti was running around after the game telling reporters the coaching adjustments that needed to be made. And of course, the despicable display by Oregon's starting RB after the game can only serve to create some pressure on Kelly.
-There is a great old quote about former president Warren Harding by senator William McAdoo;

His speeches leave the impression of an army of pompous phrases moving over the landscape in search of an idea. Sometimes these meandering words would actually capture a straggling thought and bear it triumphantly a prisoner in their midst until it died of servitude and overwork.

that I am reminded of whenever I watch a game with Bob Davie announcing. Most of it is mindless drivel, but every once in a while he actually stumbles upon a decent point. Last night he made in relation to the question of could Boise compete in the BCS conferences. He pointed to the fact that even a slightly above average BCS team like Oregon has had three times as many NFL draft picks as Boise. Simply put, they don't have enough talent to make it through an entire season in a BCS conference unscathed.
-That being said, if they go undefeated they should get some consideration for the national championship game if there aren't other undefeated teams. The way college football crowns its champion right now rewards the team with the best record, as opposed to the team that is the best.
-I watched a little bit of the Indiana / Eastern Kentucky snoozer. The new addition to the IU stadium look good. Empty, but good. I question the need for an addition to a stadium that never sells out. Do 30,000 empty seats really look more impressive than 20,000 empty seats?
As for the game, Indiana looked pretty bad. I wonder if they would ever consider scrapping the football program, so they could just concentrate on basketball.

The Free Press strikes again

2009-08-30T00:44:00.001-04:00

http://www.freep.com/article/20090829/SPORTS06/90829021/1318/Michigan-football-program-broke-rules--players-say

I have no doubt that most of this is true. And to it, I say, "so what"? They practice too much? This is not news, its been going on for years in every major college sport, and quite a few of the non-major ones. To think that this is shocking, unique, or somehow makes Rich Rod an outlaw coach is silly.

Could their be penalties for Michigan? Perhaps, but I would be surprised if the NCAA took any action. While if the Free Press's account of hours is true it would constitute technical violations, the NCAA has looked past more blatant violations from other schools. Recently Alabama and Florida State were found to have committed violations for improper benefits and academic fraud, respectively, and were force to forfeit past games, but not given a bowl ban or lost scholarships. The NCAA has a history of not punishing the big guys too much, like the old Jerry Tarkanian joke about Kentucky committing a violation so Eastern Kentucky goes on probation.

So what does worry me? The article implied that players weren't allowed to go to class because of practice, but it didn't have anything to back it up. If this were the case I would be troubled. If players were prevented from taking challenging courses, I would be bothered.

But what worries me the most about this is that there are writers , or editors at the Free Press who either have an agenda against Rich Rod, or feel that writing articles about how wrong he is for Michigan is the best way to sell papers. The companion article about how MSU plays by the rules is the dead give away. The article on Michigan appears to have taken some time, and a significant amount of work to compile. They appear to have spent maybe 15 minutes on the MSU article, getting a throw away quote off a leading question ("Does Dantonio cheat?) just to appear fair and balanced. The practice schedule for the Spartans is no different than it is for Michigan.

If, as some have suggested, there are still some in the administration or athletic department that don't like Rich Rod and would have preferred someone that represented less of a change, these continual negative stories, however true or untrue they might be, could be used to run him out of town if he is not wildly successful this year or next.

While you were gone

2009-08-14T00:57:00.004-04:00

Our annual look at the off season just passed for our readers who aren't as obsessive about following Michigan football as we are.

Bo used to say that only three things could happen when you passed the ball, and two of them are bad. In the last couple of years, it seems like you could say the same thing about our off seasons.

In mid December, it was announced that Defensive coordinator Scott Shafer would be leaving. In January, Greg Robinson was hired to take his place. All indications seemed to suggest the Shafer ust didn't mesh with Rich Rod and the rest of the staff. The Purdue game, where Rich Rod supposedly took over control of the defense from Shafer, was seen as a sign that the relationship could not be repaired. Robinson appears to be an upgrade. Despite his dismal record as a head coach at Syracuse, he was defensive coordinator for Texas when the won the national championship, and for the Denver Broncos when they went to the Super Bowl.

The early part of any off season is dominated by recruiting news from January until signing day in early February. This year was no exception, as Michigan pulled in a class ranked between 8 and 14 in the country, depending on who you asked. The class was headlined by a block-out-the-sun defensive tackle from Detroit, a quaterback prodigy from California whose family has a history with Michigan, a top cornerback from Ohio, and lots and lots of speed, some small, some not so small. Of particular interest was the fact that several members of the class, graduated from high early and enrolled in January so they could go through spring practice.

Despite this successful class, much of the news during the season was about decommitments from Michigan. No less than nine players decommitted at some point. Some decommitted to take visits to other schools and then later recommitted. Some chose to decommit after Michigan recruited other players at their positions. And some decommitted because they are no different than most 18 year olds, and aren't completely sure what they want to do with their lives. More than anything, this trend illustrated a changing dynamic is the way recruiting works. With the growth of social media and recruiting websites, more and more information is out there about recruits, and more recruits are committing early. But some local sources, many of whom criticized Rich Rod for taking kids last year who decommitted from other schools, chose to use the decommitments as evidence of his lack of fitness to be coach here at Michigan. And of course, those up the road in East Lansing jumped all over that and used as part of their recruiting pitch, in and out of the media.

The other major source of news during the off-season involved player departures. About a dozen players left the team since the end of the last season. Some left early for the NFL. Most were backups unlikely to play a significant role this year even if they had stayed. But there were two that played significant roles last year that left, QB Steven Threet and RB Sam McGuffie. Both likely would have seen playing time this year, but its not clear if they would have started, or for how long. Threet had the most experience of any QB, but he clearly doesn't fit the spread option as well as the two freshman, Forcier and Denard Robinson. McGuffie started the year strong at RB, but faded as the year went on and he suffered some concussions and Brandon Minor came on strong.

Most of the players departing transferred to other schools quietly, praising the coaching staff, or simply saying they were moving on. Two players made a bigger splash. OL Kurt Wermers left, saying that "the kids on the team now weren't his kind of crowd" and the team was less like a family now. It later turned out that Wermers was academically ineligible when he left. I guess not his kind of crowd meant kids that actually went to class.

The other player who made a splash was WR / former QB Justin Feagin. In late July, he was dismissed from the team for violations of team rules. It would be revealed later that his violation could have included some criminal activity. In short, Feagin was approached by a friend last spring who was short on cash and agreed to broker a drug deal for him with a friend of his down in Florida. Feagin took money from him, and then never followed through on the drug deal. The friend responded by trying to set Feagin's dorm room on fire, but he got the wrong room. Feagin was questioned by police in late July. Later that day he was dismissed from the team. Of course our friends at the Free Press responded by declaring Michigan a win at all costs team and blamed Rich Rod for not doing proper research on Feagin. Of course the Free Press missed an obvious parallel with a team up the road that had a player convicted of felony assault after the last season, serve almost six months in jail, and then let out early so that he wouldn't miss practice time. The double standard, and other obvious problems with the Free Press article were pointed out by bloggers more accomplished than I.

After the worst season of Michigan that any of us can remember, we were treated to a horrible off-season, despite a decent recruiting class with some exciting players (more on this later) and the continued construction on the big house. So you see, the season can't get here fast enough.

More from The List

2009-08-03T00:06:00.003-04:00

You may remember from earlier this year, we introduced the first few members of our list, those people that we would banish if we were in charge, for no other reason than we wanted to and could because we were in charge. This list is limited to sports figures, as clearly there are more evil people in the world that would be banished long before any sports figure.

We start at #5 -- Colin Cowherd -- ESPN Radio blowhard
I spend a lot of my free time reading, talking, watching, listening to, and thinking about sports. i spend a lot of my time that supposed to be spent on other things thinking, watching, and reading about sports. I don't understand how people who are paid to do the same thing I do for fun get their facts wrong on such a regular occasion. I understand that radio talk show hosts are trying to provoke listeners, and unpopular opinions are one of the best ways to do that. But please back up your opinions with some evidence. I also understand that a national host doesn't follow teams as obsessively as fans or local beat writers do, but spend a little time doing some research, or get one of the multitude of flunkies working for you to look things up. Cowherd is just one of many hosts to have the same problem, he stands in for the entire group due to the plagiarism issues in his past and a recent show discussing college football when he claimed that "Penn State had handled Michigan pretty well" in the last few years (they are 1-9 in their last 10 meetings).

6, 7, 8) Jim Delany, Mike Slive, & Roy Kramer -- Godfather of the BCS and its current champions
I'll admit that my distaste for Delany is not in my team's best interests. Delany's (and Slive's and Kramer's) support of the BCS is what is in the best interests of the schools in the Big Ten and SEC that they represent. The BCS keeps those two conferences rich, along with the ACC, Big 12, Big East and Pac 10, to a lesser extent, and is the biggest single thing that keeps programs like Michigan on top of the college football heap, money wise.
But like most college football fans, I want to see a playoff. And Slive and Delany, and the universities they represent, are the biggest roadblocks to that.

UConn?!?

2009-07-30T23:15:00.003-04:00

This is a horrible, horrible scheduling development. We have contracted for a home and home with UConn. This is the "big name" opponent we were lining up for the 2010 opener. Uconn, who has played only 107 games in I-A (FBS) and is 54-53 in those games. UConn, who just moved up to I-A in 2000 and who as recently as 1999 was playing Ivy and Patriot League opponents. UConn, whose new stadium has a capacity of 40,000. UConn, who has an alltime record of 7-20 against Delaware and 8-19 against Holy Cross. UConn, whose most common opponents all time are UMass, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Yale.

UConn is not a "major" college football program. They are barely above a MAC team prestige wise. There is absolutely no upside to Michigan to playing such a team, and there is no reason why we should be doing a home and home with this team, especially considering what we supposedly have passed on before. This matchup won't be a game of the week, and will barely get any mention on the college football shows. Especially galling about this development is that we are probably giving up several million dollars of revenue to play a game at UConn.

We should be playing a top ten non-conference team every year. Since Notre Dame has not been that type of program in the last 15 years or so, we should be looking to play teams like Texas, LSU, Georgia, Florida,Oklahoma, and the like. If we don't want to schedule tough games like that along with Notre Dame, with should look at programs like Virginia Tech, Auburn, or any of the various Pac Ten teams we have played in the past (Cal, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Oregon).

Ideally, I'd like to see us play Notre Dame at home one year, in South Bend the next year, and then take a two year break, where we can schedule a home and home with an elite team such as those listed above. We could then add lower level BCS teams, as additional games in years when we don't have big home games.

Golden Rankings, 2009 changes

2009-07-29T01:37:00.007-04:00

Just like the BCS, our goal here with the modified Golden rankings is to keep tinkering with the system year after year to try and correct the previous year's mistakes, hoping we're not opening up new holes in the process.

Midway through the bowl season, we noticed that the rankings were doing a particularly poor job of predicting the bowl results. For the year we ended up 13-21. When I looked at the losses in detail, I found that in 11 of the 21 losses, the team that won had a higher schedule rating than the team that the rankings predicted to win. Was it possible that we weren't giving strength of schedule enough weight?

I started to think about this in relation to our basketball rankings, and in particular to the way the NCAA calculates RPI for basketball (and other sports). The RPI is calculated based on 25% for a team's record, 50% for the opponent's record, and 25% for the opponent's opponent's record. So, I took a look at two somewhat average teams in last year's rankings. Baylor, which finished 4-8 with an overall rankings of just above -14 and Houston, which finished 8-5, with just under 16 points. When I took a look at where each team earned their points, I found them to be remarkable consistent. Each team got under 14% of their points from their opponent opponent's records, over 50% from opponent's records, and over 30% from their own record and bonuses and penalties for margin of victory or defeat, road wins, and home losses.

Looking at this, I tweaked the overall formula to double the value of the opponent's opponent's record so that each win or loss by the opponent of an opponent counts 0.04 points, instead of just 0.02. This had the following effect on our two average teams:

Immediately I saw percentages more in line with how the RPI is calculated in other sports. Additionally, when I applied these changes to all teams, I found that our bowl predictions flip-flopped in 10 of our 21 losses. That is to say, with this system in place last year, we would have correctly predicted 23 of the 34 games!

At the start of last season, we looked at the way we counted wins and losses for and against FCS teams, and decided to weight those games based on the winning percentage of FBS teams vs FCS teams (97.62% or 82 out of 84 games) measured against the winning percentage of FBS teams against FBS teams (50% by definition). Last year that meant that wins over FCS teams counted slightly more than half as much as a win over an FBS team, and losses to FCS teams counted twice as much as losses to FBS teams. While I like the methodology we used, and the fact that it has the capability to change year to year based on the performance of the FCS teams, there was a slight hole in our logic. We compared the FBS vs FCS winning percentage to 50%, when we should have compared to the FBS winning percentage of home teams since all 84 FBS/FCS games took place on the home field of the FBS teams. So this is what we are going to do this year. While this will boost FCS teams in the rankings, that boost will be counteracted by the extra weighting given to schedule strength through opponent's opponent records. More than likely this change will decrease the penalty incurred by FBS teams for scheduling FCS teams.

Blog: Reactivate

2009-07-28T00:31:00.004-04:00

With the Big Ten Media Days starting this afternoon, it's time to awake the blog from its off-season hibernation and start to gear up for the impending football season. In the next few days / weeks leading up to the season, we have a while you were away post summarizing off-season doings, some discussion of adjustments I'm going to make to my version of the Golden rankings, overview-type previews of assorted teams on Michigan's schedule, along with some general thoughts about the outlook for different BCS conferences, some random musings on future schedules, and perhaps another installment of The List.

For now, a hype video made from our spring game, which made the rounds at some point this summer and features the new hope for the offense, 18-year old Tate Forcier. (HT: The Wolverine Blog)

The Bird was the Word

2009-04-15T19:47:00.000-04:00

Once again, the passing of a Tiger legend.
I was too young to be following sports the Bird's rookie (and really only) season, and only heard stories of it when I came to sports fandom age a few years later. Part of me never really understood what the big deal was about him. So he talked to the baseball, big deal.
But a few years back when the All-Star game was in Detroit, I saw a piece on him on the WWL, and I started to get what made him so special.

The 70s were not a very good time for the Detroit sports fan. The Lions made one playoff game in 1970, and then moved out of the city to Pontiac, which must have seemed like another world at the time. The Red Wings were in the midst of a 20 year swoon which saw them make the playoffs only twice, despite the NHL expanding the post season to 16 out of the 20 teams in the league. The Pistons were still a non-entity in the NBA, and the Tigers, despite having won a championship in '68, and a division with Billy Martin in 72, lost 102 games in 75, their first losing season since 1952.

It hadn't always been that way. In the fifties and early sixties, Detroit was one of the centers of the sporting world. The Lions won four championships in seven years, playing at Briggs stadium. The Red Wings won four Cups in six years. And the Tigers, although not a powerhouse like the Yankees (or even the BoSox) were still a consistent top half of the division. Kids growing up in that era had it good around here.

So the downfall of the 70s must have seemed like the end of the world to those kids. Then along comes Fidrych, this non-roster invitee to spring training in 76, who didn't started his first game until mid-may, and wound up finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting. He went 19-9 with 24 complete games and 250 innings pitched. He was a breath of fresh air to a town that was desperate for a hero.

And then, almost as quickly, he was gone. His career only lasted four more years, he only pitched 162 more innings in the majors after 1962. He was like that girl you dated once in high school that you were crazy about, but moved away before you could learn all the mundane things about her. He was a shooting star, whose peak came at just the right time in Detroit sports history

A Radical Suggestion

2009-03-31T19:54:00.005-04:00

From time to time the subject of Big Ten expansion comes up at the office. Usually it's brought up by one of those quasi-sports fan, who knows when the Super Bowl is, but not much more. The question gets tossed at the sports fans in the group, "Is the Big Ten ever going to add another team to make an even number?"
A discussion usually ensues about how any school that might be considered would have to meet a myriad of qualifications, including geographic proximity, academic reputation, and profile of the university. We talk about all the various candidates, and why they don't fit, wouldn't leave their current conferences, or are just too far away. Of course this topic has been covered in much greater detail by the professional Michigan bloggers.
The other day while we were rehashing this, a thought occurred to me: What if The University of Chicago had never left the Big Ten? Would MSU have been invited to join if there were 10 and not 9 members? Would they have looked to Penn State? Would we have 12 teams in the Western Conference now?
If you think about it, the addition of Chicago make sense in a lot of way. Geographically they fit perfectly, and would fit in the western division with NU, Ill, Wisc, Minn, and Iowa. They could play their games in Soldier Field and would be a southside Chicago private school counterpart to the northside Chicago private school Northwestern. The resulting Big Ten championship game could be played in Chicago, which is just teeming with Big Ten grads. Academically they are a perfect fit, as they already belong to the CIC, the academic arm of the Big Ten. Historically, they would represent a return to the roots of the league, as they were one of the founding members of the league, and the league probably wouldn't exist without Chicago. Plus their colors (maroon and white) would be unique in the league.
Of course there is the small problem of them being a Division III athletic program that offers no scholarships, and has facilities that are woefully inadequate for the Division I, let alone a BCS conference. But if Michigan can make the Big Dance, and State can make it to two straight bowls, anything can happen

They're Gonna Wave Him In!

2009-03-29T10:40:00.005-04:00

Some catching up on a few items:

-I was in the middle of setting up an Awards Ceremony at the Academic Games State tournament as Michigan was playing Clemson in the first round of the NCAAs. As I was unpacking trophies, setting up microphones, and moving chairs, people would shout the score to me from across the banquet hall, where they were watching it on ESPN gametracker or a shitty CBS March Madnees On-Demand video feed, while at the same time monitoring middle school students playing Presidents. When the game finally ended, my son called me with the score. Needless to say, I didn't really get much chance to break down the game, and I still haven't watched it in its entirety. But over the next few days, whenever I had a moment to think. I found myself repeating the results over and over, "We won a game in the Big Dance, we won a game in the Big Dance!" I am ecstatic with the season, and think John Beilein did a whale of a job making the tourney with two walk-ons at point, and one player over 6-8 in the rotation. He certainly deserved some Coach of the Year consideration in the Big Ten (Izzo winning that award was an absolute joke). I know that the step for a program from bad to mediocre or from mediocre to good is ten times easier than the step from good to great, or great to elite, but I have confidence that Beilein will take us there eventually. If Manny and Pedi Sims come back (cross your fingers), top 3 or 4 in the league, a single digit seed, and a sweet sixteen birth are not unreasonable expectations for next year.
-I'm not an NFL draft expert by any stretch of the imagination, and any time spent thinking about the Lions is wasted time, but it seems to me that a Jay Cutler for the Lions second first round pick (#20) is an obvious deal that would help both the Lions and Denver.
-What the heck is Kentucky thinking? You gotta give a coach at least three years, barring any wrongdoing (like the Kelvin Sampson stuff at IU). I don't know why any established coach without prior connections there would want that job knowing they've run off two pretty decent coaches in the last three years. They just moved up a few spots on my "Teams to root against" list.
-TO in Buffalo?!?! Seriously, that's a joke isn't it? That's like saying that Dennis Leary has been selected as the next Pope, or Rush Limbaugh is the new head of the ACLU. Some things just don't belong together.
-The passing of George Kell earlier this week made me feel really old (and really melancholy). Along with Bob Ufer, Ernie Harwell, and to a lesser extent Sid Abel, Kell was the voice of my sports childhood. You could hear one word from him and you knew who you were listening to. Close your eyes and listen to a few more words and you could see the upper deck in rightfield hanging over the field. You could see the flagpole in deep, deep centerfield in front of the rowdy bleacher creatures. He came from an era when announcers didn't just read the score or the pitch count, but actually painted a picture complete with all the little details that were periphery to the game. His Arkansas drawl was so unique to this area that everyone had their own imitation of it. He was a connection to the Golden Age of baseball for my generation of fans.

More Adjustments and a final bracket

2009-03-15T16:15:00.004-04:00

I increased the bonus for beating a top 50 team and the penalty for losing to a below 200 team. I also increased the road win bonus and home loss penalty. Final ranking (minus the Big Ten championship, which is still ongoing) is up. I also posted the final bracket.
Before anyone pipes up, I offer my critique of my own bracket. Remember my bracket is just a reflection of the rankings, and not an opinion of who should be in, or an attempt to recreate the process that the actual selection committee goes through.

Teams that are in my bracket, but don't belong in the Dance:
Texas A&M
Auburn
San Diego State
Creighton

Teams that are out that should be in:
Wisconsin
Boston College
Maryland
Davidson (I just want to see Curry play some more)

Teams that are ranked too high:
MSU (should be a 2)
Duke (2/3)
Gonzaga (5/6)
Utah State (8/9)
Xavier (4/5)

Teams ranked too low:
North Carolina (1)
Louisville (1)
Memphis (2/1)
Florida State (4/5)
UCLA (5/6)

Tweaking the rankings

2009-03-10T02:18:00.002-04:00

I made some adjustments to the rankings, and consequently to the brackets:

-I increased the weight of opponents' opponents, so that each win or loss of an opponents' opponent counts for 0.4 wins, instead of 0.2. I also added a "quality win" bonus (win over team in top 50) and "bad loss" penalty (loss to team under 200). These changes had the affect of helping major conference teams and hurting teams from smaller conferences.
-I eliminated the scores of games against Division II or lower schools. For most schools this didn't make much of a difference, but it did help some schools who had played just one game against lower level teams because it helped their average. For some of the really small conferences, it hurt the teams because it lowered the overall number of wins in the conference, thereby rewarding fewer points for each win.
-Finally, I adjusted the victory and loss margin rewards/penalties so that they reflected game totals and win / loss totals more accurately. This generally widened the margin between the good and the bad teams.

-For the brackets, in conferences that had finished their champion as of Sunday night, I included them. If not, I used the highest rated team still in the tournament.

For our new readers who felt the need to offer some constructive criticism, please remember that the bracketology is not meant as a prediction of the tournament field, but rather is a projection of the field using only our ranking system, which admittedly is imperfect and is still a work in progress (as evidenced by the changes above). Clearly we don't think Utah State is worthy of such a high seed, or Niagara worthy of a bid at all. But what we are trying to do is create a mathematical model that will simulate the strength and weaknesses of all teams that we can all observe, and thereby predict future results.

The List

2009-03-02T15:22:00.003-05:00

Everybody has a list, even if they don't call it that. You know, that list of people you would just assume go away and never come back: The late night infomercial guy; the annoying co-worker who never pulls their own weight; the teen idol with little to no discernible talent other than their physical attractiveness to 13-year old girls that keeps showing up on your TV; the addle-minded ex-player-turned-color-commentator who is searching painfully for a catch phrase and keeps missing horribly; the third-grade bully who tormented you and keeps reappearing in your nightmares every August right before school starts again. Whether we realize or not, if any one of us were king (or queen) for a day, we'd have a whole host of people we'd love to banish.

I would like to present, from time to time, some excerpts from my list. Call it my "Guantanamo List", or "People I'd banish for no reason other than the fact that I'm in charge and don't need a reason."

There will be no order for these names, just post them as I think of them.

1) George Steinbrenner -- Ever since I was a little kid I've hated the Yankees, mostly because of the Boss. He is brash, arrogant, and not afraid to exploit the inequities in revenue created by being based in the nation's media market. I've always said, if the Yankees went 1-161 one year, I'd fret about the one that got away.

2) Terrell Owens -- Get over yourself already. I just wish this guy would go see a shrink, deal with his self-hatred due to his suppressed sexuality, and come out of the closet.

3) Barry Bonds -- A spoiled brat (read about his time at ASU) who got upset when he wasn't the center of the baseball world, he decided to cheat and steal baseball's most cherished record.

4) Jim Tressel -- True story, I could have gotten rid of him already, but chose not to. In May of 2006 I was at a work conference that was held in Columbus on the campus of OSU at the Fawcett Center, which is right across the road from the Football practice facility and offices. One day as I was leaving the conference for lunch I was stopped at a stop sign in the parking lot when a somewhat slight older gentleman wearing glasses and a very stylish sweater vest walked in front of my rental car towards the conference center. Turns out once a week during the off-season the football team eats lunch together down the hall from where my conference was being held. When I realized who was cutting across my path, I looked down at my foot pressed firmly against the brake. I would be lying if I said I didn't think about what would happen if I removed my foot and hit the accelerator. By the time I got done calculating how fast I would have to go to do real damage, what my chances of getting caught were, and how much I'd crap I'd have to hear on ESPN about what a saint he was, he was long gone, and the car behind me was blowing its horn. Oh well, he probably isn't worth 20 to life, especially when I'd have to spend it in an Ohio prison (imagine how many ex-buckeyes I'd run into). Of course, If I were king, I could simply banish him, with no consequences ;-)

more names later

Bracketology Moved

2009-02-22T13:17:00.002-05:00

I posted the Bracketology at the top of the page. It seemed silly to keep posting the same Google doc. I will also change the layout a little to fit the page better. Latest update coming later today or tommorrow.

Bracketology 2/15

2009-02-16T01:59:00.001-05:00

Click on the 2-15 link for the most recent Bracketology.
Some of the highlights:
-UNC's win over Duke moves them up two lines to a one seed.
-Butler's home loss to Loyola drops them two lines
-Huge game Monday night between Pitt and UConn
-St. Mary's is dropping like a stone, from a #5 seed three weeks ago to a #11 this week.
-Bracketbusters comes up this next weekend, that could shake up the field quite a bit

Bracketology 2/8

2009-02-09T00:22:00.002-05:00

Weird goings on with the brackets as conference play in the top conferences has cost some of the bigger schools their spotm while some smaller conferences have snuck in and grabbed a few extra bids. Gone from the bracket this week are Georgetown from the Big East, Kentucky from the SEC, Miami from the ACC, and Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin from the Big Ten. Meanwhile, the Mountain West got four teams in, and the tiny MAAC conference got two, including a number six seed in Siena.

Still plenty of time for things to change. The bracket buster weekend is coming up for the mid-majors and things will continue to shake out in the power conferences.

Bracketology 1/25

2009-01-27T04:08:00.002-05:00

Offered without comment:

Bracketology Jan 18

2009-01-19T21:07:00.004-05:00

I struggled a little bit with the best way to present this, and decided that Google Docs allowed me to fit the most information into a post, even though it doesn't look nearly as pretty as some other, more time-consuming options. Note that each week has their own sheet. Last Four In, First Four Out, and Number of Teams per conference are included in the doc for this week, just scroll down. So here it is:

So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish!

2009-01-11T17:37:00.002-05:00

Assorted Thoughts about the Bowl season and the end of the worst college football season ever:

-The national championship game would have been a lot better if the television coverage wasn't so amazingly bad. As a rule of thumb, championship events should never be covered by networks that don't have regular season broadcasts. That's why you won't find me complaining too much about ESPN televising any championship. Yes they tend to employ more than their fair share of mouth-breathing idiots, but they are generally technically proficient and don't do stupid stuff like cut back from commercials too late or scream into the mic about how big this fourth down is when it is actually third down.
-Bowl records are always cited by the mainstream media as evidence of the relative strengths of each conference, but they are actually don't tell us much at all. The Pac 10's 5-0 record this year was as much a function of who they played as the strength of the conference. Likewise, while there is no doubt that this was a down year for the Big Ten, if OSU had not made the BCS, and all the Big Ten teams slid down a spot, the conferences record would have been two or three games better.
-All non-BCS games should be played on or before January 1. Period.
-Rich Rodriguez did a couple of interviews on WTKA a few days back and he was asked about a college football playoff. Most of his response was boilerplate, "we want what is best for the kids" type stuff, but he did make one interesting comment about a potential "Plus-Three" format. Now I would love to see a 16 team playoff with all conference champs getting an auto bid. But any system that destroys the bowls has no realistic chance of being implemented in our lifetime, the big money conferences won't allow it. But a "Plus-Three", where the top 8 teams play in the four BCS games, and then the winners of those games advance to national semifinals might actually be a plausible alternative.
-With so few games on January 1, I decided to watch my copy of last year's Cap One Bowl vs Florida. It's amazing how long ago that game seemed, yet they started the broadcast talking about what a great citizen Tim Tebow was. It was enough to make Thom Brennaman cry.
-As I mentioned before, our version of the Golden Rankings had a horrible bowl season, going 14-18. Just like the BCS, we will tinker with the formulas in the off-season to make sure it fails in a completely new way next year.
-Only 237 days until kickoff against Western Michigan. 90 days until the Spring Game at the Big House. 24 days until national signing day.

Final 2008 Golden Football Rankings

2009-01-09T00:04:00.002-05:00

Some bowl and final season thoughts coming this weekend. For now, the last installment of our version of the Golden Rankings:

Florida jumps into first with their win over OU, Texas finishes second, Utah third, OU fourth with USC fifth. Vanderbilt and Arizona were the biggest risers in the bowl season, with their upsets of Boston College and BYU respectively. The biggest loser was Central Michigan, wtih their loss to a mediocre Florida Atlantic, and the MAC's O for the bowl season.

In the conference rankings, Florida's win helped the SEC jump from fourth to first. Not much else changed.

Bracketology 2009

2009-01-08T00:36:00.007-05:00

A new year, brings new bracket projection based on our Roundball Rankings.
As usual:
-Teams were placed based on the snaking method, with the top 2 in the same region as the lowest #1 seed, the highest #3 with the lowest #2, and so on.
-Teams were moved within their bands to avoid interconference matchups before the elite eight
-Teams with the conferences listed are autobid teams
-Regional sites were awarded based on the location of the top seed.
-Brackets are based on rankings as of Sunday Night, 1/4

Last Four In:
Creighton
Siena
LSU
Evansville

First Four Out:
Iowa
Purdue
Miami
Rhode Island

Bids by Conference:
Big East 8
ACC 7
Big Ten 6
Big Twelve 5
Pac Ten 5
SEC 4
MVC 3
A10 2
MAAC 2
Mountain West 2

Conference Season Starts

2009-01-05T00:41:00.002-05:00

With about five or six minutes left in today's game at Crisler, this promising basketball season looked to be reaching a crisis point. After getting demolished on New Year's eve in game against Wisconsin that wasn't as close as the final 13 point margin might suggest, Beilein's boys were seven points down to Illinois. They were losing for the same reasons they lost to Wisconsin -- defense. Illinois, while not a huge team, was using a size advantage created by our lineup, essentially four guards and DeShawn Sims, to get easy shots down low or kick outs for wide open jumpers, created by help defense in the post.
I started to wonder whether this team would be able to survive in the Big Ten with its dearth of quality post defense. if we had to rely on outscoring teams in half court games, it would be a long conference season, and our hopes of finally playing meaningful games in March might be dashed.
But then something happened. They started fighting through screens on the baseline. They started getting their hands up and moving quicker in the 1-3-1. In the second half, every defensive possession, you could see the rest of the team on the bench waving their hands, exhorting the team on. And they got some balanced scoring, five players in double figures, and one more at 9 points.
Perhaps the most significant contribution in the game came from Zach Gibson, who was 4-5 for ten points, including two dunks and a three. He also had a good block and couple of assists. We are a different team when he plays like he does today. He helps our post defense tremendously, and makes us a more complete lineup.

New basketball rankings are posted. Big changes in the top ten with the start of conference play. Pittsburgh jumps up to #1 with the big win against Georgetown. MSU jumps up on the strength of two road wins at Minnesota and Northwestern. Gonzaga continues their free fall with a loss to Utah. Top overall riser was Drexel, up 93 spots with two road wins over Hofstra and St. Joseph's. Biggest loser was George Washington, on a four game losing streak, including losing three at the Rainbow classic.

Why not Utah?

2009-01-04T22:18:00.006-05:00

My biggest beef with college football's postseason is not that the best team doesn't always win the championship. It often does, and no playoff system in any sport guarantees the top team will win it all. It's not that the postseason isn't exciting. Although there are some boring games, games like the Texas-USC Rose Bowl or the Boise - OU Fiesta Bowl were classics that stand up with any Superbowl or postseason game in any sport.
My biggest complaint has always been that in any given year at least half the teams in the highest division of college football have no mathematical chance of winning the championship. no other sport in the world eliminates more than half its teams before even one game is played. Why even bother having so many teams in that classification if their only purpose is to serve as a Washington Generals-type patsy for the big name schools.
For that reason, I feel that Utah deserves the national championship, no matter what happens with OU and Florida. If Utah can't win a national championship as the only undefeated team in the country when they beat the team that beat USC, beat a TCU team that was the only team to beat Boise State, and when they dominated an Alabama team that gave Florida all it could handle, than why bother having them (or any other non-BCS team) in FBS? No other team has done as much this season to earn the title.
The BCS is victory by definition. It's a national championship, but only for the "true" teams that meet our pre-defined definition of what a national championship team should be.

New Basketball Rankings

2008-12-30T01:24:00.003-05:00

As you may have noticed, we finally figured out the three column thing. From here on out, all new rankings will appear on the left sidebar. Some times I will offer comment on the new rankings, sometimes not. I will also try and post conference rankings from time to time.

Not much to report this week, as most of the top teams played few significant games. Top 5 teams remained the same, and two new teams joined the top ten, Stanford and Minnesota, while two others, Xavier and Ohio State dropped out with home losses to Butler and West Virginia respectively. Top riser this week was Texas Pan-American, biggest loser was Indiana who lost at home to Northeastern and Lipscomb.

Bowl trouble

2008-12-27T16:42:00.003-05:00

Eight games into the bowl season and our modified Golden rankings are 1-7 in predicting outcomes. Now, a couple of these games had teams that were within just a few places of each other, but the results are still troubling.

So the question is, how do we modify the rankings next to get a more accurate prediction model? When you look at our seven losses, you see that five of the seven winners in those games had higher schedule strengths than the team that was predicted to win. This suggests that perhaps a tweak to the formula to add more emphasis to the opponent opponent's wins. Perhaps 0.4 points per opponent opponent's wins as opposed to the current 0.2 points. This is something that Golden had mentioned he might do with his version of the rankings, so it is worth checking out after all the bowl games are done.

Another modification that I had considered involves the FCS teams. Right now wins over FCS teams are discounted based on the winning percentage of FCS teams vs FBS teams versus the winning percentage of FBS teams against FBS teams (.500 by definition). it occurred to me that the FCs winning percentage should be compared to the road winning percentage of FBS teams, since FCS teams never get home games against FBS teams. I will also investigate this after the season.

Journalism Ethics

2008-12-23T11:34:00.004-05:00

I have a friend who works as a copy editor for the Detroit News. Given all the shakeup the last few weeks at the News and the industry as a whole, we've had a number of conversations about the future of the newspaper business, and how the papers can change to make themselves viable in the digital age.The conclusion that both of have come to is that the online versions of the newspapers need to be more like the most popular blogs, willing to link to stuff from other sites, and producing content and analysis several times a day.

But the holdup, from his perspective has been that the management at the paper is holding on to the ideal of a "Journalistic Integrity" that sets the newspaper industry above the blogs, recruiting websites, and other online media. In their minds, the popularity of the traditional media comes from the trust of the public knowing that news is gathered the "right way". For that reason, many in the mainstream media look down on the blogging community. They look at the new media as undercutting the traditional business model.

There is some truth to that view. Certainly the newspaper looses a lot of effectiveness when the "current" information it is telling us is out of date by the time it is printed because it has been posted hours earlier. And there are certainly many blogs out there (this one included) that offer opinions and "analysis" that does not come with the same amount of research and verified sources as a traditional newspaper column.

But what the newspaper management fails to see is that the pleas to journalism ethics or the credibility of the traditional media vis-a-vee the blogs goes out the window when you employ columnists whose sole reason for writing certain things is to sell papers.

Take the recent dustup with Detroit News columnist Rob Parker and Lions head coach Rod Marinelli. At the end of a string of questions where Parker was trying to get Marinelli to say anything that wasn't a cliche about the abysmal Lions defense and the DC, Jon Barry, who is Marinelli's son-in-law, Parker asked Marinelli if he wished his daughter had married a better defensive coordinator. Now at 0-15, Marinelli deserves all the criticism he gets. Barry, who was the only one interviewed two years ago, and has presided over two of the worst defenses in NFL history, deserves all the criticism he gets. And it is fair to question Marinelli about nepotism when the only appearant qualification of his DC is his relationship to the head coach. But clearly Parker's comment went over the line, and he should be reprimanded or suspended. Criticize the coach, leave the family out of it.

What I think this illustrates, and the reason I bring this issue up today, is the hypocrisy of the print media, the thing that my friend has been banging his head against. On one hand, the newspaper elite claim superiority over the non-traditional media because of journalistic ethics. Yet, on the other hand, they employ hacks like Parker, who don't have a problem violating those ethics, or at least skirting them, to sell more papers or create more traffic at the newspaper websites. We've seen it time and time again when it comes to the treatment of Rich Rodriguez and coverage of the team over the last year. We see it almost every major media market, where each paper has at least one sports columnist whose job it is to increase readership by writing stuff that is so outrageous that it pisses everyone off.

The bottom line, in my mind, is that the best sports blogs are successful because of their outstanding writing, excellent analysis, and humerous takes on the world of sports. Until the newspaper industry realizes that there is no tenure anymore, that the best player will play regardless of class, and that they will only be successful if they employ excellent writers and commentaters who can provide real analysis on a consistent basis irregardless of what their degree or background, they will continue on their path towards the scrapheap of history.

Roundball Rankings, Dec 22

2008-12-21T23:47:00.002-05:00

Not a lot of change in the top ten from last week, with only one team, Syracuse, who lost at home to Cleveland State falling out of the top ten. Clemson strengthened their place on top with a Sunday blowout at Miami. The top of the rankings are dominated by the ACC (5 teams), the Big East (6 teams), and the Big Ten (6 teams).

Top Riser -- Robert Morris, up 58 places
Biggest Faller -- Portland, down 75 places
Toughest Schedule -- Jacksonville, opponent average 87.75 place
Easiest Schedule -- Tennessee State, 254.14

In the conference rankings, the top 4 reamin unchanged, with the Pac 10 and SEC flip flopping at 4 and 5 and well behind the top 4. Despite an excellent saturday by the Big Ten (wins over Texas, Lousiville, and Davidson), the ACC still expanded their lead. On the other end, the SWAC has been quite impressive in their putridness. They have three winless teams and no one with more than 3 wins. Combined they are 14-87, despite playing 13 games against Division II and NAIA teams.

Roundball Rankings, Dec 15

2008-12-15T01:35:00.002-05:00

The season debut of the Golden basketball rankings sees Clemson and Ohio State leading more highly ranked teams such as Oklahoma, Xavier, UConn, and Pitt.

Conference rankings have the ACC on top (surprise, surprise), but the Big Ten following not to far behind.

Golden Rankings, final regular season

2008-12-10T00:45:00.002-05:00

In the wee hours of Sunday morning, about 3,000 miles away from anything resembling a Harris poll voter, the Cincinnati Bearcats came from 10 down in the fourth quarter in the last game of the college football regular season to beat Hawaii, and allowed Oklahoma to finally pass Texas in the modified Golden rankings into first place. Texas finished second, only a few hundredths of a point ahead of Florida.

Top Riser (FBS): Buffalo, up 20 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): South Florida, down 15
Top Riser (FCS) : Albany, up 13
Biggest Loser (FCS): Jacksonville, down 17
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Duke, Opponent average - 44.00
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Ball State, 126.85
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Delaware, 99.00
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Bryant, 191.11

In conference rankings, the ACC stayed on top, the Big 12 second, and the SEC just ahead of the Big East.

Still basking in the afterglow

2008-12-07T13:58:00.003-05:00

-I find it highly ironic that one of the biggest days of the year for college football, that as I watched Sportscenter last night I kept wishing they'd finish with their college football talk so that get to the college basketball news. I'm kicking myself a little bit for not buying tickets to the game earlier this week when I found some online, but am hopeful there will other big games this year. I wonder how much tickets to the Big Ten tournament are.
-I also find it ironic that the same school year that saw an end to our great bowl streak, may also see an end to our awful non-big dance streak of ten years.
-Like most of the country, I get the feeling that Florida and Oklahoma are the best teams in the country, and despite OU's recent big bowl history, I get the feeling that their game could be a classic on the lines of UT / USC a few years back. That being said, I can't help but feel bad for the Texas fans. I don't know how much more you could expect from your team than they got from theirs this year, yet they still have to watch their arch-rival and a team that lost to a mediocre Ole Miss at home play for the national championship.
-If the Sugar Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl were smart, they'd let Texas go the Sugar to play Alabama, and invite Utah and Boise State to the Fiesta to play a sort of mid-major national championship game. That way, along with the championship game and the USC/PSU Rose Bowl you'd have all 8 teams that have a reasonable claim to a national title shot playing each other.
-I love what UCLA and USC did with both wearing their home jerseys. In the big scheme of things one timeout at the start of a game doesn't really affect much, and the nod to tradition was very cool. I wouldn't mind seeing us do this against OSU one year.
-I don't get the Lane Kiffin hire for Tennessee. It just strikes me as far less inspired a choice than someone like Brian Kelly, and has Callahan to Nebraska written all over it.
-Just when you thought that Washington couldn't get any worse, Cal's running back Jahvid Best runs for 311 yards on only 19 carries! I still find it hard to believe that Washington could be that bad. I mean outside of USC (and maybe UCLA), the Huskies have the most football tradition in the Pac Ten, and somehow, in a little less than a decade (they were in the national title discussion in 2000) they've become possibly the worst program in FBS.

-Final regular season rankings will be up soon, as well as a look at what a playoff would look like if I ran the circus. The season's first basketball rankings coming tomorrow.

DeShawn Sims is quickly becoming one of my favorite Michigan Basketball players

2008-12-06T23:04:00.005-05:00

It's not just his improved play this season that has endeared him to me, it's some of the things he's said off the court. Before the Maryland game, he told the Detroit Free Press,

"People want Michigan to succeed. As much as the nation and everybody around wants us to succeed, we have to do the job by succeeding and making it happen. I look around and see so much Michigan stuff everywhere I go. It just puts it in my heart that we have to bring the program back for the fans. We're playing for more than ourselves."

Then today after the huge win over Duke, he told the Detroit News:

"Sometimes you start to question yourself when you're not getting a lot of minutes. Coach Beilein believed in me. He's building a foundation and I'm glad I'm a part of it. He puts the c, the o, the a , the c and the h in coach. And he coaches you on an interpersonal level. It's amazing. I'm a better player than I've ever been and I know more than I've ever known."

In those quotes I hear a young man starting to grow up and starting to find his home. It reminds me a little of conversations I've had with some of the UofM students I've worked with in Academic Games. No matter where you come from, or what your major is, there is something special about being at school when the world opens up for you, and you realize that you can make a place for yourself in the world. Over the last few years, Sims has had a lot of times when he could have left Michigan, and nobody would have blamed him. Heck, it took a big leap of faith for him to even come to Michigan, when his former HS coach won't even talk to the Michigan coaching staff now.

It's clear that this team is going to be significantly better than any we've had in a long time, and has a good chance of actually going dancing. But equally important, this team is taking a look of a team that you want to root for, that you feel good about representing your school. Given the recent history of the UofM basketball, that is the perhaps the most important development.

Golden Rankings, Week 14

2008-11-30T21:47:00.002-05:00

Texas remains at Number One, despite Oklahoma's impressive win over Oklahoma State. Although the Sooners got a big boost from their Bedlam win, jumping up from #4 to #2, the Horns got extra points from the same game, and got a boost when Kansas won their seventh game, and Rice won their 8th. Utah dropped, as expected, because neither them nor any of their opponents played.

Not as much movement, with over half the teams done with their season. Most of FCS is done, so the top movers in both directions were playoff participants.
Top Riser (FBS): Kansas, up 18 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Buffalo, down 21
Top Riser (FCS) : New Hampshire, up 11
Biggest Loser (FCS): Cal Poly, down 24
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Duke, Opponent average - 44.58
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Ball State, 132.75
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Delaware, 98.55
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Bryant, 191.89

In the conference rankings, the ACC jumped ahead of both the SEC and the Big 12 on the strength of a 3-1 weekend against bowl bound SEC teams. As noted here before, the ACC may not have any dominant teams, but they don't really have any bad teams either. The top four teams in schedule strength are ACC teams.

Why Texas should be in the Big 12 Championship game (and other assorted takes)

2008-11-30T13:10:00.003-05:00

This is a place that I'm sure that Big 12 ADs wish they'd never be in. A three-way tie to be broken by the BCS poll, and by extension, by voters in the coaches and Harris poll, many of whom might have a vested interest in one team or another. It has been pointed out elsewhere that Mack Brown, if he chose to do so, could vote OU out of the poll, thereby putting Texas in the championship game.

That being said, it is the system they have, and two out of the three teams will be unfairly snubbed. In my mind, the team that should get the nod is Texas.

It's clear that Oklahoma has the best offense in the conference, and maybe the best in the country. They have scored over 60 points in their last four games, and over 50 in 8 of 12. Their offensive line is dominating everyone in sight, Sam Bradford is clinical in his accuracy, they have a gaggle of talented running backs and receivers and you get the feeling they could name their score in just about every game.

But it's just as clear that Texas has the best defense in the conference. Texas is the only one of the contenders that has played all the top teams in the conference (OU, Texas, Tech, Kansas and Missouri -- although Nebraska is probably better than KU), and has held each on of them to less points than their season average. They are first in the conference in Scoring, Rushing, and Total Defense, and second in Pass Efficiency Defense.

Each of the three teams went 4-1 in their toughest five games, but Texas played only 2 of those at home, with a road win at Kansas, a neutral game win against OU, and a road loss to Texas Tech. OU played 3 of five at home, with only the road win at OSU and loss to Texas away from Norman. Tech also played three games at home, with the road loss to OU and a win against Kansas. Furthermore, Texas played the second half of their only loss without their best defensive player, Brian Orakpo. Does OU win the Bedlam game if Bradford goes down in the second half? Bottom line, the best two teams in the league played on a neutral field and Texas won. End of story.

Other stuff:
-I found it appropriate that Minnesota lost its last game at the Metrodome 55-0 to Iowa. When The Gophers started playing their home games at the Hubert H. Humphrey, they were one of the top 15 teams all-time, having won almost 64% of their games. Since that time they have won only 41.67% of the time. They are .520 at home, which is inflated quite a bit by a number of FCS and lower FBS opponents. They were 0-12 in the battle for the Little Brown Jug, and 0-11 against the Buckeyes. Attendance at the off-campus facility was awful, centering around 40 to 45k out of 64k capacity for most of their history there. This is not to say that the new on-campus facility will cure all that ails Gopher football, but it's a good place to start.
-I also can't help but think there is some sort of metaphor for Gopher Football in this story.
-For all of those making fun of the ACC this year, better get your licks in now, because it looks like it will be much improved next year. Miami and FSU are young and very athletic. Cutcliffe has done a great job at Duke. Carolina will be better if Butch Davis doesn't bolt. Clemson might finally stop being so wildly inconsistent with a new coaching staff in place. And Paul Johnson has done wonders at Georgia Tech this year. Give him one more year to perfect his offense, and it will be nearly unstoppable (if it isn't already)
-BTW, for the first time in forever, the ACC had a winning record against the SEC this year, despite Florida's demolishing of FSU and Miami. They've jumped ahead of both the SEC and the Big 12 in the most recent Golden Rankings (to be posted later today).
-Although I'd like to see USC play somewhere other than the Rose Bowl, I'm glad that Penn State gets a crack at them. Anyone who wants to include USC in the championship discussion should include Penn State since the Knitknees beat Oregon State by 31 and USC lost by a TD to them.
-One of things I enjoy about the Thanksgiving weekend is watching the Michigan High School championship football games from Ford Field. Eight games involving teams from throughout the state running all sorts of offenses, from pro-set, to the spread option, to the wing-T, and even to the single-wing. It's like a walk through the history of offensive football. This year it was a big year for the western side of the state, with three teams from Muskegon winning championships, along with East Grand Rapids, Holland, and Rockford.

Catching up: A response to a Monday post from Doc Saturday

2008-11-30T11:44:00.005-05:00

I meant to post this when I saw it on Tuesday but holiday plans and all interfered.

On Monday, the esteemed Dr. Saturday went off on the BCS computers a little, citing the ranking of James Madison, the highest rated team in the FCS in most of the computers. His point, in brief, was that if James Madison can lose to 4-8 Duke by 24 points they have no business being ranked in the top 40, much less the top 25, as they were in the Sagarin ratings as of Monday. As someone who has spent a fair amount of time the last couple of years working on a ranking system, I felt the need to stick up for the computer geeks.

While Doc does mention that eliminating margin of victory does distort the ranking somewhat, he still chides the rankings for missing differences in teams that appear to be blatantly obvious to anyone who has watched more than a minute of college football this year

What he fails to mention, and I think he probably knows, is that the purpose of the computer rankings is different than the purpose of the polls. While it is not clearly stated anywhere, I would guess that most human poll voters vote based on who they think is a better team. Computer rankings, on the other hand, are a mathematical measure of which team has had the better season. They are the ultimate resume rankers. Just as the resume rankers produced rankings early in the season that made little sense (East Carolina at #1) to people expecting rankings to be a measure of team strength, computer rankings don't make sense if you expect them to be a measure of team strength, instead of season strength.

As with most resume rankers, the more data input into the rankings, the more they tend to converge with the general consensus of which teams are best. The problem that most of the computer ranking systems have with FCS teams is that there are limited opportunities to measure FCS teams against FBS teams, and most of those opportunities are slanted towards the FBS teams (i.e. FCS teams never get home games). Most would agree that if James Madison played more than one FBS team they wouldn't be ranked in the top 25. But until we have a system where FCS teams get multiple games against FBS teams, the computer rankings will be imperfect.

The computer rankings are fine for what they set out to do, measure teams based on what they have accomplished in the season, as opposed to some sort of intangible assessment of which teams are best.

Golden Rankings, Week 13

2008-11-26T03:02:00.002-05:00

Texas remains #1, despite Utah's win over BYU and Oklahoma's destruction of Texas Tech. The reason is schedule strength. Unlike most of the other top contenders, the Longhorns didn't play an FCS team this year, and don't have the coresponding low point game. Looking ahead, an OU win over Ok STate, or Alabama win over Florida are likely to move them into the top two positions, ahead of Texas, who will suffer a hit, even if they destroy A&M, and Utah, who is done with their season.

Top Riser (FBS) - Tennessee, up 30 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Notre Dame, down 26
Top Riser (FCS) : Jacksonville, up 22
Biggest Loser (FCS): Lafayette, down 41
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Duke, Opponent average - 49.82
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Ball State, 139.73
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Delaware, 98.91
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Sacred Heart, 192.78

Conference Rankings:

Mailbag!!

2008-11-24T16:29:00.007-05:00

Wow, somebody actually reads this crap and cares enough to send me an email. Actually, it's just my brother in Texas, weighing in on the season we just completed. but he makes some good points and it's worth reprinting here.

I had a few thoughts about the Michigan season:
- A#1 - How can we still be fumbling on special teams by the end of the year after suffering through fiascoes like the ND game? I don't care how fast they are, Odoms and Cissoko shouldn't still have been taking kicks.

How very Lloyd Carr of you. People always complained that Carr was risk adverse, that he would always sacrifice play making ability for sure handedness. That being said, I think I agree with this, after the ND game we should taken Odoms out of the punt returner role.

-With the limited offensive tools Michigan had, how come Rodriguez didn't play field position ball. Lets remember there are two aspects to the offense he normally runs - one the play design, and two the game plan. A big part of that game plan seems to be a fast paced offense. What I don't understand is how, with one of the best punters in the nation and a fair run defense, Rodriguez couldn't have made the obvious choice to slow his offense down and try and win low scoring games. It doesn't mean giving up his "system" because you can still run alot of the same plays. It just means teaching players 3-4 yard gains are good. and c'mon - in basketball the inferior team
always tries to keep it slow and low, so they can shorten the game from 40 mins to a 4 min game.

Again, there is a certain amount of truth to what you say. However one thing to remember is that the zone read, and the zone stretch are just one part of the RRod offense. The bubble screen is another key part, and our QBs proved all year they couldn't execute this simple throw with precision. This seriously hampered our ability to be consistent on offense. I don't think we could have sustained an all rushing offense against good teams without at least a threat of the pass.

-We have at least three incredible running backs. I wonder how we would have done with a wishbone all year, lol

Incredible? That's a little strong I think. We have four good, but injury prone running backs, who may have some potential for future growth. If we ever could have gotten them all healthy at once, we might have been able to run some more two running back sets. However, the wishbone requires a bruising, run-away beer truck type, and we just didn't have that (no Kevin Grady wasn't really an option) Besides, I don't think it's wise for a coach to try and run an offense they are not familiar with. That's an invitation to disaster (see Notre Dame, start of 07 season)

-Our quarterback situation is atrocious. Like I said, maybe Faegin from the wishbone? This and the fumbling seem like our two biggest season killers

True, true. In retrospect, expecting so much out of this season when we knew we had a walk-on starting at QB was probably foolishly optimistic.

-Rodriguez clearly designs some very good offensive plays. However there seems to be an attitude of taking as many shots as possible at a low success rate, as opposed to a more traditional approach of fewer, higher quality plays.

I think you are dead wrong on this. One of the beauties of Rodriguez's system is that it takes a number of key ideas and applies in them in slightly different ways to make them more effective. I think that's why we ran the ball so well against Penn State, even though they knew we couldn't pass the ball worth a crap. We slightly changed the blocking on our zone stretch, and it confused them for about a quarter and a half.

My problem with the offensive play calling, if I have any, is that it seemed to me at times we didn't adjust to things the defense was doing. Perhaps that was a function of limited capability of our players, but it seems like some halftime adjustments could have helped tremendously in some games.

But of course, the bigger issue here is that the real reason we didn't make a bowl was the defense. Statistically this was one of the worst defenses in Michigan history. With something like 8 returning starters. We played too much 3-3-5. We couldn't tackle. We had safties and Line backers who don't understand basic geometry and how it applies to pursuit of ball carriers. If our defense had been comparable to last year, we would be 6-6 right now, preparing to watch our boys in Ford Field against CMU or Ball State.

-Don't know who to blame here, probably not Rodriguez though, but what makes a great college program is continuity. Not just among coaches, but among players too. I bet a larger percentage of Detroit Lions players/staff were involved with the Lions the year before than Michigan players/personnel were with UM the previous year.

Uh, that's why its called a transition. If we wanted the same people around, we should have hired Brady Hoke or Mike Debord.

-I think it's easy to underestimate, from the outside, how hard it is to control and turn around a team that's doing so poorly. This gives me hope for next year and makes me worry a bit less about our later losses. Just a bit though.

But, that could also be a reason why next year will be tough - because they are still trying to erase this year's bad momentum.

-OSU is not really that good. Way better than us, but still.

By OSU standards, no. But most programs in the country would kill to end an off year in a BCS bowl game.

-Next year will be better, and we will make a bowl game. But we won't be in the hunt till we have a special QB. I can't wait till next year when all the talk about Michigan will be about our trio of awesome running backs!

Wish I could be as optimistic as you. I think our offense will be substantially improved by year end, but our defense may take a huge step back, if that's possible, especially if Brandon Graham leaves for the league. My expectations for next year are the same as they were this year: just make a bowl! That scares me.

Playoff?!?

2008-11-23T11:11:00.003-05:00

Cue Jim Mora.

With the final FCS games completed yesterday, we can now project the FCS brackets, based on the modified Golden Rankings
A few disclaimers:
-I'm pretty sure the NCAA doesn't seed the teams 1 through 16, just seeds the top four teams, and moves the rest of the teams around to minimize travel time. I didn't do that.
-I moved teams around so they avoid first round matchups with inter-conference foes.
-Automoatic Bids are listed with their conference

#16 Colgate (Patriot) at #1 James Madison (Colonial)
#9 Richmond at #8 Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley)

#13 Weber State (Big Sky) at #4 Villanova
#12 South Carolina State (MEAC) at #5 Northern Iowa

#14 Central Arkansas (Southland) at #3 Montana
#11 Maine at #6 Wofford

#10 New Hampshire at #7 Cal Poly
#15 Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley) vs #2 Appalachian State (Southern)

We'll see how accurate these turn out to be. Announcement comes later today. There's a Big East game tonight, so the total rankings will come out tommorrow. I'll also post some thoughts on the weekend's games (ugh)

Ohowihateohiostate

2008-11-21T22:47:00.003-05:00

"Liquidate Ohio State
And humble Woody Hayes
They breed a lot of cattle in Columbus,
Send them out to graze
HA HA HA
Knock them off their ivory towers!
Send them running into the showers!
Down with Ohio State!
It's a know-nothing party school."

No expectations for tommorrow, just hope. I will ask whatever cosmic forces that took Bo two days before the biggest game in this rivalry to give us one back tommorrow, and let the team play with his spirit in their hearts. What the mind can concieve, the man can achieve.

Welcome Back!

2008-11-21T12:09:00.003-05:00

I remember exactly where and when I last cared as much about Michigan basketball as I do right now. It was the morning of October 11, 1997 and my dad and I were on our way to Michigan Stadium to see the 4-0 Michigan football team play Northwestern, a team that had beaten them two years in a row. The pregame show on the radio announced that Steve Fisher had been fired as Men's basketball coach, just a few weeks before practices were to begin, because of the investigation into the activities of one Ed Martin At the time I was furious at the lack of loyalty shown by the University towards the man who had brought them their only national championship, and had brought in the Fab 5. All through the football game, all we talked about was Fisher, Martin, and the basketball team.

Of course, as more info came out, my opinion on Steve Fisher changed. And although I remained a Michigan basketball fan, my interest began to wane on that day. I watched Brian Ellerbee run a talented team into the ground by recruiting deadbeats, projects no one else wanted, and Webster look-a-likes. I cursed the TV when Tom Izzo left his starters in and ran up the score on a hapless Michigan team. I died a little with each late season choke job by Amker's teams, and with each recruiting near-miss. I prayed for years that they would get rid of Ellerbee, waited a few years, and then prayed a few more for them to do the same to Amaker. And little by little, my passion for basketball died. Although I would still watch the games and would check the scores, I never expected much, except to be disappointed if I allowed myself to believe anything positive could happen.

All that changed at about 11:30pm last night when Anthony Wright fed a perfect backdoor pass to a cutting DeShawn Sims who slammed it home emphatically for his seventeenth and eighteenth points of the night to give Michigan a four point lead over the #4 team in the country with :34 seconds to go in the game. I jumped off the coach and screamed at the top of my lungs, probably causing my brother in Austin, with whom I was on the phone, to go temporarily deaf in his left ear. I ran around the room pumping my fist not holding the phone in the air while my phone exploded with text messages from all of my friends who were still up doing the same thing as I was: Watching a game with no expectation of victory, just a slight sliver of hope that maybe, just maybe we could see some progress from last year.

Now this win doesn't make us a top ten team, it doesn't even make us a tournament team. There are bound to be ups and downs throughout the season and into the future. But it does mean that we are on the right track, and the light we see at the end of the tunnel is not an oncoming train. For the first time in a decade, that little part of me that had been slowly fading away bit by bit has returned. It's the part of me that used to idolize Ricky Green almost as much as I idolized Ricky Leach. It's the part of me that remembers walking up the driveway, reading the paper that the Judge, Antoine Joubert had signed with Michigan. It's the part of me that would go crazy when Steve Stokyo would enter the game, because he was the original human victory cigar. It's the part of me that would yell "Hell ya" with every Loy Vaught rebound, every Gary Grant Steal, and every Glen Rice triple. It's the part of me that danced in the light rain on South University with 10,000 other kids when Rumeal Robinson sunk two free throws to give us our basketball championship.

God, it's good to have a basketball program we can be proud of again.

This and That

2008-11-19T23:20:00.002-05:00

-Yeah Vanderbilt!! For the first time in almost a generation, the Commodores are going bowling, by virtue of their win over Kentucky. In this season of ultimate suffering for Michigan fans, something like Vandy's win helps to put things in perspective. Yes no bowl sucks, but can you imagine no bowl for the next 25 years?
-Mark Dantonio would do a lot better as a coach if he could just stop sticking his foot in his mouth at press conferences. Last year, of course, he got into a war of words with Michigan RB Mike Hart after losing to Michigan. Now this week, when asked about Saturday's Michigan / Ohio State clash responded that with a "Go Bucks" Now normally an MSU rooting against Michigan would be no big story. But in this case, State needs a Michigan win along with an MSU win over Penn State to win the Big Ten title outright and go to the Rose Bowl. So Dantonio would be willing to trade State's first Rose Bowl in two decades, and only their second in forty years to see Michigan lose its final game of the year in a season that long ago lost any meaning for Wolverine fans. In other words, he essentially told spartan fans that hating Michigan is more important than rooting for Michigan State. The fact that some many State fans agree with that sentiment tells you a lot about why they have been a second rate program for the last 40 years.
-I think the Rodriguez "Get a Life" comment was overplayed and taken out of context, but I do wish that he would just put his head down, quit trying to explain anything, and work on making next year and the year after that better. We had a bad year, people are going to kick us when we are down, nothing we can do about that. We just have to work our way through it.
-This coming weekend is the last weekend for most of the FCS teams. I'm going to try and forecast the playoff pairings after I get done with this week's rankings. A good explanation of the specifics of the playoffs can be found here.
-I think the ACC should forgo all their bowl games, and just play other ACC teams, those will be far more entertaining, since all the teams are evenly matched. Other than Duke and NC State, the entire league is between 3-3 and 4-2 in conference.
-If the Big Ten gets two teams in the BCS they could be an underdog in all, or almost all of their bowl games. Penn State vs USC in the Rose, OSU vs the SEC CG loser in the Sugar, MSU vs either Georgia or LSU in the Cap One, Northwestern against the other in the Outback, Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State in the Alamo, Iowa vs Kansas in the Insight, Illinois vs some random ACC team in the Micron PC, and Minnesota vs Ball State or CMU in the Motor City. I know a lot can change in a few weeks, but that doesn't look like a good bowl season for the Big Ten.

Golden Rankings, Week 12

2008-11-18T02:56:00.002-05:00

Texas holds on to the top spot after their win over Kansas. It will be interesting to see what happens if OU beats Tech this Saturday. Meanwhile, Florida jumps up a few spots with their destruction of South Carolina.

Top Riser (FBS) - Houston, up 25 places
Biggest Loser (FBS): Wake Forest, down 26
Top Riser (FCS) : Central Connecticut State, up 14
Biggest Loser (FCS): Dayton, down 44
Toughest Schedule (FBS): Virginia, Opponent average - 45.50
Weakest Schedule (FBS): Ball State, 147.80
Toughest Schedule (FCS): Chattanooga, 94.90
Weakest Schedule (FCS): Sacred Heart, 194.89

The ACC and the SEC continue their dance at 2 and 3, with the Big 12 still holding firm at #1. The Big Ten still sucks only slightly less than the Big East, and the Mountain West still owns the Pac Ten.